Julian Lesmos-Vinasco

Yogesh Pipada Sunil Kumar, S. Ali Pourmousavi, Jon A. R. Liisberg et al.

The ongoing decarbonisation of power systems is driving an increasing reliance on distributed energy resources, which introduces complex and nonlinear interactions that are difficult to capture in conventional optimisation models. As a result, machine learning based surrogate modelling has emerged as a promising approach, but integrating machine learning models such as ReLU deep neural networks (DNNs) directly into optimisation often results in nonconvex and computationally intractable formulations. This paper proposes a linear programming (LP) reformulation for a class of convexified ReLU DNNs with non-negative weight matrices beyond the first layer, enabling a tight and tractable embedding of learned surrogate models in optimisation. We evaluate the method using a case study on learning the prosumer's responsiveness within an aggregator bidding problem in the Danish tertiary capacity market. The proposed reformulation is benchmarked against state-of-the-art alternatives, including piecewise linearisation (PWL), MIP-based embedding, and other LP relaxations. Across multiple neural network architectures and market scenarios, the convexified ReLU DNN achieves solution quality comparable to PWL and MIP-based reformulations while significantly improving computational performance and preserving model fidelity, unlike penalty-based reformulations. The results demonstrate that convexified ReLU DNNs offer a scalable and reliable methodology for integrating learned surrogate models in optimisation, with applicability to a wide range of emerging power system applications.

Yogesh Pipada Sunil Kumar, S. Ali Pourmousavi, Jon A. R. Liisberg et al.

Reliable forecasting of prosumer flexibility is critical for demand response aggregators participating in frequency controlled ancillary services market, where strict reliability requirements such as the P90 standard are enforced. Limited historical data, dependence on exogeneous factors, and heterogenous prosumer behaviour introduce significant epistemic uncertainty, making deterministic or poorly calibrated probabilistic models unsuitable for market bidding. This paper proposes the use of scalable uncertainty quantification framework that integrates Monte Carlo dropout (MCD) with conformal prediction (CP) to produce calibrated, finite sample prediction intervals for aggregated prosumer flexibility. The proposed framework is applied to a behind-the-meter aggregator participating in the Danish manual frequency restoration reserve capacity market. A large-scale synthetic dataset is generated using a modified industry-grade home energy management system, combined with publicly available load, solar, price, activation and device-level data. The resulting machine learning surrogate model captures aggregate prosumer price responsiveness and provides uncertainty-aware estimates suitable for market bidding. Multiple multivariate CP strategies are evaluated and benchmarked against conventional MCD-based methods. Results show that standalone MCD systematically overestimates available flexibility and violates P90 compliance, whereas the proposed MCD-CP framework achieves reliable coverage with controlled conservatism. When embedded in aggregator bidding model, conformalised methods substantially reduce overbidding risk and achieve upto 70% of perfect-information profit while satisfying regulatory reliability constraints, providing practical, computationally efficient, and market-compliant solution for aggregator flexibility forecasting under uncertainty.