Matthew Cleaveland

Matthew Cleaveland, Insup Lee, George J. Pappas et al.

Conformal prediction is a statistical tool for producing prediction regions of machine learning models that are valid with high probability. However, applying conformal prediction to time series data leads to conservative prediction regions. In fact, to obtain prediction regions over $T$ time steps with confidence $1-δ$, {previous works require that each individual prediction region is valid} with confidence $1-δ/T$. We propose an optimization-based method for reducing this conservatism to enable long horizon planning and verification when using learning-enabled time series predictors. Instead of considering prediction errors individually at each time step, we consider a parameterized prediction error over multiple time steps. By optimizing the parameters over an additional dataset, we find prediction regions that are not conservative. We show that this problem can be cast as a mixed integer linear complementarity program (MILCP), which we then relax into a linear complementarity program (LCP). Additionally, we prove that the relaxed LP has the same optimal cost as the original MILCP. Finally, we demonstrate the efficacy of our method on case studies using pedestrian trajectory predictors and F16 fighter jet altitude predictors.

Matthew Cleaveland, Lars Lindemann, Radoslav Ivanov et al.

Motivated by the fragility of neural network (NN) controllers in safety-critical applications, we present a data-driven framework for verifying the risk of stochastic dynamical systems with NN controllers. Given a stochastic control system, an NN controller, and a specification equipped with a notion of trace robustness (e.g., constraint functions or signal temporal logic), we collect trajectories from the system that may or may not satisfy the specification. In particular, each of the trajectories produces a robustness value that indicates how well (severely) the specification is satisfied (violated). We then compute risk metrics over these robustness values to estimate the risk that the NN controller will not satisfy the specification. We are further interested in quantifying the difference in risk between two systems, and we show how the risk estimated from a nominal system can provide an upper bound the risk of a perturbed version of the system. In particular, the tightness of this bound depends on the closeness of the systems in terms of the closeness of their system trajectories. For Lipschitz continuous and incrementally input-to-state stable systems, we show how to exactly quantify system closeness with varying degrees of conservatism, while we estimate system closeness for more general systems from data in our experiments. We demonstrate our risk verification approach on two case studies, an underwater vehicle and an F1/10 autonomous car.

Souradeep Dutta, Michele Caprio, Vivian Lin et al.

A particularly challenging problem in AI safety is providing guarantees on the behavior of high-dimensional autonomous systems. Verification approaches centered around reachability analysis fail to scale, and purely statistical approaches are constrained by the distributional assumptions about the sampling process. Instead, we pose a distributionally robust version of the statistical verification problem for black-box systems, where our performance guarantees hold over a large family of distributions. This paper proposes a novel approach based on uncertainty quantification using concepts from imprecise probabilities. A central piece of our approach is an ensemble technique called Imprecise Neural Networks, which provides the uncertainty quantification. Additionally, we solve the allied problem of exploring the input set using active learning. The active learning uses an exhaustive neural-network verification tool Sherlock to collect samples. An evaluation on multiple physical simulators in the openAI gym Mujoco environments with reinforcement-learned controllers demonstrates that our approach can provide useful and scalable guarantees for high-dimensional systems.

Pengyuan Lu, Ivan Ruchkin, Matthew Cleaveland et al.

Models of actual causality leverage domain knowledge to generate convincing diagnoses of events that caused an outcome. It is promising to apply these models to diagnose and repair run-time property violations in cyber-physical systems (CPS) with learning-enabled components (LEC). However, given the high diversity and complexity of LECs, it is challenging to encode domain knowledge (e.g., the CPS dynamics) in a scalable actual causality model that could generate useful repair suggestions. In this paper, we focus causal diagnosis on the input/output behaviors of LECs. Specifically, we aim to identify which subset of I/O behaviors of the LEC is an actual cause for a property violation. An important by-product is a counterfactual version of the LEC that repairs the run-time property by fixing the identified problematic behaviors. Based on this insights, we design a two-step diagnostic pipeline: (1) construct and Halpern-Pearl causality model that reflects the dependency of property outcome on the component's I/O behaviors, and (2) perform a search for an actual cause and corresponding repair on the model. We prove that our pipeline has the following guarantee: if an actual cause is found, the system is guaranteed to be repaired; otherwise, we have high probabilistic confidence that the LEC under analysis did not cause the property violation. We demonstrate that our approach successfully repairs learned controllers on a standard OpenAI Gym benchmark.

Junyang Cai, Weimin Huang, Brendan Long et al.

Autonomous systems must solve motion planning problems subject to increasingly complex, time-sensitive, and uncertain missions. These problems often involve high-level task specifications, such as temporal logic or chance constraints, which require solving large-scale Mixed-Integer Linear Programs (MILPs). However, existing MILP-based planning methods suffer from high computational cost and limited scalability, hindering their real-time applicability. We propose to use a neuro-symbolic approach to accelerate MILP-based motion planning by leveraging machine learning techniques to guide the solver's symbolic search. Focusing on three representative classes of diverse planning problems - Signal Temporal Logic (STL) specifications, chance constraints formulated via Conformal Predictive Programming (CPP), and Capability Temporal Logic (CaTL) specifications - we demonstrate how graph neural network-based learning methods can guide traditional symbolic MILP solvers in solving challenging planning problems, including branching variable selection and solver parameter configuration. Through extensive experiments, we show that neuro-symbolic search techniques yield scalability gains. Our approach yields substantial improvements across all three classes of planning problems, achieving an average performance gain of about 20% over state-of-the-art solver across key metrics, including runtime and solution quality.

Oswin So, Eric Yang Yu, Songyuan Zhang et al. · mit

Recent advances in deep reinforcement learning (RL) have achieved strong results on high-dimensional control tasks, but applying RL to reachability problems raises a fundamental mismatch: reachability seeks to maximize the set of states from which a system remains safe indefinitely, while RL optimizes expected returns over a user-specified distribution. This mismatch can result in policies that perform poorly on low-probability states that are still within the safe set. A natural alternative is to frame the problem as a robust optimization over a set of initial conditions that specify the initial state, dynamics and safe set, but whether this problem has a solution depends on the feasibility of the specified set, which is unknown a priori. We propose Feasibility-Guided Exploration (FGE), a method that simultaneously identifies a subset of feasible initial conditions under which a safe policy exists, and learns a policy to solve the reachability problem over this set of initial conditions. Empirical results demonstrate that FGE learns policies with over 50% more coverage than the best existing method for challenging initial conditions across tasks in the MuJoCo simulator and the Kinetix simulator with pixel observations.

Yixuan Wang, Danyang Li, Matthew Cleaveland et al.

Signal Temporal Logic (STL) inference learns interpretable logical rules for temporal behaviors in dynamical systems. To ensure the correctness of learned STL formulas, recent approaches have incorporated conformal prediction as a statistical tool for uncertainty quantification. However, most existing methods rely on the assumption that calibration and testing data are identically distributed and exchangeable, an assumption that is frequently violated in real-world settings. This paper proposes a conformalized STL inference framework that explicitly addresses covariate shift between training and deployment trajectories dataset. From a technical standpoint, the approach first employs a template-free, differentiable STL inference method to learn an initial model, and subsequently refines it using a limited deployment side dataset to promote distribution alignment. To provide validity guarantees under distribution shift, the framework estimates the likelihood ratio between training and deployment distributions and integrates it into an STL-robustness-based weighted conformal prediction scheme. Experimental results on trajectory datasets demonstrate that the proposed framework preserves the interpretability of STL formulas while significantly improving symbolic learning reliability at deployment time.

Harmeet Dhillon, Pranay Katyal, Brendan Long et al.

In multi-robot systems, traditional radio frequency (RF) communication struggles with contention and jamming. Optical communication offers a strong alternative. However, conventional frame-based cameras suffer from limited frame rates, motion blur, and reduced robustness under high dynamic range lighting. Event cameras support microsecond temporal resolution and high dynamic range, making them extremely sensitive to scene changes under fast relative motion with an optical transmitter. Leveraging these strengths, we develop a complete optical communication system capable of tracking moving transmitters and decoding messages in real time. Our system achieves over $95\%$ decoding accuracy for text transmission during motion by implementing a Geometry-Aware Unscented Kalman Filter (GA-UKF), achieving 7x faster processing speed compared to the previous state-of-the-art method, while maintaining equivalent tracking accuracy at transmitting frequencies $\geq$ 1 kHz.

Renukanandan Tumu, Matthew Cleaveland, Rahul Mangharam et al.

Conformal prediction is a statistical tool for producing prediction regions for machine learning models that are valid with high probability. A key component of conformal prediction algorithms is a \emph{non-conformity score function} that quantifies how different a model's prediction is from the unknown ground truth value. Essentially, these functions determine the shape and the size of the conformal prediction regions. While prior work has gone into creating score functions that produce multi-model prediction regions, such regions are generally too complex for use in downstream planning and control problems. We propose a method that optimizes parameterized \emph{shape template functions} over calibration data, which results in non-conformity score functions that produce prediction regions with minimum volume. Our approach results in prediction regions that are \emph{multi-modal}, so they can properly capture residuals of distributions that have multiple modes, and \emph{practical}, so each region is convex and can be easily incorporated into downstream tasks, such as a motion planner using conformal prediction regions. Our method applies to general supervised learning tasks, while we illustrate its use in time-series prediction. We provide a toolbox and present illustrative case studies of F16 fighter jets and autonomous vehicles, showing an up to $68\%$ reduction in prediction region area compared to a circular baseline region.

Songyuan Zhang, Oswin So, H. M. Sabbir Ahmad et al.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) aims to learn the optimal policy from a fixed dataset generated by behavior policies without additional environment interactions. One common challenge that arises in this setting is the out-of-distribution (OOD) error, which occurs when the policy leaves the training distribution. Prior methods penalize a statistical distance term to keep the policy close to the behavior policy, but this constrains policy improvement and may not completely prevent OOD actions. Another challenge is that the optimal policy distribution can be multimodal and difficult to represent. Recent works apply diffusion or flow policies to address this problem, but it is unclear how to avoid OOD errors while retaining policy expressiveness. We propose ReFORM, an offline RL method based on flow policies that enforces the less restrictive support constraint by construction. ReFORM learns a behavior cloning (BC) flow policy with a bounded source distribution to capture the support of the action distribution, then optimizes a reflected flow that generates bounded noise for the BC flow while keeping the support, to maximize the performance. Across 40 challenging tasks from the OGBench benchmark with datasets of varying quality and using a constant set of hyperparameters for all tasks, ReFORM dominates all baselines with hand-tuned hyperparameters on the performance profile curves.

Danyang Li, Yixuan Wang, Matthew Cleaveland et al.

Signal Temporal Logic (STL) inference seeks to extract human-interpretable rules from time-series data, but existing methods lack formal confidence guarantees for the inferred rules. Conformal prediction (CP) is a technique that can provide statistical correctness guarantees, but is typically applied as a post-training wrapper without improving model learning. Instead, we introduce an end-to-end differentiable CP framework for STL inference that enhances both reliability and interpretability of the resulting formulas. We introduce a robustness-based nonconformity score, embed a smooth CP layer directly into training, and employ a new loss function that simultaneously optimizes inference accuracy and CP prediction sets with a single term. Following training, an exact CP procedure delivers statistical guarantees for the learned STL formulas. Experiments on benchmark time-series tasks show that our approach reduces uncertainty in predictions (i.e., it achieves high coverage while reducing prediction set size), and improves accuracy (i.e., the number of misclassifications when using a fixed threshold) over state-of-the-art baselines.

Ivan Ruchkin, Matthew Cleaveland, Radoslav Ivanov et al.

Closed-loop verification of cyber-physical systems with neural network controllers offers strong safety guarantees under certain assumptions. It is, however, difficult to determine whether these guarantees apply at run time because verification assumptions may be violated. To predict safety violations in a verified system, we propose a three-step confidence composition (CoCo) framework for monitoring verification assumptions. First, we represent the sufficient condition for verified safety with a propositional logical formula over assumptions. Second, we build calibrated confidence monitors that evaluate the probability that each assumption holds. Third, we obtain the confidence in the verification guarantees by composing the assumption monitors using a composition function suitable for the logical formula. Our CoCo framework provides theoretical bounds on the calibration and conservatism of compositional monitors. Two case studies show that compositional monitors are calibrated better than their constituents and successfully predict safety violations.

Lars Lindemann, Matthew Cleaveland, Yiannis Kantaros et al.

Motion planning is a fundamental problem and focuses on finding control inputs that enable a robot to reach a goal region while safely avoiding obstacles. However, in many situations, the state of the system may not be known but only estimated using, for instance, a Kalman filter. This results in a novel motion planning problem where safety must be ensured in the presence of state estimation uncertainty. Previous approaches to this problem are either conservative or integrate state estimates optimistically which leads to non-robust solutions. Optimistic solutions require frequent replanning to not endanger the safety of the system. We propose a new formulation to this problem with the aim to be robust to state estimation errors while not being overly conservative. In particular, we formulate a stochastic optimal control problem that contains robustified risk-aware safety constraints by incorporating robustness margins to account for state estimation errors. We propose a novel sampling-based approach that builds trees exploring the reachable space of Gaussian distributions that capture uncertainty both in state estimation and in future measurements. We provide robustness guarantees and show, both in theory and simulations, that the induced robustness margins constitute a trade-off between conservatism and robustness for planning under estimation uncertainty that allows to control the frequency of replanning.