Wenhao Yang

Patrick Kuiper, Ali Hasan, Wenhao Yang et al.

The goal of this paper is to develop distributionally robust optimization (DRO) estimators, specifically for multidimensional Extreme Value Theory (EVT) statistics. EVT supports using semi-parametric models called max-stable distributions built from spatial Poisson point processes. While powerful, these models are only asymptotically valid for large samples. However, since extreme data is by definition scarce, the potential for model misspecification error is inherent to these applications, thus DRO estimators are natural. In order to mitigate over-conservative estimates while enhancing out-of-sample performance, we study DRO estimators informed by semi-parametric max-stable constraints in the space of point processes. We study both tractable convex formulations for some problems of interest (e.g. CVaR) and more general neural network based estimators. Both approaches are validated using synthetically generated data, recovering prescribed characteristics, and verifying the efficacy of the proposed techniques. Additionally, the proposed method is applied to a real data set of financial returns for comparison to a previous analysis. We established the proposed model as a novel formulation in the multivariate EVT domain, and innovative with respect to performance when compared to relevant alternate proposals.

Jose Blanchet, Aleksandar Mijatović, Wenhao Yang

Stochastic gradient descent is a classic algorithm that has gained great popularity especially in the last decades as the most common approach for training models in machine learning. While the algorithm has been well-studied when stochastic gradients are assumed to have a finite variance, there is significantly less research addressing its theoretical properties in the case of infinite variance gradients. In this paper, we establish the asymptotic behavior of stochastic gradient descent in the context of infinite variance stochastic gradients, assuming that the stochastic gradient is regular varying with index $α\in(1,2)$. The closest result in this context was established in 1969 , in the one-dimensional case and assuming that stochastic gradients belong to a more restrictive class of distributions. We extend it to the multidimensional case, covering a broader class of infinite variance distributions. As we show, the asymptotic distribution of the stochastic gradient descent algorithm can be characterized as the stationary distribution of a suitably defined Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by an appropriate stable Lévy process. Additionally, we explore the applications of these results in linear regression and logistic regression models.