Alexander Tsigler

Alina A. von Davier, Xiaowan Zhang, Yigal Attali et al.

The large-scale digitization of educational assessment has made the continuous oversight of item banks both essential and complex. This paper presents Analytics for Quality Assurance for Item Pools (AQuAP), a dashboard environment for monitoring item quality and item bank health. AQuAP supports the operational implementation of the large scale item generation procedures for high-stakes tests as included in the Item Factory, a framework for automated and human-supported test development. The paper describes AQuAP in relationship with the process of item development, outlines the broader metric framework for item-pool quality assurance, and highlights the Effective Bank Size (EBS) as one central indicator of pool vitality. EBS quantifies how many independent test sessions can be constructed before content repetition occurs and, when coupled with exposure and usage metrics, provides insight into item bank security, diversity, and efficiency. We further introduce bank-health metrics, such as maximum exposure, maximum conditional exposure, adjusted effective bank size, and the rarely-administered fraction, all of which extend this picture of item utilization. AQuAP illustrates how operational analytics can translate psychometric concepts into quality assurance tools for high-volume, AI-enabled testing programs. This work is illustrated with the Duolingo English Test (DET) processes.

Alexander Tsigler, Luiz F. O. Chamon, Spencer Frei et al.

In this work, we investigate the behavior of ridge regression in an overparameterized binary classification task. We assume examples are drawn from (anisotropic) class-conditional cluster distributions with opposing means and we allow for the training labels to have a constant level of label-flipping noise. We characterize the classification error achieved by ridge regression under the assumption that the covariance matrix of the cluster distribution has a high effective rank in the tail. We show that ridge regression has qualitatively different behavior depending on the scale of the cluster mean vector and its interaction with the covariance matrix of the cluster distributions. In regimes where the scale is very large, the conditions that allow for benign overfitting turn out to be the same as those for the regression task. We additionally provide insights into how the introduction of label noise affects the behavior of the minimum norm interpolator (MNI). The optimal classifier in this setting is a linear transformation of the cluster mean vector and in the noiseless setting the MNI approximately learns this transformation. On the other hand, the introduction of label noise can significantly change the geometry of the solution while preserving the same qualitative behavior.

A. Tsigler, P. L. Bartlett

In many modern applications of deep learning the neural network has many more parameters than the data points used for its training. Motivated by those practices, a large body of recent theoretical research has been devoted to studying overparameterized models. One of the central phenomena in this regime is the ability of the model to interpolate noisy data, but still have test error lower than the amount of noise in that data. arXiv:1906.11300 characterized for which covariance structure of the data such a phenomenon can happen in linear regression if one considers the interpolating solution with minimum $\ell_2$-norm and the data has independent components: they gave a sharp bound on the variance term and showed that it can be small if and only if the data covariance has high effective rank in a subspace of small co-dimension. We strengthen and complete their results by eliminating the independence assumption and providing sharp bounds for the bias term. Thus, our results apply in a much more general setting than those of arXiv:1906.11300, e.g., kernel regression, and not only characterize how the noise is damped but also which part of the true signal is learned. Moreover, we extend the result to the setting of ridge regression, which allows us to explain another interesting phenomenon: we give general sufficient conditions under which the optimal regularization is negative.

Peter L. Bartlett, Philip M. Long, Gábor Lugosi et al.

The phenomenon of benign overfitting is one of the key mysteries uncovered by deep learning methodology: deep neural networks seem to predict well, even with a perfect fit to noisy training data. Motivated by this phenomenon, we consider when a perfect fit to training data in linear regression is compatible with accurate prediction. We give a characterization of linear regression problems for which the minimum norm interpolating prediction rule has near-optimal prediction accuracy. The characterization is in terms of two notions of the effective rank of the data covariance. It shows that overparameterization is essential for benign overfitting in this setting: the number of directions in parameter space that are unimportant for prediction must significantly exceed the sample size. By studying examples of data covariance properties that this characterization shows are required for benign overfitting, we find an important role for finite-dimensional data: the accuracy of the minimum norm interpolating prediction rule approaches the best possible accuracy for a much narrower range of properties of the data distribution when the data lies in an infinite dimensional space versus when the data lies in a finite dimensional space whose dimension grows faster than the sample size.