Haitao Yuan

Jizhou Huang, Zhengjie Huang, Xiaomin Fang et al. · baidu

Estimated time of arrival (ETA) prediction, also known as travel time estimation, is a fundamental task for a wide range of intelligent transportation applications, such as navigation, route planning, and ride-hailing services. To accurately predict the travel time of a route, it is essential to take into account both contextual and predictive factors, such as spatial-temporal interaction, driving behavior, and traffic congestion propagation inference. The ETA prediction models previously deployed at Baidu Maps have addressed the factors of spatial-temporal interaction (ConSTGAT) and driving behavior (SSML). In this work, we focus on modeling traffic congestion propagation patterns to improve ETA performance. Traffic congestion propagation pattern modeling is challenging, and it requires accounting for impact regions over time and cumulative effect of delay variations over time caused by traffic events on the road network. In this paper, we present a practical industrial-grade ETA prediction framework named DuETA. Specifically, we construct a congestion-sensitive graph based on the correlations of traffic patterns, and we develop a route-aware graph transformer to directly learn the long-distance correlations of the road segments. This design enables DuETA to capture the interactions between the road segment pairs that are spatially distant but highly correlated with traffic conditions. Extensive experiments are conducted on large-scale, real-world datasets collected from Baidu Maps. Experimental results show that ETA prediction can significantly benefit from the learned traffic congestion propagation patterns. In addition, DuETA has already been deployed in production at Baidu Maps, serving billions of requests every day. This demonstrates that DuETA is an industrial-grade and robust solution for large-scale ETA prediction services.

Minxiao Chen, Haitao Yuan, Nan Jiang et al.

Traffic accidents pose a significant risk to human health and property safety. Therefore, to prevent traffic accidents, predicting their risks has garnered growing interest. We argue that a desired prediction solution should demonstrate resilience to the complexity of traffic accidents. In particular, it should adequately consider the regional background, accurately capture both spatial proximity and semantic similarity, and effectively address the sparsity of traffic accidents. However, these factors are often overlooked or difficult to incorporate. In this paper, we propose a novel multi-granularity hierarchical spatio-temporal network. Initially, we innovate by incorporating remote sensing data, facilitating the creation of hierarchical multi-granularity structure and the comprehension of regional background. We construct multiple high-level risk prediction tasks to enhance model's ability to cope with sparsity. Subsequently, to capture both spatial proximity and semantic similarity, region feature and multi-view graph undergo encoding processes to distill effective representations. Additionally, we propose message passing and adaptive temporal attention module that bridges different granularities and dynamically captures time correlations inherent in traffic accident patterns. At last, a multivariate hierarchical loss function is devised considering the complexity of the prediction purpose. Extensive experiments on two real datasets verify the superiority of our model against the state-of-the-art methods.

Minxiao Chen, Haitao Yuan, Nan Jiang et al.

Online map matching is a fundamental problem in location-based services, aiming to incrementally match trajectory data step-by-step onto a road network. However, existing methods fail to meet the needs for efficiency, robustness, and accuracy required by large-scale online applications, making this task still challenging. This paper introduces a novel framework that achieves high accuracy and efficient matching while ensuring robustness in handling diverse scenarios. To improve efficiency, we begin by modeling the online map matching problem as an Online Markov Decision Process (OMDP) based on its inherent characteristics. This approach helps efficiently merge historical and real-time data, reducing unnecessary calculations. Next, to enhance robustness, we design a reinforcement learning method, enabling robust handling of real-time data from dynamically changing environments. In particular, we propose a novel model learning process and a comprehensive reward function, allowing the model to make reasonable current matches from a future-oriented perspective, and to continuously update and optimize during the decision-making process based on feedback. Lastly, to address the heterogeneity between trajectories and roads, we design distinct graph structures, facilitating efficient representation learning through graph and recurrent neural networks. To further align trajectory and road data, we introduce contrastive learning to decrease their distance in the latent space, thereby promoting effective integration of the two. Extensive evaluations on three real-world datasets confirm that our method significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art solutions in terms of accuracy, efficiency and robustness.