Akash Kumar Panda

Akash Kumar Panda, Olaoluwa Adigun, Bart Kosko

We automatically generate feedback causal fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) from text by teaching large-language-model agents to break the text into overlapping chunks of text. Convex mixing of these chunk FCMs gives a representative cyclic FCM knowledge graph. The text chunks can have different levels of overlap. The chunk FCMs still mix to form a new FCM causal knowledge graph. The mixing technique scales because it uses light computation with sparse causal chunk matrices. The mixing structure allows an operator-level type of Bayesian inference that produces "de-chunked" or posterior-like FCMs from the mixed FCM. These de-chunked FCMs are useful in their own right and allow further iterations of Bayesian updating. We demonstrate these mixing techniques on the essay text of Allison's "Thucydides Trap" model of conflict between a dominant power such as the United States and a rising power such as China. The FCM dynamical systems predict outcomes as they equilibrate to fixed-point or limit-cycle attractors. Seven out of 8 FCM knowledge graphs predicted a type of war when we stimulated them by turning on and keeping on the concept node that stands for the rising power's ambition and entitlement. Gemini 3.1 LLMs served as the chunking AI agents.

Akash Kumar Panda, Olaoluwa Adigun, Bart Kosko

We design a large-language-model (LLM) agent system that extracts causal feedback fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) from raw text. The causal learning or extraction process is agentic both because of the LLM's semi-autonomy and because ultimately the FCM dynamical system's equilibria drive the LLM agents to fetch and process causal text. The fetched text can in principle modify the adaptive FCM causal structure and so modify the source of its quasi-autonomy$-$its equilibrium limit cycles and fixed-point attractors. This bidirectional process endows the evolving FCM dynamical system with a degree of autonomy while the system still stays on its agentic leash. We show in particular that a sequence of three system-instruction sets guide an LLM agent as it systematically extracts key nouns and noun phrases from text, as it extracts FCM concept nodes from among those nouns and noun phrases, and then as it extracts or infers partial or fuzzy causal edges between those FCM nodes. We test this FCM generation on a recent essay about the promise of AI from the late diplomat and political theorist Henry Kissinger and his colleagues. This three-step process produced FCM dynamical systems that converged to the same equilibrium limit cycles as did the human-generated FCMs even though the human-generated FCM differed in the number of nodes and edges. A final FCM mixed generated FCMs from separate Gemini and ChatGPT LLM agents. The mixed FCM absorbed the equilibria of its dominant mixture component but also created new equilibria of its own to better approximate the underlying causal dynamical system.

Akash Kumar Panda, Olaoluwa Adigun, Bart Kosko

A large language model (LLM) can map a feedback causal fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) into text and then reconstruct the FCM from the text. This explainable AI system approximates an identity map from the FCM to itself and resembles the operation of an autoencoder (AE). Both the encoder and the decoder explain their decisions in contrast to black-box AEs. Humans can read and interpret the encoded text in contrast to the hidden variables and synaptic webs in AEs. The LLM agent approximates the identity map through a sequence of system instructions that does not compare the output to the input. The reconstruction is lossy because it removes weak causal edges or rules while it preserves strong causal edges. The encoder preserves the strong causal edges even when it trades off some details about the FCM to make the text sound more natural.

Akash Kumar Panda, Bart Kosko

An adaptive multiexpert mixture of feedback causal models can approximate missing or phantom nodes in large-scale causal models. The result gives a scalable form of \emph{big knowledge}. The mixed model approximates a sampled dynamical system by approximating its main limit-cycle equilibria. Each expert first draws a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) with at least one missing causal node or variable. FCMs are directed signed partial-causality cyclic graphs. They mix naturally through convex combination to produce a new causal feedback FCM. Supervised learning helps each expert FCM estimate its phantom node by comparing the FCM's partial equilibrium with the complete multi-node equilibrium. Such phantom-node estimation allows partial control over these causal hallucinations and helps approximate the future trajectory of the dynamical system. But the approximation can be computationally heavy. Mixing the tuned expert FCMs gives a practical way to find several phantom nodes and thereby better approximate the feedback system's true equilibrium behavior.