Andreas Wagner

h-index14
2papers
787citations

2 Papers

5.8LGJun 23
The Gentle Collapse: Distributional Metrics for Continual Learning

Ahmed Anwar, Andreas Wagner, Federico Raue et al.

Accuracy degradation is the standard metric for Catastrophic Forgetting (CF), however, it records only whether forgetting occurred or not. It saturates at the extremes and collapses discretely at task boundaries, hiding the internal structure of what is being forgotten. We introduce six softmax-derived metrics spanning true-label rank (TLR), predictive confidence, and distributional divergence that characterize forgetting continuously, each normalized to [0, 1] with no modification to training. On CIFAR-100, these metrics carry information where accuracy does not: at 0% accuracy, the Confusion Margin spans an IQR of [0.32, 0.50] across classes that accuracy treats identically. We demonstrate that this richer signal is actionable in mitigating catastrophic forgetting. Per-sample metric scores used as loss weights reduce forgetting by 1.3 percentage points over uniform experience replay (ER) on CIFAR-100. Furthermore, the slope of a metric over a small window provides a stable sampling criterion: at a small-window size (e.g. 3 epochs), accuracy-trend degrades to 34.79% (std. = 2.32) while log-TLR achieves 41.07% (std. = 0.57). This gap is structural since reliable small-window trend estimation requires a continuous signal. On TinyImageNet, log-TLR trend sampling reduces forgetting by 7.7 percentage points over the ER baseline.

2.3APJun 14, 2019
Machine Learning on EPEX Order Books: Insights and Forecasts

Simon Schnürch, Andreas Wagner

This paper employs machine learning algorithms to forecast German electricity spot market prices. The forecasts utilize in particular bid and ask order book data from the spot market but also fundamental market data like renewable infeed and expected demand. Appropriate feature extraction for the order book data is developed. Using cross-validation to optimise hyperparameters, neural networks and random forests are proposed and compared to statistical reference models. The machine learning models outperform traditional approaches.