Yuqiang Zhang

Henan Wang, Shengwu Xiong, Yifang Zhang et al.

Deep learning has significantly improved the accuracy of precipitation nowcasting. However, most existing multimodal models typically use simple channel concatenation or interpolation methods for data fusion, which often overlook the feature differences between different modalities. This paper therefore proposes a novel precipitation nowcasting optimisation framework called FusionCast. This framework incorporates three types of data: historical precipitable water vapour (PWV) data derived from global navigation satellite system (GNSS) inversions, historical radar based quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE), and forecasted radar QPE serving as a future prior. The FusionCast model comprises two core modules: the future prior radar QPE processing Module, which forecasts future radar data; and the Radar PWV Fusion (RPF) module, which uses a gate mechanism to efficiently combine features from various sources. Experimental results show that FusionCast significantly improves nowcasting performance.

Yifang Zhang, Shengwu Xiong, Henan Wang et al.

Global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) station-based Precipitation Nowcasting aims to predict rainfall within the next 0-6 hours by leveraging a GNSS station's historical observations of precipitation, GNSS-PWV, and related meteorological variables, which is crucial for disaster mitigation and real-time decision-making. In recent years, time-series forecasting approaches have been extensively applied to GNSS station-based precipitation nowcasting. However, the highly imbalanced temporal distribution of precipitation, marked not only by the dominance of non-rainfall events but also by the scarcity of extreme precipitation samples, significantly limits model performance in practical applications. To address the dual imbalance problem in precipitation nowcasting, we propose a continuous probability modeling-based framework, RainBalance. This plug-and-play module performs clustering for each input sample to obtain its cluster probability distribution, which is further mapped into a continuous latent space via a variational autoencoder (VAE). By learning in this continuous probabilistic space, the task is reformulated from fitting single and imbalance-prone precipitation labels to modeling continuous probabilistic label distributions, thereby alleviating the imbalance issue. We integrate this module into multiple state-of-the-art models and observe consistent performance gains. Comprehensive statistical analysis and ablation studies further validate the effectiveness of our approach.

Yifang Zhang, Shengwu Xiong, Henan Wang et al.

Precipitation Nowcasting, which aims to predict precipitation within the next 0 to 6 hours, is critical for disaster mitigation and real-time response planning. However, most time series forecasting benchmarks in meteorology are evaluated on variables with strong periodicity, such as temperature and humidity, which fail to reflect model capabilities in more complex and practically meteorology scenarios like precipitation nowcasting. To address this gap, we propose RainfallBench, a benchmark designed for precipitation nowcasting, a highly challenging and practically relevant task characterized by zero inflation, temporal decay, and non-stationarity, focusing on predicting precipitation within the next 0 to 6 hours. The dataset is derived from five years of meteorological observations, recorded at hourly intervals across six essential variables, and collected from more than 140 Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations globally. In particular, it incorporates precipitable water vapor (PWV), a crucial indicator of rainfall that is absent in other datasets. We further design specialized evaluation protocols to assess model performance on key meteorological challenges, including multi-scale prediction, multi-resolution forecasting, and extreme rainfall events, benchmarking 17 state-of-the-art models across six major architectures on RainfallBench. Additionally, to address the zero-inflation and temporal decay issues overlooked by existing models, we introduce Bi-Focus Precipitation Forecaster (BFPF), a plug-and-play module that incorporates domain-specific priors to enhance rainfall time series forecasting. Statistical analysis and ablation studies validate the comprehensiveness of our dataset as well as the superiority of our methodology.