Matt Y. Cheung

Matt Y. Cheung, Ashok Veeraraghavan, Hanjie Chen et al.

Language model reasoning traces are rarely all-or-nothing; they frequently contain valid intermediate steps before a critical error occurs. Existing uncertainty quantification methods typically certify final answers or entire responses, failing to provide statistical guarantees for the proportion of a sequential trace that can be safely retained. To address this, we introduce CROP (Conformal Reasoning Output Prefixes), a verifier-agnostic calibration procedure for clean-prefix certification. Given any step-level risk proxy, CROP selects a calibrated threshold and returns the longest contiguous prefix whose step risk proxies remain below it, routing the uncertified suffix for downstream review or repair. Assuming exchangeability, CROP rigorously controls the marginal probability that the returned prefix contains an annotated error. Across six process-labeled reasoning datasets, we demonstrate that standard step-level metrics such as AUROC do not fully capture prefix utility, suggesting verifiers should instead be evaluated by certified prefix length. Furthermore, CROP balances over- and under-withholding, improving downstream repair accuracy by preserving valid intermediate reasoning while discarding misleading suffixes. Ultimately, this work positions prefix certification as a rigorous, practical bridge between process supervision, abstention, and repair.

Matt Y. Cheung, Ashok Veeraraghavan, Guha Balakrishnan

In clinical applications, the utility of segmentation models is often based on the accuracy of derived downstream metrics such as organ size, rather than by the pixel-level accuracy of the segmentation masks themselves. Thus, uncertainty quantification for such metrics is crucial for decision-making. Conformal prediction (CP) is a popular framework to derive such principled uncertainty guarantees, but applying CP naively to the final scalar metric is inefficient because it treats the complex, non-linear segmentation-to-metric pipeline as a black box. We introduce COMPASS, a practical framework that generates efficient, metric-based CP intervals for image segmentation models by leveraging the inductive biases of their underlying deep neural networks. COMPASS performs calibration directly in the model's representation space by perturbing intermediate features along low-dimensional subspaces maximally sensitive to the target metric. We prove that COMPASS achieves valid marginal coverage under exchangeability and nestedness assumptions. Empirically, we demonstrate that COMPASS produces significantly tighter intervals than traditional CP baselines on four medical image segmentation tasks for area estimation of skin lesions and anatomical structures. Furthermore, we show that leveraging learned internal features to estimate importance weights allows COMPASS to also recover target coverage under covariate shifts. COMPASS paves the way for practical, metric-based uncertainty quantification for medical image segmentation.

Matt Y. Cheung, Sophia Zorek, Tucker J. Netherton et al.

Diffusion models demonstrate state-of-the-art performance on image generation, and are gaining traction for sparse medical image reconstruction tasks. However, compared to classical reconstruction algorithms relying on simple analytical priors, diffusion models have the dangerous property of producing realistic looking results \emph{even when incorrect}, particularly with few observations. We investigate the utility of diffusion models as priors for image reconstruction by varying the number of observations and comparing their performance to classical priors (sparse and Tikhonov regularization) using pixel-based, structural, and downstream metrics. We make comparisons on low-dose chest wall computed tomography (CT) for fat mass quantification. First, we find that classical priors are superior to diffusion priors when the number of projections is ``sufficient''. Second, we find that diffusion priors can capture a large amount of detail with very few observations, significantly outperforming classical priors. However, they fall short of capturing all details, even with many observations. Finally, we find that the performance of diffusion priors plateau after extremely few ($\approx$10-15) projections. Ultimately, our work highlights potential issues with diffusion-based sparse reconstruction and underscores the importance of further investigation, particularly in high-stakes clinical settings.

Sina Alemohammad, Hossein Babaei, Randall Balestriero et al.

High dimensionality poses many challenges to the use of data, from visualization and interpretation, to prediction and storage for historical preservation. Techniques abound to reduce the dimensionality of fixed-length sequences, yet these methods rarely generalize to variable-length sequences. To address this gap, we extend existing methods that rely on the use of kernels to variable-length sequences via use of the Recurrent Neural Tangent Kernel (RNTK). Since a deep neural network with ReLu activation is a Max-Affine Spline Operator (MASO), we dub our approach Max-Affine Spline Kernel (MASK). We demonstrate how MASK can be used to extend principal components analysis (PCA) and t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE) and apply these new algorithms to separate synthetic time series data sampled from second-order differential equations.