Jochen Cremer

Runyao Yu, Chenhui Gu, Jochen Stiasny et al.

Electricity price forecasting in Europe presents unique challenges due to increasing renewable generation variability, market integration, and the continent's physically interconnected power system. While recent advances in foundation models have led to substantial improvements in general time series forecasting, most existing approaches do not incorporate prior graph knowledge from the transmission topology, which can limit their ability to exploit meaningful cross-region dependencies in interconnected power systems, motivating a domain-specific foundation model. In this paper, we address this gap by first introducing a comprehensive and up-to-date dataset across 24 European countries (38 regions), spanning from 2022-01-01 to 2026-01-01. Building on this groundwork, we propose PriceFM, a probabilistic foundation model pretrained on this large dataset. Specifically, PriceFM maps each region's price and exogenous features, including load, solar, and wind generation forecasts, into a comparable latent embedding via a shared Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) projection layer, then injects prior graph knowledge by constructing a sparse graph mask derived from transmission topology. Across a large-scale European benchmark, PriceFM achieves strong performance and demonstrates superior generalization compared with multiple competitive baselines. The results highlight the value of topology-guided forecasting with increasing renewable generation and strong cross-border interconnections. The methodology is available at: https://runyao-yu.github.io/PriceFM/.

Benjamin Habib, Elvin Isufi, Ward van Breda et al.

Implementing accurate Distribution System State Estimation (DSSE) faces several challenges, among which the lack of observability and the high density of the distribution system. While data-driven alternatives based on Machine Learning models could be a choice, they suffer in DSSE because of the lack of labeled data. In fact, measurements in the distribution system are often noisy, corrupted, and unavailable. To address these issues, we propose the Deep Statistical Solver for Distribution System State Estimation (DSS$^2$), a deep learning model based on graph neural networks (GNNs) that accounts for the network structure of the distribution system and for the physical governing power flow equations. DSS$^2$ leverages hypergraphs to represent the heterogeneous components of the distribution systems and updates their latent representations via a node-centric message-passing scheme. A weakly supervised learning approach is put forth to train the DSS$^2$ in a learning-to-optimize fashion w.r.t. the Weighted Least Squares loss with noisy measurements and pseudomeasurements. By enforcing the GNN output into the power flow equations and the latter into the loss function, we force the DSS$^2$ to respect the physics of the distribution system. This strategy enables learning from noisy measurements, acting as an implicit denoiser, and alleviating the need for ideal labeled data. Extensive experiments with case studies on the IEEE 14-bus, 70-bus, and 179-bus networks showed the DSS$^2$ outperforms by a margin the conventional Weighted Least Squares algorithm in accuracy, convergence, and computational time, while being more robust to noisy, erroneous, and missing measurements. The DSS$^2$ achieves a competing, yet lower, performance compared with the supervised models that rely on the unrealistic assumption of having all the true labels.

Nikolina Čović, Jochen L. Cremer, Hrvoje Pandžić

Accelerated development of demand response service provision by the residential sector is crucial for reducing carbon-emissions in the power sector. Along with the infrastructure advancement, encouraging the end users to participate is crucial. End users highly value their privacy and control, and want to be included in the service design and decision-making process when creating the daily appliance operation schedules. Furthermore, unless they are financially or environmentally motivated, they are generally not prepared to sacrifice their comfort to help balance the power system. In this paper, we present an inverse-reinforcement-learning-based model that helps create the end users' daily appliance schedules without asking them to explicitly state their needs and wishes. By using their past consumption data, the end consumers will implicitly participate in the creation of those decisions and will thus be motivated to continue participating in the provision of demand response services.

Rushil Vohra, Ali Rajaei, Jochen L. Cremer

With the increasing penetration of renewable power sources such as wind and solar, accurate short-term, nowcasting renewable power prediction is becoming increasingly important. This paper investigates the multi-modal (MM) learning and end-to-end (E2E) learning for nowcasting renewable power as an intermediate to energy management systems. MM combines features from all-sky imagery and meteorological sensor data as two modalities to predict renewable power generation that otherwise could not be combined effectively. The combined, predicted values are then input to a differentiable optimal power flow (OPF) formulation simulating the energy management. For the first time, MM is combined with E2E training of the model that minimises the expected total system cost. The case study tests the proposed methodology on the real sky and meteorological data from the Netherlands. In our study, the proposed MM-E2E model reduced system cost by 30% compared to uni-modal baselines.

Jochen Lorenz Cremer

The electrification and ongoing energy transition lead to systematic changes in electricity loading and variability in power systems. Distribution systems were designed for regular operating patterns, assuming constant low loading. Now, operators need to assess whether their assets can withstand more, as well as time-varying loading. Operating the system at or near its ampacity potentially accelerates thermal ageing, so the question arises: 'how much can one operate at the limits while keeping maintenance and failures low?' This paper introduces a novel approach that derives a time-varying Weibull approximation of failure rates using thermal models and provides a shortcut method to quantify maintenance implications under time-varying loading for heterogeneous MV cable populations. The case studies investigate a dataset from Denmark and the Oberrhein Medium Voltage (MV) system in Germany, studying ageing assets and the interplay with loading, and replacement paradigms of two different cable insulation types. The studies demonstrate that a small fraction of 25% of old, low-quality cables leads to 82% of failures, and 1.4% of the time of highest loading can cause 46% of cable ageing. The case studies also demonstrate that maintenance needs may be between 10-300 times higher under future loading conditions associated with the energy transition, specifically in networks that have older PILC cables. This paper provides a new tool for operators to plan maintenance under more realistic, future operating conditions.

Runyao Yu, Viviana Kleine, Philipp Gromotka et al.

Batteries with silicon-graphite-based anodes, which offer higher energy density and improved charging performance, introduce pronounced voltage hysteresis, making state-of-charge (SoC) estimation particularly challenging. Existing approaches to modeling hysteresis rely on exhaustive high-fidelity tests or focus on conventional graphite-based lithium-ion batteries, without considering uncertainty quantification or computational constraints. This work introduces a data-driven approach for probabilistic hysteresis factor prediction, with a particular emphasis on applications involving silicon-graphite anode-based batteries. A data harmonization framework is proposed to standardize heterogeneous driving cycles across varying operating conditions. Statistical learning and deep learning models are applied to assess performance in predicting the hysteresis factor with uncertainties while considering computational efficiency. Extensive experiments are conducted to evaluate the generalizability of the optimal model configuration in unseen vehicle models through retraining, zero-shot prediction, fine-tuning, and joint training. By addressing key challenges in SoC estimation, this research facilitates the adoption of advanced battery technologies. A summary page is available at: https://runyao-yu.github.io/Porsche_Hysteresis_Factor_Prediction/

Jochen Stiasny, Jochen Cremer

The energy transition challenges operational tasks based on simulations and optimisation. These computations need to be fast and flexible as the grid is ever-expanding, and renewables' uncertainty requires a flexible operational environment. Learned approximations, proxies or surrogates -- we refer to them as Neural Solvers -- excel in terms of evaluation speed, but are inflexible with respect to adjusting to changing tasks. Hence, neural solvers are usually applicable to highly specific tasks, which limits their usefulness in practice; a widely reusable, foundational neural solver is required. Therefore, this work proposes the Residual Power Flow (RPF) formulation. RPF formulates residual functions based on Kirchhoff's laws to quantify the infeasibility of an operating condition. The minimisation of the residuals determines the voltage solution; an additional slack variable is needed to achieve AC-feasibility. RPF forms a natural, foundational subtask of tasks subject to power flow constraints. We propose to learn RPF with neural solvers to exploit their speed. Furthermore, RPF improves learning performance compared to common power flow formulations. To solve operational tasks, we integrate the neural solver in a Predict-then-Optimise (PO) approach to combine speed and flexibility. The case study investigates the IEEE 9-bus system and three tasks (AC Optimal Power Flow (OPF), power-flow and quasi-steady state power flow) solved by PO. The results demonstrate the accuracy and flexibility of learning with RPF.

Thomas Lautenbacher, Ali Rajaei, Davide Barbieri et al.

Transmission grid congestion increases as the electrification of various sectors requires transmitting more power. Topology control, through substation reconfiguration, can reduce congestion but its potential remains under-exploited in operations. A challenge is modeling the topology control problem to align well with the objectives and constraints of operators. Addressing this challenge, this paper investigates the application of multi-objective reinforcement learning (MORL) to integrate multiple conflicting objectives for power grid topology control. We develop a MORL approach using deep optimistic linear support (DOL) and multi-objective proximal policy optimization (MOPPO) to generate a set of Pareto-optimal policies that balance objectives such as minimizing line loading, topological deviation, and switching frequency. Initial case studies show that the MORL approach can provide valuable insights into objective trade-offs and improve Pareto front approximation compared to a random search baseline. The generated multi-objective RL policies are 30% more successful in preventing grid failure under contingencies and 20% more effective when training budget is reduced - compared to the common single objective RL policy.

Ali Rajaei, Peter Palensky, Jochen L. Cremer

Network topology optimization (NTO) via busbar splitting can mitigate transmission grid congestion and reduce redispatch costs. However, solving this mixed-integer non-linear problem for large-scale systems in near-real-time is currently intractable with existing solvers. Machine learning (ML) approaches have emerged as a promising alternative, but they have limited generalization to unseen topologies, varying operating conditions, and different systems, which limits their practical applicability. This paper formulates NTO for congestion management problem considering linearized AC PF, and proposes a graph neural network (GNN)-accelerated approach. We develop a heterogeneous edge-aware message passing NN to predict effective busbar splitting actions as candidate NTO solutions. The proposed GNN captures local flow patterns, achieves generalization to unseen topology changes, and improves transferability across systems. Case studies show up to 4 orders-of-magnitude speed-up, delivering AC-feasible solutions within one minute and a 2.3% optimality gap on the GOC 2000-bus system. These results demonstrate a significant step toward near-real-time NTO for large-scale systems with topology and cross-system generalization.

Antoine Marot, Benjamin Donnot, Karim Chaouache et al.

Artificial agents are promising for real-time power network operations, particularly, to compute remedial actions for congestion management. However, due to high reliability requirements, purely autonomous agents will not be deployed any time soon and operators will be in charge of taking action for the foreseeable future. Aiming at designing assistant for operators, we instead consider humans in the loop and propose an original formulation. We first advance an agent with the ability to send to the operator alarms ahead of time when the proposed actions are of low confidence. We further model the operator's available attention as a budget that decreases when alarms are sent. We present the design and results of our competition "Learning to run a power network with trust" in which we evaluate our formulation and benchmark the ability of submitted agents to send relevant alarms while operating the network to their best.