Bart De Moor

Arun Pandey, Hannes De Meulemeester, Bart De Moor et al.

In this paper, we propose a kernel principal component analysis model for multi-variate time series forecasting, where the training and prediction schemes are derived from the multi-view formulation of Restricted Kernel Machines. The training problem is simply an eigenvalue decomposition of the summation of two kernel matrices corresponding to the views of the input and output data. When a linear kernel is used for the output view, it is shown that the forecasting equation takes the form of kernel ridge regression. When that kernel is non-linear, a pre-image problem has to be solved to forecast a point in the input space. We evaluate the model on several standard time series datasets, perform ablation studies, benchmark with closely related models and discuss its results.

Lyse Naomi Wamba Momo, Nyalleng Moorosi, Elaine O. Nsoesie et al.

Inpatient length of stay (LoS) is an important managerial metric which if known in advance can be used to efficiently plan admissions, allocate resources and improve care. Using historical patient data and machine learning techniques, LoS prediction models can be developed. Ethically, these models can not be used for patient discharge in lieu of unit heads but are of utmost necessity for hospital management systems in charge of effective hospital planning. Therefore, the design of the prediction system should be adapted to work in a true hospital setting. In this study, we predict early hospital LoS at the granular level of admission units by applying domain adaptation to leverage information learned from a potential source domain. Time-varying data from 110,079 and 60,492 patient stays to 8 and 9 intensive care units were respectively extracted from eICU-CRD and MIMIC-IV. These were fed into a Long-Short Term Memory and a Fully connected network to train a source domain model, the weights of which were transferred either partially or fully to initiate training in target domains. Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) algorithms were used to study the effect of weight transfer on model explanability. Compared to the benchmark, the proposed weight transfer model showed statistically significant gains in prediction accuracy (between 1% and 5%) as well as computation time (up to 2hrs) for some target domains. The proposed method thus provides an adapted clinical decision support system for hospital management that can ease processes of data access via ethical committee, computation infrastructures and time.

Vincent Scheltjens, Lyse Naomi Wamba Momo, Wouter Verbeke et al.

Machine and deep learning methods for medical and healthcare applications have shown significant progress and performance improvement in recent years. These methods require vast amounts of training data which are available in the medical sector, albeit decentralized. Medical institutions generate vast amounts of data for which sharing and centralizing remains a challenge as the result of data and privacy regulations. The federated learning technique is well-suited to tackle these challenges. However, federated learning comes with a new set of open problems related to communication overhead, efficient parameter aggregation, client selection strategies and more. In this work, we address the step prior to the initiation of a federated network for model training, client recruitment. By intelligently recruiting clients, communication overhead and overall cost of training can be reduced without sacrificing predictive performance. Client recruitment aims at pre-excluding potential clients from partaking in the federation based on a set of criteria indicative of their eventual contributions to the federation. In this work, we propose a client recruitment approach using only the output distribution and sample size at the client site. We show how a subset of clients can be recruited without sacrificing model performance whilst, at the same time, significantly improving computation time. By applying the recruitment approach to the training of federated models for accurate patient Length of Stay prediction using data from 189 Intensive Care Units, we show how the models trained in federations made up from recruited clients significantly outperform federated models trained with the standard procedure in terms of predictive power and training time.

Oliver Lauwers, Oscar Mauricio Agudelo, Bart De Moor

This paper extends the concept of scalar cepstrum coefficients from single-input single-output linear time invariant dynamical systems to multiple-input multiple-output models, making use of the Smith-McMillan form of the transfer function. These coefficients are interpreted in terms of poles and transmission zeros of the underlying dynamical system. We present a method to compute the MIMO cepstrum based on input/output signal data for systems with square transfer function matrices (i.e. systems with as many inputs as outputs). This allows us to do a model-free analysis. Two examples to illustrate these results are included: a simple MIMO system with 3 inputs and 3 outputs, of which the poles and zeros are known exactly, that allows us to directly verify the equivalences derived in the paper, and a case study on realistic data. This case study analyses data coming from a (model of) a non-isothermal continuous stirred tank reactor, which experiences linear fouling. We analyse normal and faulty operating behaviour, both with and without a controller present. We show that the cepstrum detects faulty behaviour, even when hidden by controller compensation. The code for the numerical analysis is available online.

Sonny Achten, Arun Pandey, Hannes De Meulemeester et al.

We propose a unifying setting that combines existing restricted kernel machine methods into a single primal-dual multi-view framework for kernel principal component analysis in both supervised and unsupervised settings. We derive the primal and dual representations of the framework and relate different training and inference algorithms from a theoretical perspective. We show how to achieve full equivalence in primal and dual formulations by rescaling primal variables. Finally, we experimentally validate the equivalence and provide insight into the relationships between different methods on a number of time series data sets by recursively forecasting unseen test data and visualizing the learned features.

Joachim Schreurs, Hannes De Meulemeester, Michaël Fanuel et al.

Commonly, machine learning models minimize an empirical expectation. As a result, the trained models typically perform well for the majority of the data but the performance may deteriorate in less dense regions of the dataset. This issue also arises in generative modeling. A generative model may overlook underrepresented modes that are less frequent in the empirical data distribution. This problem is known as complete mode coverage. We propose a sampling procedure based on ridge leverage scores which significantly improves mode coverage when compared to standard methods and can easily be combined with any GAN. Ridge leverage scores are computed by using an explicit feature map, associated with the next-to-last layer of a GAN discriminator or of a pre-trained network, or by using an implicit feature map corresponding to a Gaussian kernel. Multiple evaluations against recent approaches of complete mode coverage show a clear improvement when using the proposed sampling strategy.

Hannes De Meulemeester, Joachim Schreurs, Michaël Fanuel et al.

Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) are performant generative methods yielding high-quality samples. However, under certain circumstances, the training of GANs can lead to mode collapse or mode dropping, i.e. the generative models not being able to sample from the entire probability distribution. To address this problem, we use the last layer of the discriminator as a feature map to study the distribution of the real and the fake data. During training, we propose to match the real batch diversity to the fake batch diversity by using the Bures distance between covariance matrices in feature space. The computation of the Bures distance can be conveniently done in either feature space or kernel space in terms of the covariance and kernel matrix respectively. We observe that diversity matching reduces mode collapse substantially and has a positive effect on the sample quality. On the practical side, a very simple training procedure, that does not require additional hyperparameter tuning, is proposed and assessed on several datasets.

Oliver Lauwers, Bart De Moor

Quantifying similarity between data objects is an important part of modern data science. Deciding what similarity measure to use is very application dependent. In this paper, we combine insights from systems theory and machine learning, and investigate the weighted cepstral distance, which was previously defined for signals coming from ARMA models. We provide an extension of this distance to invertible deterministic linear time invariant single input single output models, and assess its applicability. We show that it can always be interpreted in terms of the poles and zeros of the underlying model, and that, in the case of stable, minimum-phase, or unstable, maximum-phase models, a geometrical interpretation in terms of subspace angles can be given. We then devise a method to assess stability and phase-type of the generating models, using only input/output signal information. In this way, we prove a connection between the extended weighted cepstral distance and a weighted cepstral model norm. In this way, we provide a purely data-driven way to assess different underlying dynamics of input/output signal pairs, without the need for any system identification step. This can be useful in machine learning tasks such as time series clustering. An iPython tutorial is published complementary to this paper, containing implementations of the various methods and algorithms presented here, as well as some numerical illustrations of the equivalences proven here.

Marc Claesen, Jesse Davis, Frank De Smet et al.

Assessing the performance of a learned model is a crucial part of machine learning. However, in some domains only positive and unlabeled examples are available, which prohibits the use of most standard evaluation metrics. We propose an approach to estimate any metric based on contingency tables, including ROC and PR curves, using only positive and unlabeled data. Estimating these performance metrics is essentially reduced to estimating the fraction of (latent) positives in the unlabeled set, assuming known positives are a random sample of all positives. We provide theoretical bounds on the quality of our estimates, illustrate the importance of estimating the fraction of positives in the unlabeled set and demonstrate empirically that we are able to reliably estimate ROC and PR curves on real data.

Marc Claesen, Bart De Moor

We introduce the hyperparameter search problem in the field of machine learning and discuss its main challenges from an optimization perspective. Machine learning methods attempt to build models that capture some element of interest based on given data. Most common learning algorithms feature a set of hyperparameters that must be determined before training commences. The choice of hyperparameters can significantly affect the resulting model's performance, but determining good values can be complex; hence a disciplined, theoretically sound search strategy is essential.

Marc Claesen, Frank De Smet, Johan Suykens et al.

EnsembleSVM is a free software package containing efficient routines to perform ensemble learning with support vector machine (SVM) base models. It currently offers ensemble methods based on binary SVM models. Our implementation avoids duplicate storage and evaluation of support vectors which are shared between constituent models. Experimental results show that using ensemble approaches can drastically reduce training complexity while maintaining high predictive accuracy. The EnsembleSVM software package is freely available online at http://esat.kuleuven.be/stadius/ensemblesvm.

Marc Claesen, Frank De Smet, Johan A. K. Suykens et al.

We present an approximation scheme for support vector machine models that use an RBF kernel. A second-order Maclaurin series approximation is used for exponentials of inner products between support vectors and test instances. The approximation is applicable to all kernel methods featuring sums of kernel evaluations and makes no assumptions regarding data normalization. The prediction speed of approximated models no longer relates to the amount of support vectors but is quadratic in terms of the number of input dimensions. If the number of input dimensions is small compared to the amount of support vectors, the approximated model is significantly faster in prediction and has a smaller memory footprint. An optimized C++ implementation was made to assess the gain in prediction speed in a set of practical tests. We additionally provide a method to verify the approximation accuracy, prior to training models or during run-time, to ensure the loss in accuracy remains acceptable and within known bounds.

Marc Claesen, Frank De Smet, Johan A. K. Suykens et al.

We present a novel approach to learn binary classifiers when only positive and unlabeled instances are available (PU learning). This problem is routinely cast as a supervised task with label noise in the negative set. We use an ensemble of SVM models trained on bootstrap resamples of the training data for increased robustness against label noise. The approach can be considered in a bagging framework which provides an intuitive explanation for its mechanics in a semi-supervised setting. We compared our method to state-of-the-art approaches in simulations using multiple public benchmark data sets. The included benchmark comprises three settings with increasing label noise: (i) fully supervised, (ii) PU learning and (iii) PU learning with false positives. Our approach shows a marginal improvement over existing methods in the second setting and a significant improvement in the third.