J Yeom

Heejeong Nam, Jihyun Kim, Jimin Yeom

Forecasting irregular time series presents significant challenges due to two key issues: the vulnerability of models to mean regression, driven by the noisy and complex nature of the data, and the limitations of traditional error-based evaluation metrics, which fail to capture meaningful patterns and penalize unrealistic forecasts. These problems result in forecasts that often misalign with human intuition. To tackle these challenges, we propose an adversarial learning framework with a deep analysis of adversarial components. Specifically, we emphasize the importance of balancing the modeling of global distribution (overall patterns) and transition dynamics (localized temporal changes) to better capture the nuances of irregular time series. Overall, this research provides practical insights for improving models and evaluation metrics, and pioneers the application of adversarial learning in the domian of irregular time-series forecasting.

J. Luc Peterson, Ben Bay, Joe Koning et al.

With the growing complexity of computational and experimental facilities, many scientific researchers are turning to machine learning (ML) techniques to analyze large scale ensemble data. With complexities such as multi-component workflows, heterogeneous machine architectures, parallel file systems, and batch scheduling, care must be taken to facilitate this analysis in a high performance computing (HPC) environment. In this paper, we present Merlin, a workflow framework to enable large ML-friendly ensembles of scientific HPC simulations. By augmenting traditional HPC with distributed compute technologies, Merlin aims to lower the barrier for scientific subject matter experts to incorporate ML into their analysis. In addition to its design, we describe some example applications that Merlin has enabled on leadership-class HPC resources, such as the ML-augmented optimization of nuclear fusion experiments and the calibration of infectious disease models to study the progression of and possible mitigation strategies for COVID-19.