Julian Rodemann

Chongsheng Zhang, Hao Wang, Zelong Yu et al.

Imbalanced data is commonly present in real-world applications. While data synthesis can effectively mitigate the data scarcity problem of rare-classes, and LLMs have revolutionized text generation, the application of LLMs to relational/structured tabular data synthesis remains underexplored. Moreover, existing approaches lack an effective feedback mechanism that can guide LLMs towards continuously optimizing the quality of the generated data throughout the synthesis process. In this work, we propose RDDG, Relational Data generator with Dynamic Guidance, which is a unified in-context learning framework that employs progressive chain-of-thought (CoT) steps to generate tabular data for enhancing downstream imbalanced classification performance. RDDG first uses core set selection to identify representative samples from the original data, then utilizes in-context learning to discover the inherent patterns and correlations among attributes within the core set, and subsequently generates tabular data while preserving the aforementioned constraints. More importantly, it incorporates a self-reinforcing feedback mechanism that provides automatic assessments on the quality of the generated data, enabling continuous quality optimization throughout the generation process. Experimental results on multiple real and synthetic datasets demonstrate that RDDG outperforms existing approaches in both data fidelity and downstream imbalanced classification performance. We make our code available at https://github.com/cszhangLMU/RDDG.

Xabier Gonzalez-Garcia, Siu Lun Chau, Julian Rodemann et al. · oxford

Credal sets, i.e., closed convex sets of probability measures, provide a natural framework to represent aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in machine learning. Yet how to quantify these two types of uncertainty for a given credal set, particularly in multiclass classification, remains underexplored. In this paper, we propose a distance-based approach to quantify total, aleatoric, and epistemic uncertainty for credal sets. Concretely, we introduce a family of such measures within the framework of Integral Probability Metrics (IPMs). The resulting quantities admit clear semantic interpretations, satisfy natural theoretical desiderata, and remain computationally tractable for common choices of IPMs. We instantiate the framework with the total variation distance and obtain simple, efficient uncertainty measures for multiclass classification. In the binary case, this choice recovers established uncertainty measures, for which a principled multiclass generalization has so far been missing. Empirical results confirm practical usefulness, with favorable performance at low computational cost.

Christoph Jansen, Georg Schollmeyer, Hannah Blocher et al.

Spaces with locally varying scale of measurement, like multidimensional structures with differently scaled dimensions, are pretty common in statistics and machine learning. Nevertheless, it is still understood as an open question how to exploit the entire information encoded in them properly. We address this problem by considering an order based on (sets of) expectations of random variables mapping into such non-standard spaces. This order contains stochastic dominance and expectation order as extreme cases when no, or respectively perfect, cardinal structure is given. We derive a (regularized) statistical test for our proposed generalized stochastic dominance (GSD) order, operationalize it by linear optimization, and robustify it by imprecise probability models. Our findings are illustrated with data from multidimensional poverty measurement, finance, and medicine.

Julian Rodemann, Jann Goschenhofer, Emilio Dorigatti et al.

Semi-supervised learning by self-training heavily relies on pseudo-label selection (PLS). The selection often depends on the initial model fit on labeled data. Early overfitting might thus be propagated to the final model by selecting instances with overconfident but erroneous predictions, often referred to as confirmation bias. This paper introduces BPLS, a Bayesian framework for PLS that aims to mitigate this issue. At its core lies a criterion for selecting instances to label: an analytical approximation of the posterior predictive of pseudo-samples. We derive this selection criterion by proving Bayes optimality of the posterior predictive of pseudo-samples. We further overcome computational hurdles by approximating the criterion analytically. Its relation to the marginal likelihood allows us to come up with an approximation based on Laplace's method and the Gaussian integral. We empirically assess BPLS for parametric generalized linear and non-parametric generalized additive models on simulated and real-world data. When faced with high-dimensional data prone to overfitting, BPLS outperforms traditional PLS methods.

Esteban Garces Arias, Julian Rodemann, Meimingwei Li et al.

Decoding from the output distributions of large language models to produce high-quality text is a complex challenge in language modeling. Various approaches, such as beam search, sampling with temperature, $k-$sampling, nucleus $p-$sampling, typical decoding, contrastive decoding, and contrastive search, have been proposed to address this problem, aiming to improve coherence, diversity, as well as resemblance to human-generated text. In this study, we introduce adaptive contrastive search, a novel decoding strategy extending contrastive search by incorporating an adaptive degeneration penalty, guided by the estimated uncertainty of the model at each generation step. This strategy is designed to enhance both the creativity and diversity of the language modeling process while at the same time producing coherent and high-quality generated text output. Our findings indicate performance enhancement in both aspects, across different model architectures and datasets, underscoring the effectiveness of our method in text generation tasks. Our code base, datasets, and models are publicly available.

Julian Rodemann, Unai Fischer-Abaigar, James Bailie et al.

Performative predictions influence the very outcomes they aim to forecast. We study performative predictions that affect a sample (e.g., only existing users of an app) and/or the whole population (e.g., all potential app users). This raises the question of how well models generalize under performativity. For example, how well can we draw insights about new app users based on existing users when both of them react to the app's predictions? We address this question by embedding performative predictions into statistical learning theory. We prove generalization bounds under performative effects on the sample, on the population, and on both. A key intuition behind our proofs is that in the worst case, the population negates predictions, while the sample deceptively fulfills them. We cast such self-negating and self-fulfilling predictions as min-max and min-min risk functionals in Wasserstein space, respectively. Our analysis reveals a fundamental trade-off between performatively changing the world and learning from it: the more a model affects data, the less it can learn from it. Moreover, our analysis results in a surprising insight on how to improve generalization guarantees by retraining on performatively distorted samples. We illustrate our bounds in a case study on prediction-informed assignments of unemployed German residents to job trainings, drawing upon administrative labor market records from 1975 to 2017 in Germany.

Julian Rodemann, Christoph Jansen, Georg Schollmeyer et al.

Self-training is a simple yet effective method within semi-supervised learning. The idea is to iteratively enhance training data by adding pseudo-labeled data. Its generalization performance heavily depends on the selection of these pseudo-labeled data (PLS). In this paper, we aim at rendering PLS more robust towards the involved modeling assumptions. To this end, we propose to select pseudo-labeled data that maximize a multi-objective utility function. The latter is constructed to account for different sources of uncertainty, three of which we discuss in more detail: model selection, accumulation of errors and covariate shift. In the absence of second-order information on such uncertainties, we furthermore consider the generic approach of the generalized Bayesian alpha-cut updating rule for credal sets. As a practical proof of concept, we spotlight the application of three of our robust extensions on simulated and real-world data. Results suggest that in particular robustness w.r.t. model choice can lead to substantial accuracy gains.

Fabian Bongratz, Vladimir Golkov, Lukas Mautner et al.

The field of reinforcement learning offers a large variety of concepts and methods to tackle sequential decision-making problems. This variety has become so large that choosing an algorithm for a task at hand can be challenging. In this work, we streamline the process of choosing reinforcement-learning algorithms and action-distribution families. We provide a structured overview of existing methods and their properties, as well as guidelines for when to choose which methods. An interactive version of these guidelines is available online at https://rl-picker.github.io/.

Julian Rodemann

Pseudo-Labeling is a simple and effective approach to semi-supervised learning. It requires criteria that guide the selection of pseudo-labeled data. The latter have been shown to crucially affect pseudo-labeling's generalization performance. Several such criteria exist and were proven to work reasonably well in practice. However, their performance often depends on the initial model fit on labeled data. Early overfitting can be propagated to the final model by choosing instances with overconfident but wrong predictions, often called confirmation bias. In two recent works, we demonstrate that pseudo-label selection (PLS) can be naturally embedded into decision theory. This paves the way for BPLS, a Bayesian framework for PLS that mitigates the issue of confirmation bias. At its heart is a novel selection criterion: an analytical approximation of the posterior predictive of pseudo-samples and labeled data. We derive this selection criterion by proving Bayes-optimality of this "pseudo posterior predictive". We empirically assess BPLS for generalized linear, non-parametric generalized additive models and Bayesian neural networks on simulated and real-world data. When faced with data prone to overfitting and thus a high chance of confirmation bias, BPLS outperforms traditional PLS methods. The decision-theoretic embedding further allows us to render PLS more robust towards the involved modeling assumptions. To achieve this goal, we introduce a multi-objective utility function. We demonstrate that the latter can be constructed to account for different sources of uncertainty and explore three examples: model selection, accumulation of errors and covariate shift.

Esteban Garces Arias, Hannah Blocher, Julian Rodemann et al.

Open-ended text generation has become a prominent task in natural language processing due to the rise of powerful (large) language models. However, evaluating the quality of these models and the employed decoding strategies remains challenging due to trade-offs among widely used metrics such as coherence, diversity, and perplexity. This paper addresses the specific problem of multicriteria evaluation for open-ended text generation, proposing novel methods for both relative and absolute rankings of decoding methods. Specifically, we employ benchmarking approaches based on partial orderings and present a new summary metric to balance existing automatic indicators, providing a more holistic evaluation of text generation quality. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed approaches offer a robust way to compare decoding strategies and serve as valuable tools to guide model selection for open-ended text generation tasks. We suggest future directions for improving evaluation methodologies in text generation and make our code, datasets, and models publicly available.

Julian Rodemann, Christoph Jansen, Georg Schollmeyer

We demonstrate that a wide array of machine learning algorithms are specific instances of one single paradigm: reciprocal learning. These instances range from active learning over multi-armed bandits to self-training. We show that all these algorithms do not only learn parameters from data but also vice versa: They iteratively alter training data in a way that depends on the current model fit. We introduce reciprocal learning as a generalization of these algorithms using the language of decision theory. This allows us to study under what conditions they converge. The key is to guarantee that reciprocal learning contracts such that the Banach fixed-point theorem applies. In this way, we find that reciprocal learning algorithms converge at linear rates to an approximately optimal model under relatively mild assumptions on the loss function, if their predictions are probabilistic and the sample adaption is both non-greedy and either randomized or regularized. We interpret these findings and provide corollaries that relate them to specific active learning, self-training, and bandit algorithms.

Yuanhao Ding, Esteban Garces Arias, Meimingwei Li et al.

Open-ended text generation faces a critical challenge: balancing coherence with diversity in LLM outputs. While contrastive search-based decoding strategies have emerged to address this trade-off, their practical utility is often limited by hyperparameter dependence and high computational costs. We introduce GUARD, a self-adaptive decoding method that effectively balances these competing objectives through a novel "Glocal" uncertainty-driven framework. GUARD combines global entropy estimates with local entropy deviations to integrate both long-term and short-term uncertainty signals. We demonstrate that our proposed global entropy formulation effectively mitigates abrupt variations in uncertainty, such as sudden overconfidence or high entropy spikes, and provides theoretical guarantees of unbiasedness and consistency. To reduce computational overhead, we incorporate a simple yet effective token-count-based penalty into GUARD. Experimental results demonstrate that GUARD achieves a good balance between text diversity and coherence, while exhibiting substantial improvements in generation speed. In a more nuanced comparison study across different dimensions of text quality, both human and LLM evaluators validated its remarkable performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/YecanLee/GUARD.

Julian Rodemann, Alexander Marquard, Thomas Augustin et al.

Approximate Bayesian inference typically revolves around computing the posterior parameter distribution. In practice, however, the main object of interest is often a model's predictions rather than its parameters. In this work, we propose to bypass the parameter posterior and focus directly on approximating the posterior predictive distribution. We achieve this by drawing inspiration from self-training within self-supervised and semi-supervised learning. Essentially, we quantify a Bayesian model's predictive uncertainty by refitting on self-predicted data. The idea is strikingly simple: If a model assigns high likelihood to self-predicted data, these predictions are of low uncertainty, and vice versa. This yields a deterministic, sampling-free approximation of the posterior predictive. The modular structure of our Self-Supervised Laplace Approximation (SSLA) further allows us to plug in different prior specifications, enabling classical Bayesian sensitivity (w.r.t. prior choice) analysis. In order to bypass expensive refitting, we further introduce an approximate version of SSLA, called ASSLA. We study (A)SSLA both theoretically and empirically in regression models ranging from Bayesian linear models to Bayesian neural networks. Across a wide array of regression tasks with simulated and real-world datasets, our methods outperform classical Laplace approximations in predictive calibration while remaining computationally efficient.

Julian Rodemann, Federico Croppi, Philipp Arens et al.

Bayesian optimization (BO) with Gaussian processes (GP) has become an indispensable algorithm for black box optimization problems. Not without a dash of irony, BO is often considered a black box itself, lacking ways to provide reasons as to why certain parameters are proposed to be evaluated. This is particularly relevant in human-in-the-loop applications of BO, such as in robotics. We address this issue by proposing ShapleyBO, a framework for interpreting BO's proposals by game-theoretic Shapley values.They quantify each parameter's contribution to BO's acquisition function. Exploiting the linearity of Shapley values, we are further able to identify how strongly each parameter drives BO's exploration and exploitation for additive acquisition functions like the confidence bound. We also show that ShapleyBO can disentangle the contributions to exploration into those that explore aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. Moreover, our method gives rise to a ShapleyBO-assisted human machine interface (HMI), allowing users to interfere with BO in case proposals do not align with human reasoning. We demonstrate this HMI's benefits for the use case of personalizing wearable robotic devices (assistive back exosuits) by human-in-the-loop BO. Results suggest human-BO teams with access to ShapleyBO can achieve lower regret than teams without.

Stefan Dietrich, Julian Rodemann, Christoph Jansen

We provide a theoretical and computational investigation of the Gamma-Maximin method with soft revision, which was recently proposed as a robust criterion for pseudo-label selection (PLS) in semi-supervised learning. Opposed to traditional methods for PLS we use credal sets of priors ("generalized Bayes") to represent the epistemic modeling uncertainty. These latter are then updated by the Gamma-Maximin method with soft revision. We eventually select pseudo-labeled data that are most likely in light of the least favorable distribution from the so updated credal set. We formalize the task of finding optimal pseudo-labeled data w.r.t. the Gamma-Maximin method with soft revision as an optimization problem. A concrete implementation for the class of logistic models then allows us to compare the predictive power of the method with competing approaches. It is observed that the Gamma-Maximin method with soft revision can achieve very promising results, especially when the proportion of labeled data is low.

Julian Rodemann, Hannah Blocher

We introduce a framework for benchmarking optimizers according to multiple criteria over various test functions. Based on a recently introduced union-free generic depth function for partial orders/rankings, it fully exploits the ordinal information and allows for incomparability. Our method describes the distribution of all partial orders/rankings, avoiding the notorious shortcomings of aggregation. This permits to identify test functions that produce central or outlying rankings of optimizers and to assess the quality of benchmarking suites.

Julian Rodemann, Esteban Garces Arias, Christoph Luther et al.

Empirical human-AI alignment aims to make AI systems act in line with observed human behavior. While noble in its goals, we argue that empirical alignment can inadvertently introduce statistical biases that warrant caution. This position paper thus advocates against naive empirical alignment, offering prescriptive alignment and a posteriori empirical alignment as alternatives. We substantiate our principled argument by tangible examples like human-centric decoding of language models.

Esteban Garces Arias, Hannah Blocher, Julian Rodemann et al.

Assessing the quality of LLM-generated text remains a fundamental challenge in natural language processing. Current evaluation approaches often rely on isolated metrics or simplistic aggregations that fail to capture the nuanced trade-offs between coherence, diversity, fluency, and other relevant indicators of text quality. In this work, we adapt a recently proposed framework for statistical inference based on Generalized Stochastic Dominance (GSD) that addresses three critical limitations in existing benchmarking methodologies: the inadequacy of single-metric evaluation, the incompatibility between cardinal automatic metrics and ordinal human judgments, and the lack of inferential statistical guarantees. The GSD-front approach enables simultaneous evaluation across multiple quality dimensions while respecting their different measurement scales, building upon partial orders of decoding strategies, thus avoiding arbitrary weighting of the involved metrics. By applying this framework to evaluate common decoding strategies against human-generated text, we demonstrate its ability to identify statistically significant performance differences while accounting for potential deviations from the i.i.d. assumption of the sampling design.

Julian Rodemann, James Bailie

Many learning paradigms self-select training data in light of previously learned parameters. Examples include active learning, semi-supervised learning, bandits, or boosting. Rodemann et al. (2024) unify them under the framework of "reciprocal learning". In this article, we address the question of how well these methods can generalize from their self-selected samples. In particular, we prove universal generalization bounds for reciprocal learning using covering numbers and Wasserstein ambiguity sets. Our results require no assumptions on the distribution of self-selected data, only verifiable conditions on the algorithms. We prove results for both convergent and finite iteration solutions. The latter are anytime valid, thereby giving rise to stopping rules for a practitioner seeking to guarantee the out-of-sample performance of their reciprocal learning algorithm. Finally, we illustrate our bounds and stopping rules for reciprocal learning's special case of semi-supervised learning.

Anurag Singh, Julian Rodemann, Rajeev Verma et al.

While high-stakes ML applications demand strict regulations, strategic ML providers often evade them to lower development costs. To address this challenge, we cast AI regulation as a mechanism design problem under uncertainty and introduce regulation mechanisms: a framework that maps empirical evidence from models to a license for some market share. The providers can select from a set of licenses, effectively forcing them to bet on their model's ability to fulfil regulation. We aim at regulation mechanisms that achieve perfect market outcome, i.e. (a) drive non-compliant providers to self-exclude, and (b) ensure participation from compliant providers. We prove that a mechanism has perfect market outcome if and only if the set of non-compliant distributions forms a credal set, i.e., a closed, convex set of probability measures. This result connects mechanism design and imprecise probability by establishing a duality between regulation mechanisms and the set of non-compliant distributions. We also demonstrate these mechanisms in practice via experiments on regulating use of spurious features for prediction and fairness. Our framework provides new insights at the intersection of mechanism design and imprecise probability, offering a foundation for development of enforceable AI regulations.

Esteban Garces Arias, Julian Rodemann, Christian Heumann

Understanding uncertainty in large language models remains a fundamental challenge, particularly in creative tasks where multiple valid outputs exist. We present a geometric framework using credal sets - convex hulls of probability distributions - to quantify and decompose uncertainty in neural text generation, calibrated against human creative variation. Analyzing 500 creative writing prompts from the WritingPrompts dataset with 10 unique human continuations each, we evaluate four language models across five decoding strategies, generating 100,000 stories. Our credal set analysis reveals substantial gaps in capturing human creative variation, with the best model-human calibration reaching only 0.434 (Gemma-2B with temperature 0.7). We decompose total uncertainty into epistemic and aleatoric components, finding that the choice of decoding strategy contributes 39.4% to 72.0% of total epistemic uncertainty. Model scale shows weak correlation with calibration quality and no significant difference exists between base and instruction-tuned models in calibration quality. Our geometric framework provides actionable insights for improving generation systems for human-AI creative alignment. We release our complete experimental framework.

Julian Rodemann

A wide range of machine learning algorithms iteratively add data to the training sample. Examples include semi-supervised learning, active learning, multi-armed bandits, and Bayesian optimization. We embed this kind of data addition into decision theory by framing data selection as a decision problem. This paves the way for finding Bayes-optimal selections of data. For the illustrative case of self-training in semi-supervised learning, we derive the respective Bayes criterion. We further show that deploying this criterion mitigates the issue of confirmation bias by empirically assessing our method for generalized linear models, semi-parametric generalized additive models, and Bayesian neural networks on simulated and real-world data.

Christoph Jansen, Georg Schollmeyer, Julian Rodemann et al.

Given the vast number of classifiers that have been (and continue to be) proposed, reliable methods for comparing them are becoming increasingly important. The desire for reliability is broken down into three main aspects: (1) Comparisons should allow for different quality metrics simultaneously. (2) Comparisons should take into account the statistical uncertainty induced by the choice of benchmark suite. (3) The robustness of the comparisons under small deviations in the underlying assumptions should be verifiable. To address (1), we propose to compare classifiers using a generalized stochastic dominance ordering (GSD) and present the GSD-front as an information-efficient alternative to the classical Pareto-front. For (2), we propose a consistent statistical estimator for the GSD-front and construct a statistical test for whether a (potentially new) classifier lies in the GSD-front of a set of state-of-the-art classifiers. For (3), we relax our proposed test using techniques from robust statistics and imprecise probabilities. We illustrate our concepts on the benchmark suite PMLB and on the platform OpenML.

Julian Rodemann, Thomas Augustin

Bayesian optimization (BO) with Gaussian processes (GP) as surrogate models is widely used to optimize analytically unknown and expensive-to-evaluate functions. In this paper, we propose Prior-mean-RObust Bayesian Optimization (PROBO) that outperforms classical BO on specific problems. First, we study the effect of the Gaussian processes' prior specifications on classical BO's convergence. We find the prior's mean parameters to have the highest influence on convergence among all prior components. In response to this result, we introduce PROBO as a generalization of BO that aims at rendering the method more robust towards prior mean parameter misspecification. This is achieved by explicitly accounting for GP imprecision via a prior near-ignorance model. At the heart of this is a novel acquisition function, the generalized lower confidence bound (GLCB). We test our approach against classical BO on a real-world problem from material science and observe PROBO to converge faster. Further experiments on multimodal and wiggly target functions confirm the superiority of our method.