Lili Zheng

Luqin Gan, Lili Zheng, Genevera I. Allen

To promote new scientific discoveries from complex data sets, feature importance inference has been a long-standing statistical problem. Instead of testing for parameters that are only interpretable for specific models, there has been increasing interest in model-agnostic methods, often in the form of feature occlusion or leave-one-covariate-out (LOCO) inference. Existing approaches often make distributional assumptions, which can be difficult to verify in practice, or require model refitting and data splitting, which are computationally intensive and lead to losses in power. In this work, we develop a novel, mostly model-agnostic and distribution-free inference framework for feature importance that is computationally efficient and statistically powerful. Our approach is fast as we avoid model refitting by leveraging a form of random observation and feature subsampling called minipatch ensembles; this approach also improves statistical power by avoiding data splitting. Our framework can be applied on tabular data and with any machine learning algorithm, together with minipatch ensembles, for regression and classification tasks. Despite the dependencies induced by using minipatch ensembles, we show that our approach provides asymptotic coverage for the feature importance score of any model under mild assumptions. Finally, our same procedure can also be leveraged to provide valid confidence intervals for predictions, hence providing fast, simultaneous quantification of the uncertainty of both predictions and feature importance. We validate our intervals on a series of synthetic and real data examples, including non-linear settings, showing that our approach detects the correct important features and exhibits many computational and statistical advantages over existing methods.

Genevera I. Allen, Luqin Gan, Lili Zheng

New technologies have led to vast troves of large and complex datasets across many scientific domains and industries. People routinely use machine learning techniques to not only process, visualize, and make predictions from this big data, but also to make data-driven discoveries. These discoveries are often made using Interpretable Machine Learning, or machine learning models and techniques that yield human understandable insights. In this paper, we discuss and review the field of interpretable machine learning, focusing especially on the techniques as they are often employed to generate new knowledge or make discoveries from large data sets. We outline the types of discoveries that can be made using Interpretable Machine Learning in both supervised and unsupervised settings. Additionally, we focus on the grand challenge of how to validate these discoveries in a data-driven manner, which promotes trust in machine learning systems and reproducibility in science. We discuss validation from both a practical perspective, reviewing approaches based on data-splitting and stability, as well as from a theoretical perspective, reviewing statistical results on model selection consistency and uncertainty quantification via statistical inference. Finally, we conclude by highlighting open challenges in using interpretable machine learning techniques to make discoveries, including gaps between theory and practice for validating data-driven-discoveries.

Camille Little, Lili Zheng, Genevera Allen

Feature importance measures are widely studied and are essential for understanding model behavior, guiding feature selection, and enhancing interpretability. However, many machine learning fitted models involve complex interactions between features. Existing feature importance metrics fail to capture these pairwise or higher-order effects, while existing interaction metrics often suffer from limited applicability or excessive computation; no methods exist to conduct statistical inference for feature interactions. To bridge this gap, we first propose a new model-agnostic metric, interaction Leave-One-Covariate-Out (iLOCO), for measuring the importance of pairwise feature interactions, with extensions to higher-order interactions. Next, we leverage recent advances in LOCO inference to develop distribution-free and assumption-light confidence intervals for our iLOCO metric. To address computational challenges, we also introduce an ensemble learning method for calculating the iLOCO metric and confidence intervals that we show is both computationally and statistically efficient. We validate our iLOCO metric and our confidence intervals on both synthetic and real data sets, showing that our approach outperforms existing methods and provides the first inferential approach to detecting feature interactions.

Yuchen Zhou, Anru R. Zhang, Lili Zheng et al.

This paper studies a general framework for high-order tensor SVD. We propose a new computationally efficient algorithm, tensor-train orthogonal iteration (TTOI), that aims to estimate the low tensor-train rank structure from the noisy high-order tensor observation. The proposed TTOI consists of initialization via TT-SVD (Oseledets, 2011) and new iterative backward/forward updates. We develop the general upper bound on estimation error for TTOI with the support of several new representation lemmas on tensor matricizations. By developing a matching information-theoretic lower bound, we also prove that TTOI achieves the minimax optimality under the spiked tensor model. The merits of the proposed TTOI are illustrated through applications to estimation and dimension reduction of high-order Markov processes, numerical studies, and a real data example on New York City taxi travel records. The software of the proposed algorithm is available online$^6$.