Peter Thwaites

Kathryn Laing, Peter Adam Thwaites, John Paul Gosling

Conditional preference networks (CP-nets) are a graphical representation of a person's (conditional) preferences over a set of discrete variables. In this paper, we introduce a novel method of quantifying preference for any given outcome based on a CP-net representation of a user's preferences. We demonstrate that these values are useful for reasoning about user preferences. In particular, they allow us to order (any subset of) the possible outcomes in accordance with the user's preferences. Further, these values can be used to improve the efficiency of outcome dominance testing. That is, given a pair of outcomes, we can determine which the user prefers more efficiently. Through experimental results, we show that this method is more effective than existing techniques for improving dominance testing efficiency. We show that the above results also hold for CP-nets that express indifference between variable values.

Peter A. Thwaites, Jim Q. Smith

Bayesian Networks (BNs) are popular graphical models for the representation of statistical problems embodying dependence relationships between a number of variables. Much of this popularity is due to the d-separation theorem of Pearl and Lauritzen, which allows an analyst to identify the conditional independence statements that a model of the problem embodies using only the topology of the graph. However for many problems the complete model dependence structure cannot be depicted by a BN. The Chain Event Graph (CEG) was introduced for these types of problem. In this paper we introduce a separation theorem for CEGs, analogous to the d-separation theorem for BNs, which likewise allows an analyst to identify the conditional independence structure of their model from the topology of the graph.

Peter Thwaites, Jim Q. Smith, Robert G. Cowell

A Chain Event Graph (CEG) is a graphial model which designed to embody conditional independencies in problems whose state spaces are highly asymmetric and do not admit a natural product structure. In this paer we present a probability propagation algorithm which uses the topology of the CEG to build a transporter CEG. Intriungly,the transporter CEG is directly analogous to the triangulated Bayesian Network (BN) in the more conventional junction tree propagation algorithms used with BNs. The propagation method uses factorization formulae also analogous to (but different from) the ones using potentials on cliques and separators of the BN. It appears that the methods will be typically more efficient than the BN algorithms when applied to contexts where there is significant asymmetry present.