Yiding Ma

Yiding Ma, Chengyun Ruan, Kaibo Huang et al.

Large language models are moving from static text generators toward real-world decision-support systems, where forecasting is a composite capability that links information gathering, evidence integration, situational judgment, and action-oriented decision making. This capability is in broad demand across finance, policy, industry, and scientific research, yet its evaluation remains difficult: live benchmarks evaluate forecasts before answers exist, making them the cleanest way to measure forecasting ability, but they expire once events resolve; retrospective benchmarks are reproducible, but they cannot reliably distinguish genuine forecasting from facts a model may have already learned during pretraining. Prompting models to "pretend not to know" cannot replace a genuine knowledge boundary. We propose OracleProto, a reproducible framework for evaluating LLM native forecasting capability. OracleProto reconstructs resolved events into time-bounded forecasting samples by combining model-cutoff-aligned sample admission, tool-level temporal masking, content-level leakage detection, discrete answer normalization, and hierarchical scoring. Instantiated on a FutureX-Past-derived dataset with six contemporary LLMs, OracleProto distinguishes forecasting quality, sampling stability, and cost efficiency under controlled information boundaries, while reducing residual leakage to the $1\%$ level, an order of magnitude below tool-only temporal filtering. OracleProto turns LLM forecasting from one-off evaluation into an auditable, reusable, and trainable dataset-level capability, providing a unified interface for fair cross-model comparison and a controlled signal source for downstream SFT and RL. Code and data are available at https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto and https://huggingface.co/datasets/MaYiding/OracleProto.

Yu Shang, Yinzhou Tang, Yiding Ma et al.

World models have emerged as a central paradigm for embodied intelligence, enabling agents to predict action-conditioned future and reason about environmental dynamics. However, existing embodied world model benchmarks are still largely confined to vision-only prediction, offline embodied applications, and simulator-based evaluation, making them insufficient for assessing increasingly comprehensive world models. In this work, we introduce WorldArena 2.0, an expanded benchmark that systematically broadens embodied world model evaluation along three dimensions: modality, functionality, and platform. Along the modality dimension, WorldArena 2.0 extends evaluation from vision-only to visuotactile modalities, enabling assessment of multimodal perception and prediction. Along the functionality dimension, it extends beyond policy evaluation and planning to assess world models as interactive RL environments for policy optimization. Along the platform dimension, it moves beyond simulator-only evaluation to a diverse suite of simulated and real-world robotic settings across multiple embodiments. Under a standardized protocol, WorldArena 2.0 comprehensively evaluates perceptual quality, interactive utility, and cross-platform performance, providing a comprehensive testbed for tracking progress toward embodied world models. The benchmark is available at: https://world-arena.ai.

Yu Shang, Zhuohang Li, Yiding Ma et al.

While world models have emerged as a cornerstone of embodied intelligence by enabling agents to reason about environmental dynamics through action-conditioned prediction, their evaluation remains fragmented. Current evaluation of embodied world models has largely focused on perceptual fidelity (e.g., video generation quality), overlooking the functional utility of these models in downstream decision-making tasks. In this work, we introduce WorldArena, a unified benchmark designed to systematically evaluate embodied world models across both perceptual and functional dimensions. WorldArena assesses models through three dimensions: video perception quality, measured with 16 metrics across six sub-dimensions; embodied task functionality, which evaluates world models as data engines, policy evaluators, and action planners integrating with subjective human evaluation. Furthermore, we propose EWMScore, a holistic metric integrating multi-dimensional performance into a single interpretable index. Through extensive experiments on 14 representative models, we reveal a significant perception-functionality gap, showing that high visual quality does not necessarily translate into strong embodied task capability. WorldArena benchmark with the public leaderboard is released at https://worldarena.ai, providing a framework for tracking progress toward truly functional world models in embodied AI.

Yu Shang, Lei Jin, Yiding Ma et al.

Video-based world models hold significant potential for generating high-quality embodied manipulation data. However, current video generation methods struggle to achieve stable long-horizon generation: classical diffusion-based approaches often suffer from temporal inconsistency and visual drift over multiple rollouts, while autoregressive methods tend to compromise on visual detail. To solve this, we introduce LongScape, a hybrid framework that adaptively combines intra-chunk diffusion denoising with inter-chunk autoregressive causal generation. Our core innovation is an action-guided, variable-length chunking mechanism that partitions video based on the semantic context of robotic actions. This ensures each chunk represents a complete, coherent action, enabling the model to flexibly generate diverse dynamics. We further introduce a Context-aware Mixture-of-Experts (CMoE) framework that adaptively activates specialized experts for each chunk during generation, guaranteeing high visual quality and seamless chunk transitions. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that our method achieves stable and consistent long-horizon generation over extended rollouts. Our code is available at: https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/Longscape.