Wanfang Chen

Zheng Wang, Kaixuan Zhang, Wanfang Chen et al.

Sequential editing of structured knowledge in large language models allows targeted factual updates without retraining, yet existing methods often rely on complex regularization or constraint mechanisms whose necessity remains unclear. In this work, we systematically investigate the mechanisms underlying effective and stable sequential editing. Specifically, we first analyze the empirical success of AlphaEdit and establish, via a rigorous optimization analysis, the formal equivalence between one-time and sequential editing. Building on this insight, we generalize the equivalence to a broader class of editing objectives, demonstrating that stability emerges naturally from properly accounting for accumulated editing constraints, rather than from specialized regularization or null-space operations. We empirically confirm that many commonly used regularization strategies are unnecessary for reliable sequential updates. Furthermore, we extend our framework to handle conflicting edits, ensuring robust and consistent behavior under contradictory updates. Ultimately, our work provides Ariadne's thread through the labyrinth of sequential editing, charting a path toward simpler, more interpretable, and dependable knowledge updates. Our code is available at https://github.com/Wangzzzzzzzz/OTE-SE-Alignment.

Zheng Wang, Kaixuan Zhang, Wanfang Chen et al.

Time series forecasting remains a critical challenge across numerous domains, yet the effectiveness of complex models often varies unpredictably across datasets. Recent studies highlight the surprising competitiveness of simple linear models, suggesting that their robustness and interpretability warrant deeper theoretical investigation. This paper presents a systematic study of linear models for time series forecasting, with a focus on the role of characteristic roots in temporal dynamics. We begin by analyzing the noise-free setting, where we show that characteristic roots govern long-term behavior and explain how design choices such as instance normalization and channel independence affect model capabilities. We then extend our analysis to the noisy regime, revealing that models tend to produce spurious roots. This leads to the identification of a key data-scaling property: mitigating the influence of noise requires disproportionately large training data, highlighting the need for structural regularization. To address these challenges, we propose two complementary strategies for robust root restructuring. The first uses rank reduction techniques, including Reduced-Rank Regression and Direct Weight Rank Reduction, to recover the low-dimensional latent dynamics. The second, a novel adaptive method called Root Purge, encourages the model to learn a noise-suppressing null space during training. Extensive experiments on standard benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of both approaches, validating our theoretical insights and achieving state-of-the-art results in several settings. Our findings underscore the potential of integrating classical theories for linear systems with modern learning techniques to build robust, interpretable, and data-efficient forecasting models.

Wanfang Chen, Yuxiao Li, Brian J Reich et al.

In spatial statistics, a common objective is to predict values of a spatial process at unobserved locations by exploiting spatial dependence. Kriging provides the best linear unbiased predictor using covariance functions and is often associated with Gaussian processes. However, when considering non-linear prediction for non-Gaussian and categorical data, the Kriging prediction is no longer optimal, and the associated variance is often overly optimistic. Although deep neural networks (DNNs) are widely used for general classification and prediction, they have not been studied thoroughly for data with spatial dependence. In this work, we propose a novel DNN structure for spatial prediction, where the spatial dependence is captured by adding an embedding layer of spatial coordinates with basis functions. We show in theory and simulation studies that the proposed DeepKriging method has a direct link to Kriging in the Gaussian case, and it has multiple advantages over Kriging for non-Gaussian and non-stationary data, i.e., it provides non-linear predictions and thus has smaller approximation errors, it does not require operations on covariance matrices and thus is scalable for large datasets, and with sufficiently many hidden neurons, it provides the optimal prediction in terms of model capacity. We further explore the possibility of quantifying prediction uncertainties based on density prediction without assuming any data distribution. Finally, we apply the method to predicting PM2.5 concentrations across the continental United States.