Sebastian Zeng

Sebastian Zeng, Florian Graf, Roland Kwitt

We consider the problem of variational Bayesian inference in a latent variable model where a (possibly complex) observed stochastic process is governed by the solution of a latent stochastic differential equation (SDE). Motivated by the challenges that arise when trying to learn an (almost arbitrary) latent neural SDE from data, such as efficient gradient computation, we take a step back and study a specific subclass instead. In our case, the SDE evolves on a homogeneous latent space and is induced by stochastic dynamics of the corresponding (matrix) Lie group. In learning problems, SDEs on the unit n-sphere are arguably the most relevant incarnation of this setup. Notably, for variational inference, the sphere not only facilitates using a truly uninformative prior, but we also obtain a particularly simple and intuitive expression for the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the approximate posterior and prior process in the evidence lower bound. Experiments demonstrate that a latent SDE of the proposed type can be learned efficiently by means of an existing one-step geometric Euler-Maruyama scheme. Despite restricting ourselves to a less rich class of SDEs, we achieve competitive or even state-of-the-art results on various time series interpolation/classification problems.

Florian Graf, Sebastian Zeng, Bastian Rieck et al.

We study the excess capacity of deep networks in the context of supervised classification. That is, given a capacity measure of the underlying hypothesis class - in our case, empirical Rademacher complexity - to what extent can we (a priori) constrain this class while retaining an empirical error on a par with the unconstrained regime? To assess excess capacity in modern architectures (such as residual networks), we extend and unify prior Rademacher complexity bounds to accommodate function composition and addition, as well as the structure of convolutions. The capacity-driving terms in our bounds are the Lipschitz constants of the layers and an (2, 1) group norm distance to the initializations of the convolution weights. Experiments on benchmark datasets of varying task difficulty indicate that (1) there is a substantial amount of excess capacity per task, and (2) capacity can be kept at a surprisingly similar level across tasks. Overall, this suggests a notion of compressibility with respect to weight norms, complementary to classic compression via weight pruning. Source code is available at https://github.com/rkwitt/excess_capacity.

Sebastian Zeng, Andreas Petersson, Wolfgang Bock

We study the problem of learning the law of linear stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) with additive Gaussian forcing from spatiotemporal observations. Most existing deep learning approaches either assume access to the driving noise or initial condition, or rely on deterministic surrogate models that fail to capture intrinsic stochasticity. We propose a structured latent-variable formulation that requires only observations of solution realizations and learns the underlying randomly forced dynamics. Our approach combines a spectral Galerkin projection with a truncated Wiener chaos expansion, yielding a principled separation between deterministic evolution and stochastic forcing. This reduces the infinite-dimensional SPDE to a finite system of parametrized ordinary differential equations governing latent temporal dynamics. The latent dynamics and stochastic forcing are jointly inferred through variational learning, allowing recovery of stochastic structure without explicit observation or simulation of noise during training. Empirical evaluation on synthetic data demonstrates state-of-the-art performance under comparable modeling assumptions across bounded and unbounded one-dimensional spatial domains.

Sebastian Zeng, Florian Graf, Martin Uray et al.

We consider the problem of learning the dynamics in the topology of time-evolving point clouds, the prevalent spatiotemporal model for systems exhibiting collective behavior, such as swarms of insects and birds or particles in physics. In such systems, patterns emerge from (local) interactions among self-propelled entities. While several well-understood governing equations for motion and interaction exist, they are notoriously difficult to fit to data, as most prior work requires knowledge about individual motion trajectories, i.e., a requirement that is challenging to satisfy with an increasing number of entities. To evade such confounding factors, we investigate collective behavior from a $\textit{topological perspective}$, but instead of summarizing entire observation sequences (as done previously), we propose learning a latent dynamical model from topological features $\textit{per time point}$. The latter is then used to formulate a downstream regression task to predict the parametrization of some a priori specified governing equation. We implement this idea based on a latent ODE learned from vectorized (static) persistence diagrams and show that a combination of recent stability results for persistent homology justifies this modeling choice. Various (ablation) experiments not only demonstrate the relevance of each model component but provide compelling empirical evidence that our proposed model - $\textit{Neural Persistence Dynamics}$ - substantially outperforms the state-of-the-art across a diverse set of parameter regression tasks.

Sebastian Zeng, Florian Graf, Christoph Hofer et al.

The problem of (point) forecasting $ \textit{univariate} $ time series is considered. Most approaches, ranging from traditional statistical methods to recent learning-based techniques with neural networks, directly operate on raw time series observations. As an extension, we study whether $\textit{local topological properties}$, as captured via persistent homology, can serve as a reliable signal that provides complementary information for learning to forecast. To this end, we propose $\textit{topological attention}$, which allows attending to local topological features within a time horizon of historical data. Our approach easily integrates into existing end-to-end trainable forecasting models, such as $\texttt{N-BEATS}$, and in combination with the latter exhibits state-of-the-art performance on the large-scale M4 benchmark dataset of 100,000 diverse time series from different domains. Ablation experiments, as well as a comparison to a broad range of forecasting methods in a setting where only a single time series is available for training, corroborate the beneficial nature of including local topological information through an attention mechanism.