Qinghua Xing

Penghai Zhao, Qinghua Xing, Kairan Dou et al.

As the academic landscape expands, the challenge of efficiently identifying impactful newly published articles grows increasingly vital. This paper introduces a promising approach, leveraging the capabilities of LLMs to predict the future impact of newborn articles solely based on titles and abstracts. Moving beyond traditional methods heavily reliant on external information, the proposed method employs LLM to discern the shared semantic features of highly impactful papers from a large collection of title-abstract pairs. These semantic features are further utilized to predict the proposed indicator, TNCSI_SP, which incorporates favorable normalization properties across value, field, and time. To facilitate parameter-efficient fine-tuning of the LLM, we have also meticulously curated a dataset containing over 12,000 entries, each annotated with titles, abstracts, and their corresponding TNCSI_SP values. The quantitative results, with an MAE of 0.216 and an NDCG@20 of 0.901, demonstrate that the proposed approach achieves state-of-the-art performance in predicting the impact of newborn articles when compared to several promising methods. Finally, we present a real-world application example for predicting the impact of newborn journal articles to demonstrate its noteworthy practical value. Overall, our findings challenge existing paradigms and propose a shift towards a more content-focused prediction of academic impact, offering new insights for article impact prediction.

Penghai Zhao, Jinyu Tian, Qinghua Xing et al.

The ability to estimate the quality of scientific papers is central to how both humans and AI systems will advance scientific knowledge in the future. However, existing LLM-based estimation methods suffer from high inference cost, whereas the faster direct score regression approach is limited by scale inconsistencies. We present NAIPv2, a debiased and efficient framework for paper quality estimation. NAIPv2 employs pairwise learning within domain-year groups to reduce inconsistencies in reviewer ratings and introduces the Review Tendency Signal (RTS) as a probabilistic integration of reviewer scores and confidences. To support training and evaluation, we further construct NAIDv2, a large-scale dataset of 24,276 ICLR submissions enriched with metadata and detailed structured content. Trained on pairwise comparisons but enabling efficient pointwise prediction at deployment, NAIPv2 achieves state-of-the-art performance (78.2% AUC, 0.432 Spearman), while maintaining scalable, linear-time efficiency at inference. Notably, on unseen NeurIPS submissions, it further demonstrates strong generalization, with predicted scores increasing consistently across decision categories from Rejected to Oral. These findings establish NAIPv2 as a debiased and scalable framework for automated paper quality estimation, marking a step toward future scientific intelligence systems. Code and dataset are released at sway.cloud.microsoft/Pr42npP80MfPhvj8.