Andrew Bennett

Andrew Bennett, Nathan Kallus, Miruna Oprescu

Low-Rank Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) have recently emerged as a promising framework within the domain of reinforcement learning (RL), as they allow for provably approximately correct (PAC) learning guarantees while also incorporating ML algorithms for representation learning. However, current methods for low-rank MDPs are limited in that they only consider finite action spaces, and give vacuous bounds as $|\mathcal{A}| \to \infty$, which greatly limits their applicability. In this work, we study the problem of extending such methods to settings with continuous actions, and explore multiple concrete approaches for performing this extension. As a case study, we consider the seminal FLAMBE algorithm (Agarwal et al., 2020), which is a reward-agnostic method for PAC RL with low-rank MDPs. We show that, without any modifications to the algorithm, we obtain a similar PAC bound when actions are allowed to be continuous. Specifically, when the model for transition functions satisfies a Hölder smoothness condition w.r.t. actions, and either the policy class has a uniformly bounded minimum density or the reward function is also Hölder smooth, we obtain a polynomial PAC bound that depends on the order of smoothness.

Andrew Bennett, Nathan Kallus, Miruna Oprescu et al.

We study the evaluation of a policy under best- and worst-case perturbations to a Markov decision process (MDP), using transition observations from the original MDP, whether they are generated under the same or a different policy. This is an important problem when there is the possibility of a shift between historical and future environments, $\textit{e.g.}$ due to unmeasured confounding, distributional shift, or an adversarial environment. We propose a perturbation model that allows changes in the transition kernel densities up to a given multiplicative factor or its reciprocal, extending the classic marginal sensitivity model (MSM) for single time-step decision-making to infinite-horizon RL. We characterize the sharp bounds on policy value under this model $\unicode{x2013}$ $\textit{i.e.}$, the tightest possible bounds based on transition observations from the original MDP $\unicode{x2013}$ and we study the estimation of these bounds from such transition observations. We develop an estimator with several important guarantees: it is semiparametrically efficient, and remains so even when certain necessary nuisance functions, such as worst-case Q-functions, are estimated at slow, nonparametric rates. Our estimator is also asymptotically normal, enabling straightforward statistical inference using Wald confidence intervals. Moreover, when certain nuisances are estimated inconsistently, the estimator still provides valid, albeit possibly not sharp, bounds on the policy value. We validate these properties in numerical simulations. The combination of accounting for environment shifts from train to test (robustness), being insensitive to nuisance-function estimation (orthogonality), and addressing the challenge of learning from finite samples (inference) together leads to credible and reliable policy evaluation.

Andrew Bennett, Nathan Kallus

The conditional moment problem is a powerful formulation for describing structural causal parameters in terms of observables, a prominent example being instrumental variable regression. A standard approach reduces the problem to a finite set of marginal moment conditions and applies the optimally weighted generalized method of moments (OWGMM), but this requires we know a finite set of identifying moments, can still be inefficient even if identifying, or can be theoretically efficient but practically unwieldy if we use a growing sieve of moment conditions. Motivated by a variational minimax reformulation of OWGMM, we define a very general class of estimators for the conditional moment problem, which we term the variational method of moments (VMM) and which naturally enables controlling infinitely-many moments. We provide a detailed theoretical analysis of multiple VMM estimators, including ones based on kernel methods and neural nets, and provide conditions under which these are consistent, asymptotically normal, and semiparametrically efficient in the full conditional moment model. We additionally provide algorithms for valid statistical inference based on the same kind of variational reformulations, both for kernel- and neural-net-based varieties. Finally, we demonstrate the strong performance of our proposed estimation and inference algorithms in a detailed series of synthetic experiments.

Andrew Bennett, Nathan Kallus, Lihong Li et al.

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) in reinforcement learning is an important problem in settings where experimentation is limited, such as education and healthcare. But, in these very same settings, observed actions are often confounded by unobserved variables making OPE even more difficult. We study an OPE problem in an infinite-horizon, ergodic Markov decision process with unobserved confounders, where states and actions can act as proxies for the unobserved confounders. We show how, given only a latent variable model for states and actions, policy value can be identified from off-policy data. Our method involves two stages. In the first, we show how to use proxies to estimate stationary distribution ratios, extending recent work on breaking the curse of horizon to the confounded setting. In the second, we show optimal balancing can be combined with such learned ratios to obtain policy value while avoiding direct modeling of reward functions. We establish theoretical guarantees of consistency, and benchmark our method empirically.

Andrew Bennett, Nathan Kallus

Recent work on policy learning from observational data has highlighted the importance of efficient policy evaluation and has proposed reductions to weighted (cost-sensitive) classification. But, efficient policy evaluation need not yield efficient estimation of policy parameters. We consider the estimation problem given by a weighted surrogate-loss classification reduction of policy learning with any score function, either direct, inverse-propensity weighted, or doubly robust. We show that, under a correct specification assumption, the weighted classification formulation need not be efficient for policy parameters. We draw a contrast to actual (possibly weighted) binary classification, where correct specification implies a parametric model, while for policy learning it only implies a semiparametric model. In light of this, we instead propose an estimation approach based on generalized method of moments, which is efficient for the policy parameters. We propose a particular method based on recent developments on solving moment problems using neural networks and demonstrate the efficiency and regret benefits of this method empirically.

Andrew Bennett, Nathan Kallus

Evaluating novel contextual bandit policies using logged data is crucial in applications where exploration is costly, such as medicine. But it usually relies on the assumption of no unobserved confounders, which is bound to fail in practice. We study the question of policy evaluation when we instead have proxies for the latent confounders and develop an importance weighting method that avoids fitting a latent outcome regression model. We show that unlike the unconfounded case no single set of weights can give unbiased evaluation for all outcome models, yet we propose a new algorithm that can still provably guarantee consistency by instead minimizing an adversarial balance objective. We further develop tractable algorithms for optimizing this objective and demonstrate empirically the power of our method when confounders are latent.

Andrew Bennett, Nathan Kallus, Tobias Schnabel

Instrumental variable analysis is a powerful tool for estimating causal effects when randomization or full control of confounders is not possible. The application of standard methods such as 2SLS, GMM, and more recent variants are significantly impeded when the causal effects are complex, the instruments are high-dimensional, and/or the treatment is high-dimensional. In this paper, we propose the DeepGMM algorithm to overcome this. Our algorithm is based on a new variational reformulation of GMM with optimal inverse-covariance weighting that allows us to efficiently control very many moment conditions. We further develop practical techniques for optimization and model selection that make it particularly successful in practice. Our algorithm is also computationally tractable and can handle large-scale datasets. Numerical results show our algorithm matches the performance of the best tuned methods in standard settings and continues to work in high-dimensional settings where even recent methods break.

Dipendra Misra, Andrew Bennett, Valts Blukis et al.

We propose to decompose instruction execution to goal prediction and action generation. We design a model that maps raw visual observations to goals using LINGUNET, a language-conditioned image generation network, and then generates the actions required to complete them. Our model is trained from demonstration only without external resources. To evaluate our approach, we introduce two benchmarks for instruction following: LANI, a navigation task; and CHAI, where an agent executes household instructions. Our evaluation demonstrates the advantages of our model decomposition, and illustrates the challenges posed by our new benchmarks.

Jay Jay Billings, Andrew R. Bennett, Jordan Deyton et al.

Problems in modeling and simulation require significantly different workflow management technologies than standard grid-based workflow management systems. Computational scientists typically interact with simulation software in a feedback driven way were solutions and workflows are developed iteratively and simultaneously. This work describes common activities in workflows and how combinations of these activities form unique workflows. It presents the Eclipse Integrated Computational Environment as a workflow management system and development environment for the modeling and simulation community. Examples of the Environment's applicability to problems in energy science, general multiphysics simulations, quantum computing and other areas are presented as well as its impact on the community.