Monica Bobra

Zeyu Sun, Monica G. Bobra, Xiantong Wang et al.

We consider the flare prediction problem that distinguishes flare-imminent active regions that produce an M- or X-class flare in the future 24 hours, from quiet active regions that do not produce any flare within $\pm 24$ hours. Using line-of-sight magnetograms and parameters of active regions in two data products covering Solar Cycle 23 and 24, we train and evaluate two deep learning algorithms -- CNN and LSTM -- and their stacking ensembles. The decisions of CNN are explained using visual attribution methods. We have the following three main findings. (1) LSTM trained on data from two solar cycles achieves significantly higher True Skill Scores (TSS) than that trained on data from a single solar cycle with a confidence level of at least 0.95. (2) On data from Solar Cycle 23, a stacking ensemble that combines predictions from LSTM and CNN using the TSS criterion achieves significantly higher TSS than the "select-best" strategy with a confidence level of at least 0.95. (3) A visual attribution method called Integrated Gradients is able to attribute the CNN's predictions of flares to the emerging magnetic flux in the active region. It also reveals a limitation of CNN as a flare prediction method using line-of-sight magnetograms: it treats the polarity artifact of line-of-sight magnetograms as positive evidence of flares.

Genevieve Smith, Hiral Patel, Steven Luo et al.

Debates over open source and openness in artificial intelligence have intensified as policymakers, researchers, and practitioners grapple with how foundation models should be developed and governed to balance innovation, accountability, and public interest. However, there has been limited empirical work examining how diverse stakeholders collectively understand and negotiate responsible openness in AI, particularly through participatory processes that extend beyond industry-led definitions and frameworks. This paper presents findings from a multi-sectoral workshop grounded in futures thinking and participatory design methods. The workshop generated co-created visions of desirable futures and the role of AI, alongside a set of action pathways and a research roadmap focused on responsible open source and openness in AI. This paper makes three key contributions. First, it empirically documents the co-created visions, actions, and research priorities. Second, it identifies four core tensions that emerged as participants translated high-level aspirations into concrete actions, revealing conflicting interpretations of openness regarding its purpose (as an end or a means), its scope (expansion versus meaningful access), and its operation (mandatory versus conditional, sufficient versus dependent on governance and use). These tensions illustrate that responsible openness is not a singular technical solution, but a negotiated sociotechnical project shaped by values, positionalities, and priorities. Third, the paper advances methodological approaches in AI governance by demonstrating how participatory futures methods can surface plural visions, actions, and research priorities that extend beyond dominant, largely corporate, narratives, offering empirical insight into how openness, power, and accountability are negotiated in practice.

R. M. McGranaghan, B. Thompson, E. Camporeale et al.

Three main points: 1. Data Science (DS) will be increasingly important to heliophysics; 2. Methods of heliophysics science discovery will continually evolve, requiring the use of learning technologies [e.g., machine learning (ML)] that are applied rigorously and that are capable of supporting discovery; and 3. To grow with the pace of data, technology, and workforce changes, heliophysics requires a new approach to the representation of knowledge.

Spiridon Kasapis, Pouya Hosseinzadeh, Kathryn Whitman et al.

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events have attracted increasing attention due to their significant radiation hazards for aviation, spacecraft electronics, and human missions beyond Earth's magnetosphere. From a scientific perspective, SEP events are intriguing because they arise from a set of physical processes extending from the solar surface and corona through the heliosphere, offering insight into particle acceleration and transport mechanisms that are widely applicable across astrophysics. Therefore, advancing our ability to understand and predict SEP events is essential both for deepening our knowledge of such mechanisms and for safeguarding space technologies and exploration. Traditionally, researchers have modeled SEPs using physics-based simulations and empirical methods. More recently, machine learning (ML) has emerged as a new tool for understanding and predicting SEP events. The purpose of this manuscript is to review the currently available ML models for SEP prediction, identify the datasets used for training, compare their architectures, inputs, and outputs, and, based on these insights, outline good practices and recommendations for future research.

Carl Shneider, Andong Hu, Ajay K. Tiwari et al.

We present a Python tool to generate a standard dataset from solar images that allows for user-defined selection criteria and a range of pre-processing steps. Our Python tool works with all image products from both the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SoHO) and Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) missions. We discuss a dataset produced from the SoHO mission's multi-spectral images which is free of missing or corrupt data as well as planetary transits in coronagraph images, and is temporally synced making it ready for input to a machine learning system. Machine-learning-ready images are a valuable resource for the community because they can be used, for example, for forecasting space weather parameters. We illustrate the use of this data with a 3-5 day-ahead forecast of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) observed at Lagrange point one (L1). For this use case, we apply a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) to a subset of the full SoHO dataset and compare with baseline results from a Gaussian Naive Bayes classifier.

Richard Galvez, David F. Fouhey, Meng Jin et al.

In this paper we present a curated dataset from the NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission in a format suitable for machine learning research. Beginning from level 1 scientific products we have processed various instrumental corrections, downsampled to manageable spatial and temporal resolutions, and synchronized observations spatially and temporally. We illustrate the use of this dataset with two example applications: forecasting future EVE irradiance from present EVE irradiance and translating HMI observations into AIA observations. For each application we provide metrics and baselines for future model comparison. We anticipate this curated dataset will facilitate machine learning research in heliophysics and the physical sciences generally, increasing the scientific return of the SDO mission. This work is a direct result of the 2018 NASA Frontier Development Laboratory Program. Please see the appendix for access to the dataset.