Andrew S. Lan

Fareya Ikram, Nischal Ashok Kumar, Junyang Lu et al.

Students benefit from math problems contextualized to their interests. Large language models (LLMs) offer promise for efficient personalization at scale. However, LLM-generated personalized problems may often have problems such as unrealistic quantities and contexts, poor readability, limited authenticity with respect to students' experiences, and occasional mathematical inconsistencies. To alleviate these problems, we propose a multi-agent framework that formalizes personalization as an iterative generate--validate--revise process; we use four specialized validator agents targeting the criteria of solvability, realism, readability, and authenticity, respectively. We evaluate our framework on 600 problems drawn from a popular online mathematics homework platform, ASSISTments, personalizing each problem to a fixed set of 20 student interest topics. We compare three refinement strategies that differ in how validation feedback is coordinated into revisions. Results show that authenticity and realism are the most frequent failure modes in initial LLM-personalized problems, but that a single refinement iteration substantially reduces these failures. We further find that different refinement strategies have different strengths on different criteria. We also assess validator reliability via human evaluation. Results show that reliability is highest on realism and lowest on authenticity, highlighting the need for better evaluation protocols that consider teachers' and students' personal characteristics.

Nigel Fernandez, Branislav Kveton, Ryan A. Rossi et al.

Reasoning language models have demonstrated remarkable performance on many challenging tasks in math, science, and coding. Choosing the right reasoning model for practical deployment involves a performance and cost tradeoff at two key levels: model size and reasoning budget, where larger models and higher reasoning budget lead to better performance but with increased cost and latency. In this work, we tackle this tradeoff from the angle of model configuration routing for different queries, and present RADAR (Reasoning-Ability and Difficulty-Aware Routing), a lightweight, interpretable, and scalable routing framework. Inspired by psychometrics, RADAR learns an item response model from model responses with different budgets to different queries, with interpretable parameters including query difficulties and model-budget abilities. RADAR then routes queries with higher difficulty to model-budget pairs with higher ability, and vice versa. We conduct extensive experiments on 8 widely used challenging reasoning benchmarks, demonstrating the superior performance of RADAR compared to state-of-the-art model routing methods. RADAR also exhibits query generalization capabilities, showing strong performance on out-of-distribution queries in all benchmarks. RADAR is also scalable and can efficiently integrate additional models by dynamically selecting a small set of evaluation queries to estimate their abilities.

Wanyong Feng, Aritra Ghosh, Stephen Sireci et al.

Computerized adaptive testing (CAT) is a form of personalized testing that accurately measures students' knowledge levels while reducing test length. Bilevel optimization-based CAT (BOBCAT) is a recent framework that learns a data-driven question selection algorithm to effectively reduce test length and improve test accuracy. However, it suffers from high question exposure and test overlap rates, which potentially affects test security. This paper introduces a constrained version of BOBCAT to address these problems by changing its optimization setup and enabling us to trade off test accuracy for question exposure and test overlap rates. We show that C-BOBCAT is effective through extensive experiments on two real-world adult testing datasets.

Yun-Wei Chu, Elizabeth Tenorio, Laura Cruz et al.

We study the problem of predicting student knowledge acquisition in online courses from clickstream behavior. Motivated by the proliferation of eLearning lecture delivery, we specifically focus on student in-video activity in lectures videos, which consist of content and in-video quizzes. Our methodology for predicting in-video quiz performance is based on three key ideas we develop. First, we model students' clicking behavior via time-series learning architectures operating on raw event data, rather than defining hand-crafted features as in existing approaches that may lose important information embedded within the click sequences. Second, we develop a self-supervised clickstream pre-training to learn informative representations of clickstream events that can initialize the prediction model effectively. Third, we propose a clustering guided meta-learning-based training that optimizes the prediction model to exploit clusters of frequent patterns in student clickstream sequences. Through experiments on three real-world datasets, we demonstrate that our method obtains substantial improvements over two baseline models in predicting students' in-video quiz performance. Further, we validate the importance of the pre-training and meta-learning components of our framework through ablation studies. Finally, we show how our methodology reveals insights on video-watching behavior associated with knowledge acquisition for useful learning analytics.

Zichao Wang, Andrew S. Lan, Richard G. Baraniuk

We study the problem of generating arithmetic math word problems (MWPs) given a math equation that specifies the mathematical computation and a context that specifies the problem scenario. Existing approaches are prone to generating MWPs that are either mathematically invalid or have unsatisfactory language quality. They also either ignore the context or require manual specification of a problem template, which compromises the diversity of the generated MWPs. In this paper, we develop a novel MWP generation approach that leverages i) pre-trained language models and a context keyword selection model to improve the language quality of the generated MWPs and ii) an equation consistency constraint for math equations to improve the mathematical validity of the generated MWPs. Extensive quantitative and qualitative experiments on three real-world MWP datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our approach compared to various baselines.

Aritra Ghosh, Neil Heffernan, Andrew S. Lan

Knowledge tracing (KT) refers to the problem of predicting future learner performance given their past performance in educational applications. Recent developments in KT using flexible deep neural network-based models excel at this task. However, these models often offer limited interpretability, thus making them insufficient for personalized learning, which requires using interpretable feedback and actionable recommendations to help learners achieve better learning outcomes. In this paper, we propose attentive knowledge tracing (AKT), which couples flexible attention-based neural network models with a series of novel, interpretable model components inspired by cognitive and psychometric models. AKT uses a novel monotonic attention mechanism that relates a learner's future responses to assessment questions to their past responses; attention weights are computed using exponential decay and a context-aware relative distance measure, in addition to the similarity between questions. Moreover, we use the Rasch model to regularize the concept and question embeddings; these embeddings are able to capture individual differences among questions on the same concept without using an excessive number of parameters. We conduct experiments on several real-world benchmark datasets and show that AKT outperforms existing KT methods (by up to $6\%$ in AUC in some cases) on predicting future learner responses. We also conduct several case studies and show that AKT exhibits excellent interpretability and thus has potential for automated feedback and personalization in real-world educational settings.

Shashank Sonkar, Andrew E. Waters, Andrew S. Lan et al.

Knowledge tracing (KT) models, e.g., the deep knowledge tracing (DKT) model, track an individual learner's acquisition of skills over time by examining the learner's performance on questions related to those skills. A practical limitation in most existing KT models is that all questions nested under a particular skill are treated as equivalent observations of a learner's ability, which is an inaccurate assumption in real-world educational scenarios. To overcome this limitation we introduce qDKT, a variant of DKT that models every learner's success probability on individual questions over time. First, qDKT incorporates graph Laplacian regularization to smooth predictions under each skill, which is particularly useful when the number of questions in the dataset is big. Second, qDKT uses an initialization scheme inspired by the fastText algorithm, which has found success in a variety of language modeling tasks. Our experiments on several real-world datasets show that qDKT achieves state-of-art performance on predicting learner outcomes. Because of this, qDKT can serve as a simple, yet tough-to-beat, baseline for new question-centric KT models.

Tsung-Yen Yang, Andrew S. Lan, Karthik Narasimhan

Learning representations of spatial references in natural language is a key challenge in tasks like autonomous navigation and robotic manipulation. Recent work has investigated various neural architectures for learning multi-modal representations for spatial concepts. However, the lack of explicit reasoning over entities makes such approaches vulnerable to noise in input text or state observations. In this paper, we develop effective models for understanding spatial references in text that are robust and interpretable, without sacrificing performance. We design a text-conditioned \textit{relation network} whose parameters are dynamically computed with a cross-modal attention module to capture fine-grained spatial relations between entities. This design choice provides interpretability of learned intermediate outputs. Experiments across three tasks demonstrate that our model achieves superior performance, with a 17\% improvement in predicting goal locations and a 15\% improvement in robustness compared to state-of-the-art systems.

Ramina Ghods, Andrew S. Lan, Tom Goldstein et al.

Deep neural networks achieve state-of-the-art performance for a range of classification and inference tasks. However, the use of stochastic gradient descent combined with the nonconvexity of the underlying optimization problems renders parameter learning susceptible to initialization. To address this issue, a variety of methods that rely on random parameter initialization or knowledge distillation have been proposed in the past. In this paper, we propose FuseInit, a novel method to initialize shallower networks by fusing neighboring layers of deeper networks that are trained with random initialization. We develop theoretical results and efficient algorithms for mean-square error (MSE)-optimal fusion of neighboring dense-dense, convolutional-dense, and convolutional-convolutional layers. We show experiments for a range of classification and regression datasets, which suggest that deeper neural networks are less sensitive to initialization and shallower networks can perform better (sometimes as well as their deeper counterparts) if initialized with FuseInit.

Indu Manickam, Andrew S. Lan, Gautam Dasarathy et al.

The 2016 United States presidential election has been characterized as a period of extreme divisiveness that was exacerbated on social media by the influence of fake news, trolls, and social bots. However, the extent to which the public became more polarized in response to these influences over the course of the election is not well understood. In this paper we propose IdeoTrace, a framework for (i) jointly estimating the ideology of social media users and news websites and (ii) tracing changes in user ideology over time. We apply this framework to the last two months of the election period for a group of 47508 Twitter users and demonstrate that both liberal and conservative users became more polarized over time.

Andrew S. Lan, Mung Chiang, Christoph Studer

The Rasch model is widely used for item response analysis in applications ranging from recommender systems to psychology, education, and finance. While a number of estimators have been proposed for the Rasch model over the last decades, the available analytical performance guarantees are mostly asymptotic. This paper provides a framework that relies on a novel linear minimum mean-squared error (L-MMSE) estimator which enables an exact, nonasymptotic, and closed-form analysis of the parameter estimation error under the Rasch model. The proposed framework provides guidelines on the number of items and responses required to attain low estimation errors in tests or surveys. We furthermore demonstrate its efficacy on a number of real-world collaborative filtering datasets, which reveals that the proposed L-MMSE estimator performs on par with state-of-the-art nonlinear estimators in terms of predictive performance.

Ramina Ghods, Andrew S. Lan, Tom Goldstein et al.

Phase retrieval refers to the problem of recovering real- or complex-valued vectors from magnitude measurements. The best-known algorithms for this problem are iterative in nature and rely on so-called spectral initializers that provide accurate initialization vectors. We propose a novel class of estimators suitable for general nonlinear measurement systems, called linear spectral estimators (LSPEs), which can be used to compute accurate initialization vectors for phase retrieval problems. The proposed LSPEs not only provide accurate initialization vectors for noisy phase retrieval systems with structured or random measurement matrices, but also enable the derivation of sharp and nonasymptotic mean-squared error bounds. We demonstrate the efficacy of LSPEs on synthetic and real-world phase retrieval problems, and show that our estimators significantly outperform existing methods for structured measurement systems that arise in practice.

Andrew S. Lan, Mung Chiang, Christoph Studer

Probit regression was first proposed by Bliss in 1934 to study mortality rates of insects. Since then, an extensive body of work has analyzed and used probit or related binary regression methods (such as logistic regression) in numerous applications and fields. This paper provides a fresh angle to such well-established binary regression methods. Concretely, we demonstrate that linearizing the probit model in combination with linear estimators performs on par with state-of-the-art nonlinear regression methods, such as posterior mean or maximum aposteriori estimation, for a broad range of real-world regression problems. We derive exact, closed-form, and nonasymptotic expressions for the mean-squared error of our linearized estimators, which clearly separates them from nonlinear regression methods that are typically difficult to analyze. We showcase the efficacy of our methods and results for a number of synthetic and real-world datasets, which demonstrates that linearized binary regression finds potential use in a variety of inference, estimation, signal processing, and machine learning applications that deal with binary-valued observations or measurements.

Joshua J. Michalenko, Andrew S. Lan, Richard G. Baraniuk

An important, yet largely unstudied, problem in student data analysis is to detect misconceptions from students' responses to open-response questions. Misconception detection enables instructors to deliver more targeted feedback on the misconceptions exhibited by many students in their class, thus improving the quality of instruction. In this paper, we propose a new natural language processing-based framework to detect the common misconceptions among students' textual responses to short-answer questions. We propose a probabilistic model for students' textual responses involving misconceptions and experimentally validate it on a real-world student-response dataset. Experimental results show that our proposed framework excels at classifying whether a response exhibits one or more misconceptions. More importantly, it can also automatically detect the common misconceptions exhibited across responses from multiple students to multiple questions; this property is especially important at large scale, since instructors will no longer need to manually specify all possible misconceptions that students might exhibit.

Andrew S. Lan, Divyanshu Vats, Andrew E. Waters et al.

While computer and communication technologies have provided effective means to scale up many aspects of education, the submission and grading of assessments such as homework assignments and tests remains a weak link. In this paper, we study the problem of automatically grading the kinds of open response mathematical questions that figure prominently in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) courses. Our data-driven framework for mathematical language processing (MLP) leverages solution data from a large number of learners to evaluate the correctness of their solutions, assign partial-credit scores, and provide feedback to each learner on the likely locations of any errors. MLP takes inspiration from the success of natural language processing for text data and comprises three main steps. First, we convert each solution to an open response mathematical question into a series of numerical features. Second, we cluster the features from several solutions to uncover the structures of correct, partially correct, and incorrect solutions. We develop two different clustering approaches, one that leverages generic clustering algorithms and one based on Bayesian nonparametrics. Third, we automatically grade the remaining (potentially large number of) solutions based on their assigned cluster and one instructor-provided grade per cluster. As a bonus, we can track the cluster assignment of each step of a multistep solution and determine when it departs from a cluster of correct solutions, which enables us to indicate the likely locations of errors to learners. We test and validate MLP on real-world MOOC data to demonstrate how it can substantially reduce the human effort required in large-scale educational platforms.

Andrew S. Lan, Christoph Studer, Richard G. Baraniuk

The recently proposed SPARse Factor Analysis (SPARFA) framework for personalized learning performs factor analysis on ordinal or binary-valued (e.g., correct/incorrect) graded learner responses to questions. The underlying factors are termed "concepts" (or knowledge components) and are used for learning analytics (LA), the estimation of learner concept-knowledge profiles, and for content analytics (CA), the estimation of question-concept associations and question difficulties. While SPARFA is a powerful tool for LA and CA, it requires a number of algorithm parameters (including the number of concepts), which are difficult to determine in practice. In this paper, we propose SPARFA-Lite, a convex optimization-based method for LA that builds on matrix completion, which only requires a single algorithm parameter and enables us to automatically identify the required number of concepts. Using a variety of educational datasets, we demonstrate that SPARFALite (i) achieves comparable performance in predicting unobserved learner responses to existing methods, including item response theory (IRT) and SPARFA, and (ii) is computationally more efficient.

Andrew S. Lan, Christoph Studer, Andrew E. Waters et al.

Machine learning offers novel ways and means to design personalized learning systems wherein each student's educational experience is customized in real time depending on their background, learning goals, and performance to date. SPARse Factor Analysis (SPARFA) is a novel framework for machine learning-based learning analytics, which estimates a learner's knowledge of the concepts underlying a domain, and content analytics, which estimates the relationships among a collection of questions and those concepts. SPARFA jointly learns the associations among the questions and the concepts, learner concept knowledge profiles, and the underlying question difficulties, solely based on the correct/incorrect graded responses of a population of learners to a collection of questions. In this paper, we extend the SPARFA framework significantly to enable: (i) the analysis of graded responses on an ordinal scale (partial credit) rather than a binary scale (correct/incorrect); (ii) the exploitation of tags/labels for questions that partially describe the question{concept associations. The resulting Ordinal SPARFA-Tag framework greatly enhances the interpretability of the estimated concepts. We demonstrate using real educational data that Ordinal SPARFA-Tag outperforms both SPARFA and existing collaborative filtering techniques in predicting missing learner responses.

Andrew S. Lan, Christoph Studer, Richard G. Baraniuk

We propose SPARFA-Trace, a new machine learning-based framework for time-varying learning and content analytics for education applications. We develop a novel message passing-based, blind, approximate Kalman filter for sparse factor analysis (SPARFA), that jointly (i) traces learner concept knowledge over time, (ii) analyzes learner concept knowledge state transitions (induced by interacting with learning resources, such as textbook sections, lecture videos, etc, or the forgetting effect), and (iii) estimates the content organization and intrinsic difficulty of the assessment questions. These quantities are estimated solely from binary-valued (correct/incorrect) graded learner response data and a summary of the specific actions each learner performs (e.g., answering a question or studying a learning resource) at each time instance. Experimental results on two online course datasets demonstrate that SPARFA-Trace is capable of tracing each learner's concept knowledge evolution over time, as well as analyzing the quality and content organization of learning resources, the question-concept associations, and the question intrinsic difficulties. Moreover, we show that SPARFA-Trace achieves comparable or better performance in predicting unobserved learner responses than existing collaborative filtering and knowledge tracing approaches for personalized education.

Andrew S. Lan, Christoph Studer, Andrew E. Waters et al.

Modern machine learning methods are critical to the development of large-scale personalized learning systems that cater directly to the needs of individual learners. The recently developed SPARse Factor Analysis (SPARFA) framework provides a new statistical model and algorithms for machine learning-based learning analytics, which estimate a learner's knowledge of the latent concepts underlying a domain, and content analytics, which estimate the relationships among a collection of questions and the latent concepts. SPARFA estimates these quantities given only the binary-valued graded responses to a collection of questions. In order to better interpret the estimated latent concepts, SPARFA relies on a post-processing step that utilizes user-defined tags (e.g., topics or keywords) available for each question. In this paper, we relax the need for user-defined tags by extending SPARFA to jointly process both graded learner responses and the text of each question and its associated answer(s) or other feedback. Our purely data-driven approach (i) enhances the interpretability of the estimated latent concepts without the need of explicitly generating a set of tags or performing a post-processing step, (ii) improves the prediction performance of SPARFA, and (iii) scales to large test/assessments where human annotation would prove burdensome. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach on two real educational datasets.

Andrew S. Lan, Andrew E. Waters, Christoph Studer et al.

We develop a new model and algorithms for machine learning-based learning analytics, which estimate a learner's knowledge of the concepts underlying a domain, and content analytics, which estimate the relationships among a collection of questions and those concepts. Our model represents the probability that a learner provides the correct response to a question in terms of three factors: their understanding of a set of underlying concepts, the concepts involved in each question, and each question's intrinsic difficulty. We estimate these factors given the graded responses to a collection of questions. The underlying estimation problem is ill-posed in general, especially when only a subset of the questions are answered. The key observation that enables a well-posed solution is the fact that typical educational domains of interest involve only a small number of key concepts. Leveraging this observation, we develop both a bi-convex maximum-likelihood and a Bayesian solution to the resulting SPARse Factor Analysis (SPARFA) problem. We also incorporate user-defined tags on questions to facilitate the interpretability of the estimated factors. Experiments with synthetic and real-world data demonstrate the efficacy of our approach. Finally, we make a connection between SPARFA and noisy, binary-valued (1-bit) dictionary learning that is of independent interest.