Marjan Famili

Marjan Famili, Jola Mirecka, Camila Rangel Smith et al.

Learning compact and interpretable representations of data is a critical challenge in scientific image analysis. Here, we introduce Affinity-VAE, a generative model that enables us to impose our scientific intuition about the similarity of instances in the dataset on the learned representation during training. We demonstrate the utility of the approach in the scientific domain of cryo-electron tomography (cryo-ET) where a significant current challenge is to identify similar molecules within a noisy and low contrast tomographic image volume. This task is distinct from classification in that, at inference time, it is unknown whether an instance is part of the training set or not. We trained affinity-VAE using prior knowledge of protein structure to inform the latent space. Our model is able to create rotationally-invariant, morphologically homogeneous clusters in the latent representation, with improved cluster separation compared to other approaches. It achieves competitive performance on protein classification with the added benefit of disentangling object pose, structural similarity and an interpretable latent representation. In the context of cryo-ET data, affinity-VAE captures the orientation of identified proteins in 3D which can be used as a prior for subsequent scientific experiments. Extracting physical principles from a trained network is of significant importance in scientific imaging where a ground truth training set is not always feasible.

Sam F. Greenbury, Radka Jersakova, Paolo Conti et al.

Two dominant approaches have emerged for generating probabilistic forecasts of physical systems: generative models, such as diffusion or flow matching; and ensembles of deterministic models with stochasticity injected, trained using the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) loss. While both approaches have demonstrated strong predictive accuracy, the reliability of their uncertainties has not been systematically assessed. We address this gap by developing a framework to evaluate both approaches across diverse 2D spatiotemporal physical systems, under matched model size and computational budget. We assess the reliability of probabilistic emulation by inspecting the empirical coverage of predictive intervals, while also considering accuracy and computational efficiency metrics. CRPS-trained ensembles typically achieve more reliable uncertainties on both single-step prediction and autoregressive rollouts, demonstrating better coverage than the standard alternative of training generative models in a latent space. Moreover, the CRPS approach offers significantly faster inference. When generative models are trained in ambient rather than a compressed latent space, which is often infeasible for high-dimensional problems, they exhibit comparable coverage to CRPS-trained ensembles, though with substantially larger inference latency. In contrast, when CRPS-trained ensembles are trained in latent space they do not show a marked degradation in coverage with respect to ambient space. Both generative models and CRPS-trained ensembles demonstrate good predictive accuracy. To facilitate future research and application, we release AutoCast, a modular framework implementing both generative models and CRPS-trained ensembles, alongside AutoSim, a flexible dataset generation package for rapid prototyping.