Gregg Willcox

Louis Rosenberg, Hans Schumann, Ganesh Mani et al.

Hyperchat AI is a communication and collaboration architecture that employs intervening AI agents to enable real-time conversational deliberations among distributed human teams of unlimited size. Prior work has shown that teams as large as 250 people can hold productive real-time conversations by text, voice, or video using Hyperchat AI to discuss complex problems, brainstorm solutions, surface risks, assess alternatives, prioritize options, and converge on optimized results. Building on this prior work, this new study tasked groups of 25 to 30 basketball fans with conversationally forecasting 56 NBA games (against the spread) over a 12-week period. Results show that when discussing and debating NBA games (for five minutes each) using a Hyperchat AI enabled platform called Thinkscape, human teams were 62% accurate across the full set of NBA forecasts. This is a significant result versus the Vegas odds of 50% (p=0.059). Furthermore, had the participants wagered on the games, they would have produced an 18% ROI over the 12-week period. In addition, this study found that the conversation rate during each forecast was positively correlated with prediction accuracy. In fact, when excluding the 12 forecasts in the bottom 25th percentile by average conversation rate, the remaining 38 forecasts recorded a 68% accuracy against the published Vegas spread (p=0.017). This suggests that large-scale conversational deliberations, when facilitated by intervening AI-agents, positively impacts accuracy in groupwise forecasting.

Louis Rosenberg, Hans Schumann, Christopher Dishop et al.

Conversational Swarm Intelligence (CSI) is an AI-facilitated method for enabling real-time conversational deliberations and prioritizations among networked human groups of potentially unlimited size. Based on the biological principle of Swarm Intelligence and modelled on the decision-making dynamics of fish schools, CSI has been shown in prior studies to amplify group intelligence, increase group participation, and facilitate productive collaboration among hundreds of participants at once. It works by dividing a large population into a set of small subgroups that are woven together by real-time AI agents called Conversational Surrogates. The present study focuses on the use of a CSI platform called Thinkscape to enable real-time brainstorming and prioritization among groups of 75 networked users. The study employed a variant of a common brainstorming intervention called an Alternative Use Task (AUT) and was designed to compare through subjective feedback, the experience of participants brainstorming using a CSI structure vs brainstorming in a single large chat room. This comparison revealed that participants significantly preferred brainstorming with the CSI structure and reported that it felt (i) more collaborative, (ii) more productive, and (iii) was better at surfacing quality answers. In addition, participants using the CSI structure reported (iv) feeling more ownership and more buy-in in the final answers the group converged on and (v) reported feeling more heard as compared to brainstorming in a traditional text chat environment. Overall, the results suggest that CSI is a very promising AI-facilitated method for brainstorming and prioritization among large-scale, networked human groups.

Hans Schumann, Louis Rosenberg, Ganesh Mani et al.

Hyperchat AI is a novel agentic technology that enables thoughtful conversations among networked human groups of potentially unlimited size. It allows large teams to discuss complex issues, brainstorm ideas, surface risks, assess alternatives and efficiently converge on optimized solutions that amplify the group's Collective Intelligence (CI). A formal study was conducted to quantify the forecasting accuracy of human groups using Hyperchat AI to conversationally predict the outcome of Major League Baseball (MLB) games. During an 8-week period, networked groups of approximately 24 sports fans were tasked with collaboratively forecasting the winners of 59 baseball games through real-time conversation facilitated by AI agents. The results showed that when debating the games using Hyperchat AI technology, the groups converged on High Confidence predictions that significantly outperformed Vegas betting markets. Specifically, groups were 78% accurate in their High Confidence picks, a statistically strong result vs the Vegas odds of 57% (p=0.020). Had the groups bet against the spread (ATS) on these games, they would have achieved a 46% ROI against Vegas betting markets. In addition, High Confidence forecasts that were generated through above-average conversation rates were 88% accurate, suggesting that real-time interactive deliberation is central to amplified accuracy.

Louis Rosenberg, Gregg Willcox, Hans Schumann et al.

Swarm Intelligence (SI) is a natural phenomenon that enables biological groups to amplify their combined intellect by forming real-time systems. Artificial Swarm Intelligence (or Swarm AI) is a technology that enables networked human groups to amplify their combined intelligence by forming similar systems. In the past, swarm-based methods were constrained to narrowly defined tasks like probabilistic forecasting and multiple-choice decision making. A new technology called Conversational Swarm Intelligence (CSI) was developed in 2023 that amplifies the decision-making accuracy of networked human groups through natural conversational deliberations. The current study evaluated the ability of real-time groups using a CSI platform to take a common IQ test known as Raven's Advanced Progressive Matrices (RAPM). First, a baseline group of participants took the Raven's IQ test by traditional survey. This group averaged 45.6% correct. Then, groups of approximately 35 individuals answered IQ test questions together using a CSI platform called Thinkscape. These groups averaged 80.5% correct. This places the CSI groups in the 97th percentile of IQ test-takers and corresponds to an effective IQ increase of 28 points (p<0.001). This is an encouraging result and suggests that CSI is a powerful method for enabling conversational collective intelligence in large, networked groups. In addition, because CSI is scalable across groups of potentially any size, this technology may provide a viable pathway to building a Collective Superintelligence.