Quentin Besnard

Quentin Besnard, Emmanuel Doumard, Nicolas Labroche et al.

Deep learning models have shown strong potential for time series forecasting, yet their deployment in real-world environmental monitoring remains challenging due to non-stationary dynamics and limited explainability. In this work, we investigate explainability as a central tool for understanding continual learning in adaptive time series forecasting, with Experience Replay strategies. We study neural forecasting architectures such as PatchMixer, PatchTST and DLinear, augmented with attention-based sampling mechanisms to support model adaptation over time. Explainability is leveraged through attention rollout and gradient-based attribution methods (Grad-CAM) to analyze both predictive behavior and sampling strategies within a continual learning framework. Experiments conducted on real-world piezometric time series exhibiting heterogeneous patterns and regime shifts show that analyzing model and sampling behaviors provides valuable insights into the dynamics of the continual learning framework. Beyond predictive performance, our results highlight the challenges and opportunities of using explainability to understand continual learning behaviors, revealing how attribution patterns evolve over time and how they can inform data selection and adaptation strategies in non-stationary forecasting scenarios.

Quentin Besnard, Nicolas Ragot

Deep learning has led to remarkable progress in artificial intelligence, particularly in robotics, imaging and sound processing. However, a major limitation of neural networks remains their strong dependence on large and stationary datasets. In many real-world applications, these conditions are rarely met due to evolving and dynamic environments where data distributions change over time. Continual learning aims to address this challenge by developing models capable of adapting incrementally while maintaining a balance between stability and plasticity under computational constraints. In this work, we introduce a novel framework for continual time series forecasting, designed to extend existing static forecasting models commonly used in the literature by incorporating an Experience Replay strategy guided by Attention mechanisms. This approach allows the model to adapt dynamically to new contexts while preserving prior knowledge, effectively mitigating catastrophic forgetting. The framework is evaluated on standard forecasting benchmarks as well as on a piezometric dataset exhibiting diverse temporal behaviors. Results show that our approach effectively increases or maintains predictive performance over time while reducing retraining costs and data requirements, thus facilitating the deployment of forecasting models in dynamic and real-world settings.