Guangyi Chen

Tianpei Gu, Guangyi Chen, Junlong Li et al. · tsinghua

Human behavior has the nature of indeterminacy, which requires the pedestrian trajectory prediction system to model the multi-modality of future motion states. Unlike existing stochastic trajectory prediction methods which usually use a latent variable to represent multi-modality, we explicitly simulate the process of human motion variation from indeterminate to determinate. In this paper, we present a new framework to formulate the trajectory prediction task as a reverse process of motion indeterminacy diffusion (MID), in which we progressively discard indeterminacy from all the walkable areas until reaching the desired trajectory. This process is learned with a parameterized Markov chain conditioned by the observed trajectories. We can adjust the length of the chain to control the degree of indeterminacy and balance the diversity and determinacy of the predictions. Specifically, we encode the history behavior information and the social interactions as a state embedding and devise a Transformer-based diffusion model to capture the temporal dependencies of trajectories. Extensive experiments on the human trajectory prediction benchmarks including the Stanford Drone and ETH/UCY datasets demonstrate the superiority of our method. Code is available at https://github.com/gutianpei/MID.

Jinglin Xu, Yongming Rao, Xumin Yu et al. · tsinghua

Most existing action quality assessment methods rely on the deep features of an entire video to predict the score, which is less reliable due to the non-transparent inference process and poor interpretability. We argue that understanding both high-level semantics and internal temporal structures of actions in competitive sports videos is the key to making predictions accurate and interpretable. Towards this goal, we construct a new fine-grained dataset, called FineDiving, developed on diverse diving events with detailed annotations on action procedures. We also propose a procedure-aware approach for action quality assessment, learned by a new Temporal Segmentation Attention module. Specifically, we propose to parse pairwise query and exemplar action instances into consecutive steps with diverse semantic and temporal correspondences. The procedure-aware cross-attention is proposed to learn embeddings between query and exemplar steps to discover their semantic, spatial, and temporal correspondences, and further serve for fine-grained contrastive regression to derive a reliable scoring mechanism. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach achieves substantial improvements over state-of-the-art methods with better interpretability. The dataset and code are available at \url{https://github.com/xujinglin/FineDiving}.

Guangyi Chen, Weiran Yao, Xiangchen Song et al. · cmu, tsinghua

With the increasing attention to large vision-language models such as CLIP, there has been a significant amount of effort dedicated to building efficient prompts. Unlike conventional methods of only learning one single prompt, we propose to learn multiple comprehensive prompts to describe diverse characteristics of categories such as intrinsic attributes or extrinsic contexts. However, directly matching each prompt to the same visual feature is problematic, as it pushes the prompts to converge to one point. To solve this problem, we propose to apply optimal transport to match the vision and text modalities. Specifically, we first model images and the categories with visual and textual feature sets. Then, we apply a two-stage optimization strategy to learn the prompts. In the inner loop, we optimize the optimal transport distance to align visual features and prompts by the Sinkhorn algorithm, while in the outer loop, we learn the prompts by this distance from the supervised data. Extensive experiments are conducted on the few-shot recognition task and the improvement demonstrates the superiority of our method. The code is available at https://github.com/CHENGY12/PLOT.

Sheng Zhang, Salman Khan, Zhiqiang Shen et al.

Although existing semi-supervised learning models achieve remarkable success in learning with unannotated in-distribution data, they mostly fail to learn on unlabeled data sampled from novel semantic classes due to their closed-set assumption. In this work, we target a pragmatic but under-explored Generalized Novel Category Discovery (GNCD) setting. The GNCD setting aims to categorize unlabeled training data coming from known and novel classes by leveraging the information of partially labeled known classes. We propose a two-stage Contrastive Affinity Learning method with auxiliary visual Prompts, dubbed PromptCAL, to address this challenging problem. Our approach discovers reliable pairwise sample affinities to learn better semantic clustering of both known and novel classes for the class token and visual prompts. First, we propose a discriminative prompt regularization loss to reinforce semantic discriminativeness of prompt-adapted pre-trained vision transformer for refined affinity relationships.Besides, we propose contrastive affinity learning to calibrate semantic representations based on our iterative semi-supervised affinity graph generation method for semantically-enhanced supervision. Extensive experimental evaluation demonstrates that our PromptCAL method is more effective in discovering novel classes even with limited annotations and surpasses the current state-of-the-art on generic and fine-grained benchmarks (e.g., with nearly 11% gain on CUB-200, and 9% on ImageNet-100) on overall accuracy. Our code is available at https://github.com/sheng-eatamath/PromptCAL.

Zuyan Liu, Benlin Liu, Jiahui Wang et al. · tsinghua

In the field of instruction-following large vision-language models (LVLMs), the efficient deployment of these models faces challenges, notably due to the high memory demands of their key-value (KV) caches. Conventional cache management strategies for LLMs focus on cache eviction, which often fails to address the specific needs of multimodal instruction-following models. Recognizing this gap, in this paper, we introduce Elastic Cache, a novel approach that benefits from applying distinct acceleration methods for instruction encoding and output generation stages. We investigate the metrics of importance in different stages and propose an importance-driven cache merging strategy to prune redundancy caches. Instead of discarding less important caches, our strategy identifies important key/value vectors as anchor points. Surrounding less important caches are then merged with these anchors, enhancing the preservation of contextual information in the KV caches while yielding an arbitrary acceleration ratio. For instruction encoding, we utilize the frequency to evaluate the importance of caches. Regarding output generation, we prioritize tokens based on their distance with an offset, by which both the initial and most recent tokens are retained. Results on a range of LVLMs demonstrate that Elastic Cache not only boosts efficiency but also notably outperforms existing pruning methods in language generation across various tasks. Code is available at https://github.com/liuzuyan/ElasticCache

Sheng Zhang, Muzammal Naseer, Guangyi Chen et al.

Large-scale pre-trained Vision Language Models (VLMs) have proven effective for zero-shot classification. Despite the success, most traditional VLMs-based methods are restricted by the assumption of partial source supervision or ideal vocabularies, which rarely satisfy the open-world scenario. In this paper, we aim at a more challenging setting, Realistic Zero-Shot Classification, which assumes no annotation but instead a broad vocabulary. To address this challenge, we propose the Self Structural Semantic Alignment (S^3A) framework, which extracts the structural semantic information from unlabeled data while simultaneously self-learning. Our S^3A framework adopts a unique Cluster-Vote-Prompt-Realign (CVPR) algorithm, which iteratively groups unlabeled data to derive structural semantics for pseudo-supervision. Our CVPR process includes iterative clustering on images, voting within each cluster to identify initial class candidates from the vocabulary, generating discriminative prompts with large language models to discern confusing candidates, and realigning images and the vocabulary as structural semantic alignment. Finally, we propose to self-learn the CLIP image encoder with both individual and structural semantic alignment through a teacher-student learning strategy. Our comprehensive experiments across various generic and fine-grained benchmarks demonstrate that the S^3A method offers substantial improvements over existing VLMs-based approaches, achieving a more than 15% accuracy improvement over CLIP on average. Our codes, models, and prompts are publicly released at https://github.com/sheng-eatamath/S3A.

Xiangchen Song, Weiran Yao, Yewen Fan et al. · salesforce, stanford

In unsupervised causal representation learning for sequential data with time-delayed latent causal influences, strong identifiability results for the disentanglement of causally-related latent variables have been established in stationary settings by leveraging temporal structure. However, in nonstationary setting, existing work only partially addressed the problem by either utilizing observed auxiliary variables (e.g., class labels and/or domain indexes) as side information or assuming simplified latent causal dynamics. Both constrain the method to a limited range of scenarios. In this study, we further explored the Markov Assumption under time-delayed causally related process in nonstationary setting and showed that under mild conditions, the independent latent components can be recovered from their nonlinear mixture up to a permutation and a component-wise transformation, without the observation of auxiliary variables. We then introduce NCTRL, a principled estimation framework, to reconstruct time-delayed latent causal variables and identify their relations from measured sequential data only. Empirical evaluations demonstrated the reliable identification of time-delayed latent causal influences, with our methodology substantially outperforming existing baselines that fail to exploit the nonstationarity adequately and then, consequently, cannot distinguish distribution shifts.

Weiran Yao, Guangyi Chen, Kun Zhang

Recently in the field of unsupervised representation learning, strong identifiability results for disentanglement of causally-related latent variables have been established by exploiting certain side information, such as class labels, in addition to independence. However, most existing work is constrained by functional form assumptions such as independent sources or further with linear transitions, and distribution assumptions such as stationary, exponential family distribution. It is unknown whether the underlying latent variables and their causal relations are identifiable if they have arbitrary, nonparametric causal influences in between. In this work, we establish the identifiability theories of nonparametric latent causal processes from their nonlinear mixtures under fixed temporal causal influences and analyze how distribution changes can further benefit the disentanglement. We propose \textbf{\texttt{TDRL}}, a principled framework to recover time-delayed latent causal variables and identify their relations from measured sequential data under stationary environments and under different distribution shifts. Specifically, the framework can factorize unknown distribution shifts into transition distribution changes under fixed and time-varying latent causal relations, and under observation changes in observation. Through experiments, we show that time-delayed latent causal influences are reliably identified and that our approach considerably outperforms existing baselines that do not correctly exploit this modular representation of changes. Our code is available at: \url{https://github.com/weirayao/tdrl}.

Lingjing Kong, Martin Q. Ma, Guangyi Chen et al.

Masked autoencoder (MAE), a simple and effective self-supervised learning framework based on the reconstruction of masked image regions, has recently achieved prominent success in a variety of vision tasks. Despite the emergence of intriguing empirical observations on MAE, a theoretically principled understanding is still lacking. In this work, we formally characterize and justify existing empirical insights and provide theoretical guarantees of MAE. We formulate the underlying data-generating process as a hierarchical latent variable model and show that under reasonable assumptions, MAE provably identifies a set of latent variables in the hierarchical model, explaining why MAE can extract high-level information from pixels. Further, we show how key hyperparameters in MAE (the masking ratio and the patch size) determine which true latent variables to be recovered, therefore influencing the level of semantic information in the representation. Specifically, extremely large or small masking ratios inevitably lead to low-level representations. Our theory offers coherent explanations of existing empirical observations and provides insights for potential empirical improvements and fundamental limitations of the masking-reconstruction paradigm. We conduct extensive experiments to validate our theoretical insights.

Zijian Li, Zunhong Xu, Ruichu Cai et al.

Although graph neural networks have achieved great success in the task of molecular property prediction in recent years, their generalization ability under out-of-distribution (OOD) settings is still under-explored. Different from existing methods that learn discriminative representations for prediction, we propose a generative model with semantic-components identifiability, named SCI. We demonstrate that the latent variables in this generative model can be explicitly identified into semantic-relevant (SR) and semantic-irrelevant (SI) components, which contributes to better OOD generalization by involving minimal change properties of causal mechanisms. Specifically, we first formulate the data generation process from the atom level to the molecular level, where the latent space is split into SI substructures, SR substructures, and SR atom variables. Sequentially, to reduce misidentification, we restrict the minimal changes of the SR atom variables and add a semantic latent substructure regularization to mitigate the variance of the SR substructure under augmented domain changes. Under mild assumptions, we prove the block-wise identifiability of the SR substructure and the comment-wise identifiability of SR atom variables. Experimental studies achieve state-of-the-art performance and show general improvement on 21 datasets in 3 mainstream benchmarks. Moreover, the visualization results of the proposed SCI method provide insightful case studies and explanations for the prediction results. The code is available at: https://github.com/DMIRLAB-Group/SCI.

Zijian Li, Ruichu Cai, Guangyi Chen et al.

Multi-source domain adaptation (MSDA) methods aim to transfer knowledge from multiple labeled source domains to an unlabeled target domain. Although current methods achieve target joint distribution identifiability by enforcing minimal changes across domains, they often necessitate stringent conditions, such as an adequate number of domains, monotonic transformation of latent variables, and invariant label distributions. These requirements are challenging to satisfy in real-world applications. To mitigate the need for these strict assumptions, we propose a subspace identification theory that guarantees the disentanglement of domain-invariant and domain-specific variables under less restrictive constraints regarding domain numbers and transformation properties, thereby facilitating domain adaptation by minimizing the impact of domain shifts on invariant variables. Based on this theory, we develop a Subspace Identification Guarantee (SIG) model that leverages variational inference. Furthermore, the SIG model incorporates class-aware conditional alignment to accommodate target shifts where label distributions change with the domains. Experimental results demonstrate that our SIG model outperforms existing MSDA techniques on various benchmark datasets, highlighting its effectiveness in real-world applications.

Lingjing Kong, Shaoan Xie, Weiran Yao et al.

Unsupervised domain adaptation is critical to many real-world applications where label information is unavailable in the target domain. In general, without further assumptions, the joint distribution of the features and the label is not identifiable in the target domain. To address this issue, we rely on the property of minimal changes of causal mechanisms across domains to minimize unnecessary influences of distribution shifts. To encode this property, we first formulate the data-generating process using a latent variable model with two partitioned latent subspaces: invariant components whose distributions stay the same across domains and sparse changing components that vary across domains. We further constrain the domain shift to have a restrictive influence on the changing components. Under mild conditions, we show that the latent variables are partially identifiable, from which it follows that the joint distribution of data and labels in the target domain is also identifiable. Given the theoretical insights, we propose a practical domain adaptation framework called iMSDA. Extensive experimental results reveal that iMSDA outperforms state-of-the-art domain adaptation algorithms on benchmark datasets, demonstrating the effectiveness of our framework.

Guangyi Chen, Xiao Liu, Guangrun Wang et al.

Video-language pre-trained models have shown remarkable success in guiding video question-answering (VideoQA) tasks. However, due to the length of video sequences, training large-scale video-based models incurs considerably higher costs than training image-based ones. This motivates us to leverage the knowledge from image-based pretraining, despite the obvious gaps between image and video domains. To bridge these gaps, in this paper, we propose Tem-Adapter, which enables the learning of temporal dynamics and complex semantics by a visual Temporal Aligner and a textual Semantic Aligner. Unlike conventional pretrained knowledge adaptation methods that only concentrate on the downstream task objective, the Temporal Aligner introduces an extra language-guided autoregressive task aimed at facilitating the learning of temporal dependencies, with the objective of predicting future states based on historical clues and language guidance that describes event progression. Besides, to reduce the semantic gap and adapt the textual representation for better event description, we introduce a Semantic Aligner that first designs a template to fuse question and answer pairs as event descriptions and then learns a Transformer decoder with the whole video sequence as guidance for refinement. We evaluate Tem-Adapter and different pre-train transferring methods on two VideoQA benchmarks, and the significant performance improvement demonstrates the effectiveness of our method.

Qiaosong Chu, Shuyan Li, Guangyi Chen et al.

Source-free object detection (SFOD) aims to transfer a detector pre-trained on a label-rich source domain to an unlabeled target domain without seeing source data. While most existing SFOD methods generate pseudo labels via a source-pretrained model to guide training, these pseudo labels usually contain high noises due to heavy domain discrepancy. In order to obtain better pseudo supervisions, we divide the target domain into source-similar and source-dissimilar parts and align them in the feature space by adversarial learning. Specifically, we design a detection variance-based criterion to divide the target domain. This criterion is motivated by a finding that larger detection variances denote higher recall and larger similarity to the source domain. Then we incorporate an adversarial module into a mean teacher framework to drive the feature spaces of these two subsets indistinguishable. Extensive experiments on multiple cross-domain object detection datasets demonstrate that our proposed method consistently outperforms the compared SFOD methods.

Guangyi Chen, Zhenhao Chen, Shunxing Fan et al.

The indeterminate nature of human motion requires trajectory prediction systems to use a probabilistic model to formulate the multi-modality phenomenon and infer a finite set of future trajectories. However, the inference processes of most existing methods rely on Monte Carlo random sampling, which is insufficient to cover the realistic paths with finite samples, due to the long tail effect of the predicted distribution. To promote the sampling process of stochastic prediction, we propose a novel method, called BOsampler, to adaptively mine potential paths with Bayesian optimization in an unsupervised manner, as a sequential design strategy in which new prediction is dependent on the previously drawn samples. Specifically, we model the trajectory sampling as a Gaussian process and construct an acquisition function to measure the potential sampling value. This acquisition function applies the original distribution as prior and encourages exploring paths in the long-tail region. This sampling method can be integrated with existing stochastic predictive models without retraining. Experimental results on various baseline methods demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Xiao Liu, Guangyi Chen, Yansong Tang et al.

Composing simple elements into complex concepts is crucial yet challenging, especially for 3D action generation. Existing methods largely rely on extensive neural language annotations to discern composable latent semantics, a process that is often costly and labor-intensive. In this study, we introduce a novel framework to generate compositional actions without reliance on language auxiliaries. Our approach consists of three main components: Action Coupling, Conditional Action Generation, and Decoupling Refinement. Action Coupling utilizes an energy model to extract the attention masks of each sub-action, subsequently integrating two actions using these attentions to generate pseudo-training examples. Then, we employ a conditional generative model, CVAE, to learn a latent space, facilitating the diverse generation. Finally, we propose Decoupling Refinement, which leverages a self-supervised pre-trained model MAE to ensure semantic consistency between the sub-actions and compositional actions. This refinement process involves rendering generated 3D actions into 2D space, decoupling these images into two sub-segments, using the MAE model to restore the complete image from sub-segments, and constraining the recovered images to match images rendered from raw sub-actions. Due to the lack of existing datasets containing both sub-actions and compositional actions, we created two new datasets, named HumanAct-C and UESTC-C, and present a corresponding evaluation metric. Both qualitative and quantitative assessments are conducted to show our efficacy.

Ce Chen, Shaoli Huang, Xuelin Chen et al.

Text-to-4D generation has recently been demonstrated viable by integrating a 2D image diffusion model with a video diffusion model. However, existing models tend to produce results with inconsistent motions and geometric structures over time. To this end, we present a novel framework, coined CT4D, which directly operates on animatable meshes for generating consistent 4D content from arbitrary user-supplied prompts. The primary challenges of our mesh-based framework involve stably generating a mesh with details that align with the text prompt while directly driving it and maintaining surface continuity. Our CT4D framework incorporates a unique Generate-Refine-Animate (GRA) algorithm to enhance the creation of text-aligned meshes. To improve surface continuity, we divide a mesh into several smaller regions and implement a uniform driving function within each area. Additionally, we constrain the animating stage with a rigidity regulation to ensure cross-region continuity. Our experimental results, both qualitative and quantitative, demonstrate that our CT4D framework surpasses existing text-to-4D techniques in maintaining interframe consistency and preserving global geometry. Furthermore, we showcase that this enhanced representation inherently possesses the capability for combinational 4D generation and texture editing.

Xiangchen Song, Zijian Li, Guangyi Chen et al.

Causal Temporal Representation Learning (Ctrl) methods aim to identify the temporal causal dynamics of complex nonstationary temporal sequences. Despite the success of existing Ctrl methods, they require either directly observing the domain variables or assuming a Markov prior on them. Such requirements limit the application of these methods in real-world scenarios when we do not have such prior knowledge of the domain variables. To address this problem, this work adopts a sparse transition assumption, aligned with intuitive human understanding, and presents identifiability results from a theoretical perspective. In particular, we explore under what conditions on the significance of the variability of the transitions we can build a model to identify the distribution shifts. Based on the theoretical result, we introduce a novel framework, Causal Temporal Representation Learning with Nonstationary Sparse Transition (CtrlNS), designed to leverage the constraints on transition sparsity and conditional independence to reliably identify both distribution shifts and latent factors. Our experimental evaluations on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate significant improvements over existing baselines, highlighting the effectiveness of our approach.

Loka Li, Zhenhao Chen, Guangyi Chen et al.

The recent success of Large Language Models (LLMs) has catalyzed an increasing interest in their self-correction capabilities. This paper presents a comprehensive investigation into the intrinsic self-correction of LLMs, attempting to address the ongoing debate about its feasibility. Our research has identified an important latent factor - the "confidence" of LLMs - during the self-correction process. Overlooking this factor may cause the models to over-criticize themselves, resulting in unreliable conclusions regarding the efficacy of self-correction. We have experimentally observed that LLMs possess the capability to understand the "confidence" in their own responses. It motivates us to develop an "If-or-Else" (IoE) prompting framework, designed to guide LLMs in assessing their own "confidence", facilitating intrinsic self-corrections. We conduct extensive experiments and demonstrate that our IoE-based Prompt can achieve a consistent improvement regarding the accuracy of self-corrected responses over the initial answers. Our study not only sheds light on the underlying factors affecting self-correction in LLMs, but also introduces a practical framework that utilizes the IoE prompting principle to efficiently improve self-correction capabilities with "confidence". The code is available at https://github.com/MBZUAI-CLeaR/IoE-Prompting.git.

Yan Li, Yuewen Sun, Shaoan Xie et al.

Causal representation learning (CRL) and traditional representation learning have largely developed along different trajectories. Traditional representation learning has been driven mainly by applications and empirical objectives, whereas CRL has focused more on theoretical questions, particularly identifiability. This difference in emphasis has created a gap between the two fields in terminology, problem formulation, and evaluation, limiting communication and sometimes leading to disconnected or redundant efforts. In this paper, we argue that these two fields should be brought into dialogue rather than treated as separate paradigms. To this end, we introduce a unified formulation in which the representation learning is characterized by two components: a task component, which specifies what information the learned representation is required to preserve, and a constraint component, which specifies what structure is imposed on the latent space. Under this formulation, the benefits run in both directions. CRL provides theoretical tools for understanding when structured latent constraints are useful or necessary, while traditional representation learning offers practical insights on task design and objective choice that can improve the development of CRL methods. To illustrate this interaction, we experimentally study how different task components affect the behavior of CRL methods under different structured constraints. Results on CausalVerse show that the effectiveness of causal constraints depends strongly on the tasks with which they are paired.

Yan Li, Yunlong Deng, Yuewen Sun et al.

Despite the impressive results achieved by multimodal large language models (MLLMs), their training typically relies on jointly curated multimodal data, requiring substantial human effort to construct multi-way aligned datasets and thereby limiting scalability across domains. In this work, we explore training MLLMs by only leveraging multiple paired modalities as a surrogate for the full joint multimodal distribution. Specifically, we first provide a theoretical analysis of the conditions under which the representations are identifiable with only observing pairwise modalities. Building on this analysis, we propose a representation learning framework for aligning latent representations across modalities using only pairwise data. The framework consists of two stages: latent representation alignment and cross-modal recomposition. Specifically, in the first stage, we learn the shared latent space across modalities by both self-modal reconstruction and pair-wise contrastive learning. We also incorporate an inductive bias in the contrastive learning process by partially aligning and minimal latent specification. In stage two, we integrate the encoder of newly introduced modalities with the decoders of the pre-trained modalities to facilitate cross-modal transfer and generation. We evaluate our method by newly adding 3D point clouds and tactile modalities into pre-trained MLLMs with three modality pairs and show that, by learning an aligned latent representation space, our model achieves strong cross-modal performance.

Shiyi Zhang, Sule Bai, Guangyi Chen et al.

In this paper, we investigate a new problem called narrative action evaluation (NAE). NAE aims to generate professional commentary that evaluates the execution of an action. Unlike traditional tasks such as score-based action quality assessment and video captioning involving superficial sentences, NAE focuses on creating detailed narratives in natural language. These narratives provide intricate descriptions of actions along with objective evaluations. NAE is a more challenging task because it requires both narrative flexibility and evaluation rigor. One existing possible solution is to use multi-task learning, where narrative language and evaluative information are predicted separately. However, this approach results in reduced performance for individual tasks because of variations between tasks and differences in modality between language information and evaluation information. To address this, we propose a prompt-guided multimodal interaction framework. This framework utilizes a pair of transformers to facilitate the interaction between different modalities of information. It also uses prompts to transform the score regression task into a video-text matching task, thus enabling task interactivity. To support further research in this field, we re-annotate the MTL-AQA and FineGym datasets with high-quality and comprehensive action narration. Additionally, we establish benchmarks for NAE. Extensive experiment results prove that our method outperforms separate learning methods and naive multi-task learning methods. Data and code are released at https://github.com/shiyi-zh0408/NAE_CVPR2024.

Lingjing Kong, Shaoan Xie, Guangyi Chen et al.

Deep generative models, while revolutionizing fields like image and text generation, largely operate as opaque black boxes, hindering human understanding, control, and alignment. While methods like sparse autoencoders (SAEs) show remarkable empirical success, they often lack theoretical guarantees, risking subjective insights. Our primary objective is to establish a principled foundation for interpretable generative models. We demonstrate that the principle of causal minimality -- favoring the simplest causal explanation -- can endow the latent representations of diffusion vision and autoregressive language models with clear causal interpretation and robust, component-wise identifiable control. We introduce a novel theoretical framework for hierarchical selection models, where higher-level concepts emerge from the constrained composition of lower-level variables, better capturing the complex dependencies in data generation. Under theoretically derived minimality conditions (manifesting as sparsity or compression constraints), we show that learned representations can be equivalent to the true latent variables of the data-generating process. Empirically, applying these constraints to leading generative models allows us to extract their innate hierarchical concept graphs, offering fresh insights into their internal knowledge organization. Furthermore, these causally grounded concepts serve as levers for fine-grained model steering, paving the way for transparent, reliable systems.

Lingjing Kong, Shaoan Xie, Yang Jiao et al.

Compositional generalization -- the ability to understand and generate novel combinations of learned concepts -- enables models to extend their capabilities beyond limited experiences. While effective, the data structures and principles that enable this crucial capability remain poorly understood. We propose that compositional generalization fundamentally requires decomposing high-level concepts into basic, low-level concepts that can be recombined across similar contexts, similar to how humans draw analogies between concepts. For example, someone who has never seen a peacock eating rice can envision this scene by relating it to their previous observations of a chicken eating rice. In this work, we formalize these intuitive processes using principles of causal modularity and minimal changes. We introduce a hierarchical data-generating process that naturally encodes different levels of concepts and their interaction mechanisms. Theoretically, we demonstrate that this approach enables compositional generalization supporting complex relations between composed concepts, advancing beyond prior work that assumes simpler interactions like additive effects. Critically, we also prove that this latent hierarchical structure is provably recoverable (identifiable) from observable data like text-image pairs, a necessary step for learning such a generative process. To validate our theory, we apply insights from our theoretical framework and achieve significant improvements on benchmark datasets.

Boyang Sun, Ignavier Ng, Guangyi Chen et al.

Identifying the causal relations between interested variables plays a pivotal role in representation learning as it provides deep insights into the dataset. Identifiability, as the central theme of this approach, normally hinges on leveraging data from multiple distributions (intervention, distribution shift, time series, etc.). Despite the exciting development in this field, a practical but often overlooked problem is: what if those distribution shifts happen sequentially? In contrast, any intelligence possesses the capacity to abstract and refine learned knowledge sequentially -- lifelong learning. In this paper, with a particular focus on the nonlinear independent component analysis (ICA) framework, we move one step forward toward the question of enabling models to learn meaningful (identifiable) representations in a sequential manner, termed continual causal representation learning. We theoretically demonstrate that model identifiability progresses from a subspace level to a component-wise level as the number of distributions increases. Empirically, we show that our method achieves performance comparable to nonlinear ICA methods trained jointly on multiple offline distributions and, surprisingly, the incoming new distribution does not necessarily benefit the identification of all latent variables.

Zongfang Liu, Guangyi Chen, Boyang Sun et al.

As the quality of synthetic images improves, identifying the underlying concepts of model-generated images is becoming increasingly crucial for copyright protection and ensuring model transparency. Existing methods achieve this attribution goal by training models using annotated pairs of synthetic images and their original training sources. However, obtaining such paired supervision is challenging, as it requires either well-designed synthetic concepts or precise annotations from millions of training sources. To eliminate the need for costly paired annotations, in this paper, we explore the possibility of unsupervised synthetic image attribution. We propose a simple yet effective unsupervised method called Alignment and Disentanglement. Specifically, we begin by performing basic concept alignment using contrastive self-supervised learning. Next, we enhance the model's attribution ability by promoting representation disentanglement with the Infomax loss. This approach is motivated by an interesting observation: contrastive self-supervised models, such as MoCo and DINO, inherently exhibit the ability to perform simple cross-domain alignment. By formulating this observation as a theoretical assumption on cross-covariance, we provide a theoretical explanation of how alignment and disentanglement can approximate the concept-matching process through a decomposition of the canonical correlation analysis objective. On the real-world benchmarks, AbC, we show that our unsupervised method surprisingly outperforms the supervised methods. As a starting point, we expect our intuitive insights and experimental findings to provide a fresh perspective on this challenging task.

Loka Li, Ignavier Ng, Gongxu Luo et al.

Conventional causal discovery methods rely on centralized data, which is inconsistent with the decentralized nature of data in many real-world situations. This discrepancy has motivated the development of federated causal discovery (FCD) approaches. However, existing FCD methods may be limited by their potentially restrictive assumptions of identifiable functional causal models or homogeneous data distributions, narrowing their applicability in diverse scenarios. In this paper, we propose a novel FCD method attempting to accommodate arbitrary causal models and heterogeneous data. We first utilize a surrogate variable corresponding to the client index to account for the data heterogeneity across different clients. We then develop a federated conditional independence test (FCIT) for causal skeleton discovery and establish a federated independent change principle (FICP) to determine causal directions. These approaches involve constructing summary statistics as a proxy of the raw data to protect data privacy. Owing to the nonparametric properties, FCIT and FICP make no assumption about particular functional forms, thereby facilitating the handling of arbitrary causal models. We conduct extensive experiments on synthetic and real datasets to show the efficacy of our method. The code is available at https://github.com/lokali/FedCDH.git.

Jinyuan Hu, Jiayou Zhang, Shaobo Cui et al.

Autoregressive (AR) approaches, which represent images as sequences of discrete tokens from a finite codebook, have achieved remarkable success in image generation. However, the quantization process and the limited codebook size inevitably discard fine-grained information, placing bottlenecks on fidelity. Motivated by this limitation, recent studies have explored autoregressive modeling in continuous latent spaces, which offers higher generation quality. Yet, unlike discrete tokens constrained by a fixed codebook, continuous representations lie in a vast and unstructured space, posing significant challenges for efficient autoregressive modeling. To address these challenges, we introduce MixAR, a novel framework that leverages mixture training paradigms to inject discrete tokens as prior guidance for continuous AR modeling. MixAR is a factorized formulation that leverages discrete tokens as prior guidance for continuous autoregressive prediction. We investigate several discrete-continuous mixture strategies, including self-attention (DC-SA), cross-attention (DC-CA), and a simple approach (DC-Mix) that replaces homogeneous mask tokens with informative discrete counterparts. Moreover, to bridge the gap between ground-truth training tokens and inference tokens produced by the pre-trained AR model, we propose Training-Inference Mixture (TI-Mix) to achieve consistent training and generation distributions. In our experiments, we demonstrate a favorable balance of the DC-Mix strategy between computational efficiency and generation fidelity, and consistent improvement of TI-Mix.

Shaoan Xie, Lingjing Kong, Yujia Zheng et al. · stanford

Contrastive Language-Image Pre-training (CLIP)~\citep{radford2021learning} has emerged as a pivotal model in computer vision and multimodal learning, achieving state-of-the-art performance at aligning visual and textual representations through contrastive learning. However, CLIP struggles with potential information misalignment in many image-text datasets and suffers from entangled representation. On the one hand, short captions for a single image in datasets like MSCOCO may describe disjoint regions in the image, leaving the model uncertain about which visual features to retain or disregard. On the other hand, directly aligning long captions with images can lead to the retention of entangled details, preventing the model from learning disentangled, atomic concepts -- ultimately limiting its generalization on certain downstream tasks involving short prompts. In this paper, we establish theoretical conditions that enable flexible alignment between textual and visual representations across varying levels of granularity. Specifically, our framework ensures that a model can not only \emph{preserve} cross-modal semantic information in its entirety but also \emph{disentangle} visual representations to capture fine-grained textual concepts. Building on this foundation, we introduce \ours, a novel approach that identifies and aligns the most relevant visual and textual representations in a modular manner. Superior performance across various tasks demonstrates its capability to handle information misalignment and supports our identification theory. The code is available at https://github.com/Mid-Push/SmartCLIP.

Yunlong Deng, Guangyi Chen, Tianpei Gu et al. · stanford

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) integrate visual knowledge with the analytical capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) through supervised visual instruction tuning, using image-question-answer triplets. However, the potential of VLMs trained without supervised instruction remains largely unexplored. This study validates that VLMs possess inherent self-refinement capabilities, enabling them to generate high-quality supervised data without external inputs and thereby learn autonomously. Specifically, to stimulate the self-refinement ability of VLMs, we propose a self-refinement framework based on a Triangular Consistency principle: within the image-query-answer triangle, any masked elements should be consistently and accurately reconstructed. The framework involves three steps: (1) We enable the instruction generation ability of VLMs by adding multi-task instruction tuning like image$\rightarrow$question-answer or image-answer$\rightarrow$question. (2) We generate image-query-answer triplets from unlabeled images and use the Triangular Consistency principle for filtering. (3) The model is further updated using the filtered synthetic data. To investigate the underlying mechanisms behind this self-refinement capability, we conduct a theoretical analysis from a causal perspective. Using the widely recognized LLaVA-1.5 as our baseline, our experiments reveal that the model can autonomously achieve consistent, though deliberately modest, improvements across multiple benchmarks without any external supervision, such as human annotations or environmental feedback. We expect that the insights of this study on the self-refinement ability of VLMs can inspire future research on the learning mechanism of VLMs. Code is available at https://github.com/dengyl20/SRF-LLaVA-1.5.

Guangyi Chen, Yunlong Deng, Peiyuan Zhu et al.

Causal Representation Learning (CRL) aims to uncover the data-generating process and identify the underlying causal variables and relations, whose evaluation remains inherently challenging due to the requirement of known ground-truth causal variables and causal structure. Existing evaluations often rely on either simplistic synthetic datasets or downstream performance on real-world tasks, generally suffering a dilemma between realism and evaluative precision. In this paper, we introduce a new benchmark for CRL using high-fidelity simulated visual data that retains both realistic visual complexity and, more importantly, access to ground-truth causal generating processes. The dataset comprises around 200 thousand images and 3 million video frames across 24 sub-scenes in four domains: static image generation, dynamic physical simulations, robotic manipulations, and traffic situation analysis. These scenarios range from static to dynamic settings, simple to complex structures, and single to multi-agent interactions, offering a comprehensive testbed that hopefully bridges the gap between rigorous evaluation and real-world applicability. In addition, we provide flexible access to the underlying causal structures, allowing users to modify or configure them to align with the required assumptions in CRL, such as available domain labels, temporal dependencies, or intervention histories. Leveraging this benchmark, we evaluated representative CRL methods across diverse paradigms and offered empirical insights to assist practitioners and newcomers in choosing or extending appropriate CRL frameworks to properly address specific types of real problems that can benefit from the CRL perspective. Welcome to visit our: Project page:https://causal-verse.github.io/, Dataset:https://huggingface.co/CausalVerse.

Tianjun Yao, Jiaqi Sun, Defu Cao et al.

Recent works have introduced GNN-to-MLP knowledge distillation (KD) frameworks to combine both GNN's superior performance and MLP's fast inference speed. However, existing KD frameworks are primarily designed for node classification within single graphs, leaving their applicability to graph classification largely unexplored. Two main challenges arise when extending KD for node classification to graph classification: (1) The inherent sparsity of learning signals due to soft labels being generated at the graph level; (2) The limited expressiveness of student MLPs, especially in datasets with limited input feature spaces. To overcome these challenges, we introduce MuGSI, a novel KD framework that employs Multi-granularity Structural Information for graph classification. Specifically, we propose multi-granularity distillation loss in MuGSI to tackle the first challenge. This loss function is composed of three distinct components: graph-level distillation, subgraph-level distillation, and node-level distillation. Each component targets a specific granularity of the graph structure, ensuring a comprehensive transfer of structural knowledge from the teacher model to the student model. To tackle the second challenge, MuGSI proposes to incorporate a node feature augmentation component, thereby enhancing the expressiveness of the student MLPs and making them more capable learners. We perform extensive experiments across a variety of datasets and different teacher/student model architectures. The experiment results demonstrate the effectiveness, efficiency, and robustness of MuGSI. Codes are publicly available at: \textbf{\url{https://github.com/tianyao-aka/MuGSI}.}

Yongming Rao, Wenliang Zhao, Guangyi Chen et al.

Recent progress has shown that large-scale pre-training using contrastive image-text pairs can be a promising alternative for high-quality visual representation learning from natural language supervision. Benefiting from a broader source of supervision, this new paradigm exhibits impressive transferability to downstream classification tasks and datasets. However, the problem of transferring the knowledge learned from image-text pairs to more complex dense prediction tasks has barely been visited. In this work, we present a new framework for dense prediction by implicitly and explicitly leveraging the pre-trained knowledge from CLIP. Specifically, we convert the original image-text matching problem in CLIP to a pixel-text matching problem and use the pixel-text score maps to guide the learning of dense prediction models. By further using the contextual information from the image to prompt the language model, we are able to facilitate our model to better exploit the pre-trained knowledge. Our method is model-agnostic, which can be applied to arbitrary dense prediction systems and various pre-trained visual backbones including both CLIP models and ImageNet pre-trained models. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superior performance of our methods on semantic segmentation, object detection, and instance segmentation tasks. Code is available at https://github.com/raoyongming/DenseCLIP

Yongming Rao, Guangyi Chen, Jiwen Lu et al.

Attention mechanism has demonstrated great potential in fine-grained visual recognition tasks. In this paper, we present a counterfactual attention learning method to learn more effective attention based on causal inference. Unlike most existing methods that learn visual attention based on conventional likelihood, we propose to learn the attention with counterfactual causality, which provides a tool to measure the attention quality and a powerful supervisory signal to guide the learning process. Specifically, we analyze the effect of the learned visual attention on network prediction through counterfactual intervention and maximize the effect to encourage the network to learn more useful attention for fine-grained image recognition. Empirically, we evaluate our method on a wide range of fine-grained recognition tasks where attention plays a crucial role, including fine-grained image categorization, person re-identification, and vehicle re-identification. The consistent improvement on all benchmarks demonstrates the effectiveness of our method. Code is available at https://github.com/raoyongming/CAL

Anpeng Wu, Kun Kuang, Minqin Zhu et al.

Recent breakthroughs in artificial intelligence have driven a paradigm shift, where large language models (LLMs) with billions or trillions of parameters are trained on vast datasets, achieving unprecedented success across a series of language tasks. However, despite these successes, LLMs still rely on probabilistic modeling, which often captures spurious correlations rooted in linguistic patterns and social stereotypes, rather than the true causal relationships between entities and events. This limitation renders LLMs vulnerable to issues such as demographic biases, social stereotypes, and LLM hallucinations. These challenges highlight the urgent need to integrate causality into LLMs, moving beyond correlation-driven paradigms to build more reliable and ethically aligned AI systems. While many existing surveys and studies focus on utilizing prompt engineering to activate LLMs for causal knowledge or developing benchmarks to assess their causal reasoning abilities, most of these efforts rely on human intervention to activate pre-trained models. How to embed causality into the training process of LLMs and build more general and intelligent models remains unexplored. Recent research highlights that LLMs function as causal parrots, capable of reciting causal knowledge without truly understanding or applying it. These prompt-based methods are still limited to human interventional improvements. This survey aims to address this gap by exploring how causality can enhance LLMs at every stage of their lifecycle-from token embedding learning and foundation model training to fine-tuning, alignment, inference, and evaluation-paving the way for more interpretable, reliable, and causally-informed models. Additionally, we further outline six promising future directions to advance LLM development, enhance their causal reasoning capabilities, and address the current limitations these models face.

Ignavier Ng, Yan Li, Zijian Li et al.

A central problem in unsupervised domain adaptation is determining what to transfer from labeled source domains to an unlabeled target domain. To handle high-dimensional observations (e.g., images), a line of approaches use deep learning to learn latent representations of the observations, which facilitate knowledge transfer in the latent space. However, existing approaches often rely on restrictive assumptions to establish identifiability of the joint distribution in the target domain, such as independent latent variables or invariant label distributions, limiting their real-world applicability. In this work, we propose a general domain adaptation framework that learns compact latent representations to capture distribution shifts relative to the prediction task and address the fundamental question of what representations should be learned and transferred. Notably, we first demonstrate that learning representations based on all the predictive information, i.e., the label's Markov blanket in terms of the learned representations, is often underspecified in general settings. Instead, we show that, interestingly, general domain adaptation can be achieved by partitioning the representations of Markov blanket into those of the label's parents, children, and spouses. Moreover, its identifiability guarantee can be established. Building on these theoretical insights, we develop a practical, nonparametric approach for domain adaptation in a general setting, which can handle different types of distribution shifts.

Zijian Li, Yifan Shen, Kaitao Zheng et al.

Temporally causal representation learning aims to identify the latent causal process from time series observations, but most methods require the assumption that the latent causal processes do not have instantaneous relations. Although some recent methods achieve identifiability in the instantaneous causality case, they require either interventions on the latent variables or grouping of the observations, which are in general difficult to obtain in real-world scenarios. To fill this gap, we propose an \textbf{ID}entification framework for instantane\textbf{O}us \textbf{L}atent dynamics (\textbf{IDOL}) by imposing a sparse influence constraint that the latent causal processes have sparse time-delayed and instantaneous relations. Specifically, we establish identifiability results of the latent causal process based on sufficient variability and the sparse influence constraint by employing contextual information of time series data. Based on these theories, we incorporate a temporally variational inference architecture to estimate the latent variables and a gradient-based sparsity regularization to identify the latent causal process. Experimental results on simulation datasets illustrate that our method can identify the latent causal process. Furthermore, evaluations on multiple human motion forecasting benchmarks with instantaneous dependencies indicate the effectiveness of our method in real-world settings.

Yuewen Sun, Lingjing Kong, Guangyi Chen et al.

Prevalent in biomedical applications (e.g., human phenotype research), multimodal datasets can provide valuable insights into the underlying physiological mechanisms. However, current machine learning (ML) models designed to analyze these datasets often lack interpretability and identifiability guarantees, which are essential for biomedical research. Recent advances in causal representation learning have shown promise in identifying interpretable latent causal variables with formal theoretical guarantees. Unfortunately, most current work on multimodal distributions either relies on restrictive parametric assumptions or yields only coarse identification results, limiting their applicability to biomedical research that favors a detailed understanding of the mechanisms. In this work, we aim to develop flexible identification conditions for multimodal data and principled methods to facilitate the understanding of biomedical datasets. Theoretically, we consider a nonparametric latent distribution (c.f., parametric assumptions in previous work) that allows for causal relationships across potentially different modalities. We establish identifiability guarantees for each latent component, extending the subspace identification results from previous work. Our key theoretical contribution is the structural sparsity of causal connections between modalities, which, as we will discuss, is natural for a large collection of biomedical systems. Empirically, we present a practical framework to instantiate our theoretical insights. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through extensive experiments on both numerical and synthetic datasets. Results on a real-world human phenotype dataset are consistent with established biomedical research, validating our theoretical and methodological framework.

Zeyu Tang, Zhenhao Chen, Xiangchen Song et al. · stanford

The autoregressive decoding for text generation in large language models (LLMs), while widely used, is inherently suboptimal due to the lack of a built-in mechanism to perform refinement and/or correction of the generated content. In this paper, we consider optimality in terms of the joint probability over the generated response, when jointly considering all tokens at the same time. We theoretically characterize the potential deviation of the autoregressively generated response from its globally optimal counterpart that is of the same length. Our analysis suggests that we need to be cautious when noticeable uncertainty arises during text generation, which may signal the sub-optimality of the generation history. To address the pitfall of autoregressive decoding for text generation, we propose an approach that incorporates a sliding reflection window and a pausing criterion, such that refinement and generation can be carried out interchangeably as the decoding proceeds. Our selective refinement framework strikes a balance between efficiency and optimality, and our extensive experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

Lingjing Kong, Guangyi Chen, Petar Stojanov et al. · pku

Canonical work handling distribution shifts typically necessitates an entire target distribution that lands inside the training distribution. However, practical scenarios often involve only a handful of target samples, potentially lying outside the training support, which requires the capability of extrapolation. In this work, we aim to provide a theoretical understanding of when extrapolation is possible and offer principled methods to achieve it without requiring an on-support target distribution. To this end, we formulate the extrapolation problem with a latent-variable model that embodies the minimal change principle in causal mechanisms. Under this formulation, we cast the extrapolation problem into a latent-variable identification problem. We provide realistic conditions on shift properties and the estimation objectives that lead to identification even when only one off-support target sample is available, tackling the most challenging scenarios. Our theory reveals the intricate interplay between the underlying manifold's smoothness and the shift properties. We showcase how our theoretical results inform the design of practical adaptation algorithms. Through experiments on both synthetic and real-world data, we validate our theoretical findings and their practical implications.

Zijian Li, Shunxing Fan, Yujia Zheng et al.

Disentangled representation learning aims to uncover latent variables underlying the observed data, and generally speaking, rather strong assumptions are needed to ensure identifiability. Some approaches rely on sufficient changes on the distribution of latent variables indicated by auxiliary variables such as domain indices, but acquiring enough domains is often challenging. Alternative approaches exploit structural sparsity assumptions on the mixing procedure, but such constraints are usually (partially) violated in practice. Interestingly, we find that these two seemingly unrelated assumptions can actually complement each other to achieve identifiability. Specifically, when conditioned on auxiliary variables, the sparse mixing procedure assumption provides structural constraints on the mapping from estimated to true latent variables and hence compensates for potentially insufficient distribution changes. Building on this insight, we propose an identifiability theory with less restrictive constraints regarding distribution changes and the sparse mixing procedure, enhancing applicability to real-world scenarios. Additionally, we develop an estimation framework incorporating a domain encoding network and a sparse mixing constraint and provide two implementations based on variational autoencoders and generative adversarial networks, respectively. Experiment results on synthetic and real-world datasets support our theoretical results.

Minghao Fu, Biwei Huang, Zijian Li et al.

Understanding climate dynamics requires going beyond correlations in observational data to uncover their underlying causal process. Latent drivers, such as atmospheric processes, play a critical role in temporal dynamics, while direct causal influences also exist among geographically proximate observed variables. Traditional Causal Representation Learning (CRL) typically focuses on latent factors but overlooks such observable-to-observable causal relations, limiting its applicability to climate analysis. In this paper, we introduce a unified framework that jointly uncovers (i) causal relations among observed variables and (ii) latent driving forces together with their interactions. We establish conditions under which both the hidden dynamic processes and the causal structure among observed variables are simultaneously identifiable from time-series data. Remarkably, our guarantees hold even in the nonparametric setting, leveraging contextual information to recover latent variables and causal relations. Building on these insights, we propose CaDRe (Causal Discovery and Representation learning), a time-series generative model with structural constraints that integrates CRL and causal discovery. Experiments on synthetic datasets validate our theoretical results. On real-world climate datasets, CaDRe not only delivers competitive forecasting accuracy but also recovers visualized causal graphs aligned with domain expertise, thereby offering interpretable insights into climate systems.

Yuke Li, Guangyi Chen, Ben Abramowitz et al.

Few-shot action recognition aims at quickly adapting a pre-trained model to the novel data with a distribution shift using only a limited number of samples. Key challenges include how to identify and leverage the transferable knowledge learned by the pre-trained model. We therefore propose CDTD, or Causal Domain-Invariant Temporal Dynamics for knowledge transfer. To identify the temporally invariant and variant representations, we employ the causal representation learning methods for unsupervised pertaining, and then tune the classifier with supervisions in next stage. Specifically, we assume the domain information can be well estimated and the pre-trained image decoder and transition models can be well transferred. During adaptation, we fix the transferable temporal dynamics and update the image encoder and domain estimator. The efficacy of our approach is revealed by the superior accuracy of CDTD over leading alternatives across standard few-shot action recognition datasets.

Shaoan Xie, Lingjing Kong, Xiangchen Song et al.

Diffusion language models (dLLMs) offer a promising, non-autoregressive paradigm for text generation, yet training them for complex reasoning remains a key challenge. Current reinforcement learning approaches often rely on sparse, outcome-based rewards, which can reinforce flawed reasoning paths that lead to coincidentally correct answers. We argue that this stems from a fundamental mismatch with the natural structure of reasoning. We first propose a theoretical framework that formalizes complex problem solving as a hierarchical selection process, where an intractable global constraint is decomposed into a series of simpler, localized logical steps. This framework provides a principled foundation for algorithm design, including theoretical insights into the identifiability of this latent reasoning structure. Motivated by this theory, we identify unstructured refinement -- a failure mode where a model's iterative steps do not contribute meaningfully to the solution -- as a core deficiency in existing methods. We then introduce Step-Aware Policy Optimization (SAPO), a novel RL algorithm that aligns the dLLM's denoising process with the latent reasoning hierarchy. By using a process-based reward function that encourages incremental progress, SAPO guides the model to learn structured, coherent reasoning paths. Our empirical results show that this principled approach significantly improves performance on challenging reasoning benchmarks and enhances the interpretability of the generation process.

Zijian Li, Ruichu Cai, Zhenhui Yang et al.

As environments evolve, temporal distribution shifts can degrade time series forecasting performance. A straightforward solution is to adapt to nonstationary changes while preserving stationary dependencies. Hence, some methods disentangle stationary and nonstationary components by assuming uniform distribution shifts, but it is impractical since when the distribution changes is unknown. To address this challenge, we propose the \textbf{U}nknown \textbf{D}istribution \textbf{A}daptation (\textbf{UDA}) model for nonstationary time series forecasting, which detects when distribution shifts occur and disentangles stationary/nonstationary latent variables, thus enabling adaptation to unknown distribution without assuming a uniform distribution shift. Specifically, under a Hidden Markov assumption of latent environments, we demonstrate that the latent environments are identifiable. Sequentially, we further disentangle stationary/nonstationary latent variables by leveraging the variability of historical information. Based on these theoretical results, we propose a variational autoencoder-based model, which incorporates an autoregressive hidden Markov model to estimate latent environments. Additionally, we further devise the modular prior networks to disentangle stationary/nonstationary latent variables. These two modules realize automatic adaptation and enhance nonstationary forecasting performance. Experimental results on several datasets validate the effectiveness of our approach.

Zijian Li, Minghao Fu, Junxian Huang et al.

Modeling hierarchical latent dynamics behind time series data is critical for capturing temporal dependencies across multiple levels of abstraction in real-world tasks. However, existing temporal causal representation learning methods fail to capture such dynamics, as they fail to recover the joint distribution of hierarchical latent variables from \textit{single-timestep observed variables}. Interestingly, we find that the joint distribution of hierarchical latent variables can be uniquely determined using three conditionally independent observations. Building on this insight, we propose a Causally Hierarchical Latent Dynamic (CHiLD) identification framework. Our approach first employs temporal contextual observed variables to identify the joint distribution of multi-layer latent variables. Sequentially, we exploit the natural sparsity of the hierarchical structure among latent variables to identify latent variables within each layer. Guided by the theoretical results, we develop a time series generative model grounded in variational inference. This model incorporates a contextual encoder to reconstruct multi-layer latent variables and normalize flow-based hierarchical prior networks to impose the independent noise condition of hierarchical latent dynamics. Empirical evaluations on both synthetic and real-world datasets validate our theoretical claims and demonstrate the effectiveness of CHiLD in modeling hierarchical latent dynamics.

Zijian Li, Changze Zhou, Minghao Fu et al.

This paper is concerned with online time series forecasting, where unknown distribution shifts occur over time, i.e., latent variables influence the mapping from historical to future observations. To develop an automated way of online time series forecasting, we propose a Theoretical framework for Online Time-series forecasting (TOT in short) with theoretical guarantees. Specifically, we prove that supplying a forecaster with latent variables tightens the Bayes risk, the benefit endures under estimation uncertainty of latent variables and grows as the latent variables achieve a more precise identifiability. To better introduce latent variables into online forecasting algorithms, we further propose to identify latent variables with minimal adjacent observations. Based on these results, we devise a model-agnostic blueprint by employing a temporal decoder to match the distribution of observed variables and two independent noise estimators to model the causal inference of latent variables and mixing procedures of observed variables, respectively. Experiment results on synthetic data support our theoretical claims. Moreover, plug-in implementations built on several baselines yield general improvement across multiple benchmarks, highlighting the effectiveness in real-world applications.

Yunlong Deng, Boyang Sun, Yan Li et al. · stanford

Due to their inherent complexity, reasoning tasks have long been regarded as rigorous benchmarks for assessing the capabilities of machine learning models, especially large language models (LLMs). Although humans can solve these tasks with ease, existing models, even after extensive pre-training and post-training at scale, still fail to perform reasoning reliably. In this paper, we revisit reasoning tasks from a causal perspective, seeking to understand their behavior in latent space and to offer insights for addressing their challenges. Specifically, we cast reasoning tasks as a selection mechanism, in which high-level logical concepts function as selection operators on the given observations, such as, identifying the correct answer in a math problem or filling the appropriate entry in Sudoku. We emphasize two key properties of this formulation that shed light on the difficulty of reasoning tasks. First, the latent space exceeds the observation space in complexity, even when the correct answer is fully determined by the observed input. Second, the latent variables, corresponding to logical thought, are densely structured and exhibit strong dependencies. Building on this formulation, we introduce a framework, called SR$^2$, that incorporates the estimated latent variables as feedback into the selection mechanism, thereby facilitating the learning of dense dependencies among latent representations. The framework consists of three key modules: reflective representation learning, dependency self-refinement, and periodic intermediate alignment. Experimentally, we show that our approach yields significant gains in reasoning accuracy, for example, attaining over 10$\%$ improvement in performance with 8$\times$ fewer parameters on the Sudoku and Maze tasks over the recent advances.

Gongxu Luo, Loka Li, Guangyi Chen et al.

Interventional causal discovery seeks to identify causal relations by leveraging distributional changes introduced by interventions, even in the presence of latent confounders. Beyond the spurious dependencies induced by latent confounders, we highlight a common yet often overlooked challenge in the problem due to post-treatment selection, in which samples are selectively included in datasets after interventions. This fundamental challenge widely exists in biological studies; for example, in gene expression analysis, both observational and interventional samples are retained only if they meet quality control criteria (e.g., highly active cells). Neglecting post-treatment selection may introduce spurious dependencies and distributional changes under interventions, which can mimic causal responses, thereby distorting causal discovery results and challenging existing causal formulations. To address this, we introduce a novel causal formulation that explicitly models post-treatment selection and reveals how its differential reactions to interventions can distinguish causal relations from selection patterns, allowing us to go beyond traditional equivalence classes toward the underlying true causal structure. We then characterize its Markov properties and propose a Fine-grained Interventional equivalence class, named FI-Markov equivalence, represented by a new graphical diagram, F-PAG. Finally, we develop a provably sound and complete algorithm, F-FCI, to identify causal relations, latent confounders, and post-treatment selection up to $\mathcal{FI}$-Markov equivalence, using both observational and interventional data. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our method recovers causal relations despite the presence of both selection and latent confounders.

Loka Li, Wong Yu Kang, Minghao Fu et al.

Understanding human behavior traits is central to applications in human-computer interaction, computational social science, and personalized AI systems. Such understanding often requires integrating multiple modalities to capture nuanced patterns and relationships. However, existing resources rarely provide datasets that combine behavioral descriptors with complementary modalities such as facial attributes and biographical information. To address this gap, we present PersonaX, a curated collection of multimodal datasets designed to enable comprehensive analysis of public traits across modalities. PersonaX consists of (1) CelebPersona, featuring 9444 public figures from diverse occupations, and (2) AthlePersona, covering 4181 professional athletes across 7 major sports leagues. Each dataset includes behavioral trait assessments inferred by three high-performing large language models, alongside facial imagery and structured biographical features. We analyze PersonaX at two complementary levels. First, we abstract high-level trait scores from text descriptions and apply five statistical independence tests to examine their relationships with other modalities. Second, we introduce a novel causal representation learning (CRL) framework tailored to multimodal and multi-measurement data, providing theoretical identifiability guarantees. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. By unifying structured and unstructured analysis, PersonaX establishes a foundation for studying LLM-inferred behavioral traits in conjunction with visual and biographical attributes, advancing multimodal trait analysis and causal reasoning.