Explainable Boosting Machines (EBMs) provide transparent predictions through additive shape functions, enabling direct inspection of feature contributions. However, EBMs can learn non-physical relationships that reduce their reliability in natural hazard applications. This study presents a domain-informed framework to improve the physical consistency of EBMs for lateral spreading prediction. Our approach modifies learned shape functions based on domain knowledge. These modifications correct non-physical behavior while maintaining data-driven patterns. We apply the method to the 2011 Christchurch earthquake dataset and correct non-physical trends observed in the original EBM. The resulting model produces more physically consistent global and local explanations, with an acceptable tradeoff in accuracy (4--5\%).
Earthquake-induced liquefaction can cause substantial lateral spreading, posing threats to infrastructure. Machine learning (ML) can improve lateral spreading prediction models by capturing complex soil characteristics and site conditions. However, the "black box" nature of ML models can hinder their adoption in critical decision-making. This study addresses this limitation by using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to interpret an eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) model for lateral spreading prediction, trained on data from the 2011 Christchurch Earthquake. SHAP analysis reveals the factors driving the model's predictions, enhancing transparency and allowing for comparison with established engineering knowledge. The results demonstrate that the XGB model successfully identifies the importance of soil characteristics derived from Cone Penetration Test (CPT) data in predicting lateral spreading, validating its alignment with domain understanding. This work highlights the value of explainable machine learning for reliable and informed decision-making in geotechnical engineering and hazard assessment.
Farid Khosravikia, Yasaman Zeinali, Zoltan Nagy et al.
Parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas have experienced increased rates of seismicity in recent years, providing new datasets of earthquake recordings to develop ground motion prediction models for this particular region of the Central and Eastern North America (CENA). This paper outlines a framework for using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to develop attenuation models from the ground motion recordings in this region. While attenuation models exist for the CENA, concerns over the increased rate of seismicity in this region necessitate investigation of ground motions prediction models particular to these states. To do so, an ANN-based framework is proposed to predict peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) given magnitude, earthquake source-to-site distance, and shear wave velocity. In this framework, approximately 4,500 ground motions with magnitude greater than 3.0 recorded in these three states (Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas) since 2005 are considered. Results from this study suggest that existing ground motion prediction models developed for CENA do not accurately predict the ground motion intensity measures for earthquakes in this region, especially for those with low source-to-site distances or on very soft soil conditions. The proposed ANN models provide much more accurate prediction of the ground motion intensity measures at all distances and magnitudes. The proposed ANN models are also converted to relatively simple mathematical equations so that engineers can easily use them to predict the ground motion intensity measures for future events. Finally, through a sensitivity analysis, the contributions of the predictive parameters to the prediction of the considered intensity measures are investigated.