Lucy Marshall

Carlo Malapad Acosta, Herath Mudiyanselage Viraj Vidura Herath, Jia Yu Lim et al.

Flood models inform strategic disaster management by simulating the spatiotemporal hydrodynamics of flooding. While physics-based numerical flood models are accurate, their substantial computational cost limits their use in operational settings where rapid predictions are essential. Models designed with graph neural networks (GNNs) provide both speed and accuracy while having the ability to process unstructured spatial domains. Given its flexible input and architecture, GNNs can be leveraged alongside physics-informed techniques with ease, significantly improving interpretability. This study introduces a novel flood GNN architecture, DUALFloodGNN, which embeds physical constraints at both global and local scales through explicit loss terms. The model jointly predicts water volume at nodes and flow along edges through a shared message-passing framework. To improve performance for autoregressive inference, model training is conducted with a multi-step loss enhanced with dynamic curriculum learning. Compared with standard GNN architectures and state-of-the-art GNN flood models, DUALFloodGNN achieves substantial improvements in predicting multiple hydrologic variables while maintaining high computational efficiency. The model is open-sourced at https://github.com/acostacos/dual_flood_gnn.

Timothy O. Hodson, Thomas M. Over, Tyler J. Smith et al.

In machine learning or scientific computing, model performance is measured with an objective function. But why choose one objective over another? Information theory gives one answer: To maximize the information in the model, select the objective function that represents the error in the fewest bits. To evaluate different objectives, transform them into likelihood functions. As likelihoods, their relative magnitude represents how strongly we should prefer one objective versus another, and the log of that relation represents the difference in their bit-length, as well as the difference in their uncertainty. In other words, prefer whichever objective minimizes the uncertainty. Under the information-theoretic paradigm, the ultimate objective is to maximize information (and minimize uncertainty), as opposed to any specific utility. We argue that this paradigm is well-suited to models that have many uses and no definite utility, like the large Earth system models used to understand the effects of climate change.

Low Jun Yu, Niramay Kachhadiya, Herath Mudiyanselage Viraj Vidura Herath et al.

Fine-scale rainfall reconstruction is critical for urban flood modeling, but real rainfall sensing systems observe the field through incompatible spatial supports: gauges measure points, microwave links measure paths, and radar/satellite products measure gridded areas. These differences in measurement support impose geometrically distinct constraints on the rainfall field, yet existing heterogeneous graph approaches reconcile such sources in feature space, giving each its own embedding while discarding the geometry of its support. We propose a geometry-aware multi-support heterogeneous graph neural network that represents each observation according to its support type (0D point, 1D line, or 2D grid) as a distinct node layer, and fuses them through cross-support message passing into a point-support prediction layer from which the field is reconstructed. An inductive masked-node formulation decouples prediction resolution from sensing resolution, allowing the same trained model to reconstruct the field at user-defined target locations or display grids. On Singapore data, the proposed method reduces RMSE by 23.2\% over the classical interpolation baseline, inverse-distance weighting, and consistently outperforms other neural architectures such as convolutional fusion and support-agnostic heterogeneous graph baselines. A generalization study using data from Sydney, Australia lets us characterize when multi-support fusion helps: the available skill appears to depend on gauge spacing relative to the spatial correlation length of the field, so fusion delivers the largest gains where the field is under-sampled relative to its correlation length and little when it is already resolved. Code and models will be open-sourced upon paper acceptance.