Alexandru Marcoci

Lexin Zhou, Pablo A. Moreno-Casares, Fernando Martínez-Plumed et al. · cambridge

We introduce the fundamental ideas and challenges of Predictable AI, a nascent research area that explores the ways in which we can anticipate key validity indicators (e.g., performance, safety) of present and future AI ecosystems. We argue that achieving predictability is crucial for fostering trust, liability, control, alignment and safety of AI ecosystems, and thus should be prioritised over performance. We formally characterise predictability, explore its most relevant components, illustrate what can be predicted, describe alternative candidates for predictors, as well as the trade-offs between maximising validity and predictability. To illustrate these concepts, we bring an array of illustrative examples covering diverse ecosystem configurations. Predictable AI is related to other areas of technical and non-technical AI research, but have distinctive questions, hypotheses, techniques and challenges. This paper aims to elucidate them, calls for identifying paths towards a landscape of predictably valid AI systems and outlines the potential impact of this emergent field.

Xingran Ruan, Angelo Salatino, Rosa Filgueira et al.

This paper presents preliminary findings from a UKRI-funded Metascience project comparing three LLM-based approaches, GPT-4o, Mistral, and a bespoke algorithm, DSIT-Taxonomies, for extracting and classifying research entities from funding proposals. Our project "Tracking Stars and Unicorns" aims to identify early signals of emerging research areas to inform public investment. Our methodology employed a three-stage pipeline, leveraging Mistral for primary entity extraction and mapping against the OpenAlex Topics taxonomy. We evaluated our approach across 42 proposals' abstracts from different areas and observed that Mistral and GPT-4o produce comparable, high-quality entity sets with significant semantic overlap, outperforming the fragmented DSIT-Taxonomies approach. Crucially, the Mistral-based approach achieved superior topic classification accuracy (90.5%) compared to the full DSIT-Taxonomies pipeline (71.4%). We conclude that Mistral offers a high-performance, operationally efficient, and secure solution for large-scale analysis of sensitive grant data.