Amirpasha Hedayat

Amirpasha Hedayat, Ali Mohaghegh, Laura Balzano et al.

Reduced-order models (ROMs) can accelerate high-dimensional dynamical simulations, but their accuracy often deteriorates when online dynamics leave the regime represented by offline training data. We develop a projection-based adaptive ROM framework based on incremental singular value decomposition (iSVD), in which occasional full-order operator evaluations provide correction snapshots for online basis updates. The intrusive ROMs considered here are fully parameterized by the basis, so each update naturally propagates to reduced operators and hyper-reduction machinery. Through its evolving singular structure, iSVD retains an encoded history of the observed dynamics and is history-aware in this sense. We study the method on three nonlinear problems of increasing complexity: the one-dimensional viscous Burgers equation, the Sod shock tube, and a stiff one-dimensional ten-species rotating detonation engine (RDE). The Burgers problem is used to analyze the method and compare iSVD with alternative basis adaptation rules, showing that history-aware updates outperform instantaneous updates and that iSVD gives the strongest overall performance. The Sod and RDE cases demonstrate that these advantages persist in more challenging compressible-flow settings. For the RDE problem, the iSVD adaptive ROM improves upon the current state-of-the-art Direct adaptive ROM baseline in both predictive accuracy and computational efficiency. A cost analysis shows that the dominant online cost comes from interacting with the full-order model to obtain correction snapshots, while the iSVD update itself is negligible. These results identify iSVD as an effective mechanism for online learning of reduced subspaces and suggest a path toward ROMs that remain predictive over horizons several orders of magnitude longer than their initial training window.

Amirpasha Hedayat, Laura Balzano, Karthik Duraisamy

Reduced-order models compress high-dimensional dynamics into low-dimensional representations that can be evaluated rapidly, but they lose accuracy when online dynamics drift beyond the training data. Adaptive methods address this by updating the subspace online with external, out-of-span information, such as full-order corrections or sensor snapshots. We discovered that a complementary and previously unexploited in-span adaptation channel exists within the current reduced subspace. By streaming the model's own predictions through an incremental singular-value decomposition with forgetting, we obtain a trajectory-informed spectral preconditioner, in which the subspace is unchanged but the basis is reweighted and realigned toward the modes visited by the dynamics. This enables the model to absorb future out-of-span corrections more effectively. We expose aspects of this mechanism on a three-dimensional spiral and confirm it on viscous Burgers and Fisher-KPP dynamics. We also discuss how in-span learning can be viewed as a dynamical-systems analogue of in-context learning. More broadly, in-span learning suggests a new principle for computational science, revealing that model-generated trajectories contain more usable information than previously recognized.

Amirpasha Hedayat, Alberto Padovan, Karthik Duraisamy

Projection-based Reduced Order Models (ROMs) are often deployed as static surrogates, which limits their practical utility once a system leaves the training manifold. We formalize and study adaptive non-intrusive ROMs that update both the latent subspace and the reduced dynamics online. Building on ideas from static non-intrusive ROMs, specifically, Operator Inference (OpInf) and the recently-introduced Non-intrusive Trajectory-based optimization of Reduced-Order Models (NiTROM), we propose three formulations: Adaptive OpInf (sequential basis/operator refits), Adaptive NiTROM (joint Riemannian optimization of encoder/decoder and polynomial dynamics), and a hybrid that initializes NiTROM with an OpInf update. We describe the online data window, adaptation window, and computational budget, and analyze cost scaling. On a transiently perturbed lid-driven cavity flow, static Galerkin/OpInf/NiTROM drift or destabilize when forecasting beyond training. In contrast, Adaptive OpInf robustly suppresses amplitude drift with modest cost; Adaptive NiTROM is shown to attain near-exact energy tracking under frequent updates but is sensitive to its initialization and optimization depth; the hybrid is most reliable under regime changes and minimal offline data, yielding physically coherent fields and bounded energy. We argue that predictive claims for ROMs must be cost-aware and transparent, with clear separation of training/adaptation/deployment regimes and explicit reporting of online budgets and full-order model queries. This work provides a practical template for building self-correcting, non-intrusive ROMs that remain effective as the dynamics evolve well beyond the initial manifold.

Amirpasha Hedayat, Karthik Duraisamy

Weather prediction is a quintessential problem involving the forecasting of a complex, nonlinear, and chaotic high-dimensional dynamical system. This work introduces an efficient reduced-order modeling (ROM) framework for short-range weather prediction and investigates fundamental questions in dimensionality reduction and reduced order modeling of such systems. Unlike recent AI-driven models, which require extensive computational resources, our framework prioritizes efficiency while achieving reasonable accuracy. Specifically, a ResNet-based convolutional autoencoder augmented by block attention modules is developed to reduce the dimensionality of high-dimensional weather data. Subsequently, a linear operator is learned in the time-delayed embedding of the latent space to efficiently capture the dynamics. Using the ERA5 reanalysis dataset, we demonstrate that this framework performs well in-distribution as evidenced by effectively predicting weather patterns within training data periods. We also identify important limitations in generalizing to future states, particularly in maintaining prediction accuracy beyond the training window. Our analysis reveals that weather systems exhibit strong temporal correlations that can be effectively captured through linear operations in an appropriately constructed embedding space, and that projection error rather than inference error is the main bottleneck. These findings shed light on some key challenges in reduced-order modeling of chaotic systems and point toward opportunities for hybrid approaches that combine efficient reduced-order models as baselines with more sophisticated AI architectures, particularly for applications in long-term climate modeling where computational efficiency is paramount.