Ziqi Liu

Ziqi Liu

Long-term time series forecasting is essential in areas like finance and weather prediction. Besides traditional methods that operate in the time domain, many recent models transform time series data into the frequency domain to better capture complex patterns. However, these methods often use filtering techniques to remove certain frequency signals as noise, which may unintentionally discard important information and reduce prediction accuracy. To address this, we propose the Frequency Decomposition Mixture-of-Experts (FreqMoE) model, which dynamically decomposes time series data into frequency bands, each processed by a specialized expert. A gating mechanism adjusts the importance of each output of expert based on frequency characteristics, and the aggregated results are fed into a prediction module that iteratively refines the forecast using residual connections. Our experiments demonstrate that FreqMoE outperforms state-of-the-art models, achieving the best performance on 51 out of 70 metrics across all tested datasets, while significantly reducing the number of required parameters to under 50k, providing notable efficiency advantages. Code is available at: https://github.com/sunbus100/FreqMoE-main

Yuling Wang, Changxin Tian, Binbin Hu et al.

Large language models (LLMs) open up new horizons for sequential recommendations, owing to their remarkable language comprehension and generation capabilities. However, there are still numerous challenges that should be addressed to successfully implement sequential recommendations empowered by LLMs. Firstly, user behavior patterns are often complex, and relying solely on one-step reasoning from LLMs may lead to incorrect or task-irrelevant responses. Secondly, the prohibitively resource requirements of LLM (e.g., ChatGPT-175B) are overwhelmingly high and impractical for real sequential recommender systems. In this paper, we propose a novel Step-by-step knowLedge dIstillation fraMework for recommendation (SLIM), paving a promising path for sequential recommenders to enjoy the exceptional reasoning capabilities of LLMs in a "slim" (i.e., resource-efficient) manner. We introduce CoT prompting based on user behavior sequences for the larger teacher model. The rationales generated by the teacher model are then utilized as labels to distill the downstream smaller student model (e.g., LLaMA2-7B). In this way, the student model acquires the step-by-step reasoning capabilities in recommendation tasks. We encode the generated rationales from the student model into a dense vector, which empowers recommendation in both ID-based and ID-agnostic scenarios. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of SLIM over state-of-the-art baselines, and further analysis showcasing its ability to generate meaningful recommendation reasoning at affordable costs.

Changxin Tian, Kunlong Chen, Jia Liu et al.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) has become a dominant architecture for scaling Large Language Models (LLMs) efficiently by decoupling total parameters from computational cost. However, this decoupling creates a critical challenge: predicting the model capacity of a given MoE configurations (e.g., expert activation ratio and granularity) remains an unresolved problem. To address this gap, we introduce Efficiency Leverage (EL), a metric quantifying the computational advantage of an MoE model over a dense equivalent. We conduct a large-scale empirical study, training over 300 models up to 28B parameters, to systematically investigate the relationship between MoE architectural configurations and EL. Our findings reveal that EL is primarily driven by the expert activation ratio and the total compute budget, both following predictable power laws, while expert granularity acts as a non-linear modulator with a clear optimal range. We integrate these discoveries into a unified scaling law that accurately predicts the EL of an MoE architecture based on its configuration. To validate our derived scaling laws, we designed and trained Ling-mini-beta, a pilot model for Ling-2.0 series with only 0.85B active parameters, alongside a 6.1B dense model for comparison. When trained on an identical 1T high-quality token dataset, Ling-mini-beta matched the performance of the 6.1B dense model while consuming over 7x fewer computational resources, thereby confirming the accuracy of our scaling laws. This work provides a principled and empirically-grounded foundation for the scaling of efficient MoE models.

Ziqi. Liu, Ziyang. Zhou, Mingxuan. Hu

Large language model (LLM) have become mainstream methods in the field of sarcasm detection. However, existing LLM methods face challenges in irony detection, including: 1. single-perspective limitations, 2. insufficient comprehensive understanding, and 3. lack of interpretability. This paper introduces the Collaborative Agent Framework for Irony (CAF-I), an LLM-driven multi-agent system designed to overcome these issues. CAF-I employs specialized agents for Context, Semantics, and Rhetoric, which perform multidimensional analysis and engage in interactive collaborative optimization. A Decision Agent then consolidates these perspectives, with a Refinement Evaluator Agent providing conditional feedback for optimization. Experiments on benchmark datasets establish CAF-I's state-of-the-art zero-shot performance. Achieving SOTA on the vast majority of metrics, CAF-I reaches an average Macro-F1 of 76.31, a 4.98 absolute improvement over the strongest prior baseline. This success is attained by its effective simulation of human-like multi-perspective analysis, enhancing detection accuracy and interpretability.

Binbin Hu, Zhicheng An, Zhengwei Wu et al.

Estimating individual treatment effects (ITE) from observational data is a critical task across various domains. However, many existing works on ITE estimation overlook the influence of hidden confounders, which remain unobserved at the individual unit level. To address this limitation, researchers have utilized graph neural networks to aggregate neighbors' features to capture the hidden confounders and mitigate confounding bias by minimizing the discrepancy of confounder representations between the treated and control groups. Despite the success of these approaches, practical scenarios often treat all features as confounders and involve substantial differences in feature distributions between the treated and control groups. Confusing the adjustment and confounder and enforcing strict balance on the confounder representations could potentially undermine the effectiveness of outcome prediction. To mitigate this issue, we propose a novel framework called the \textit{Graph Disentangle Causal model} (GDC) to conduct ITE estimation in the network setting. GDC utilizes a causal disentangle module to separate unit features into adjustment and confounder representations. Then we design a graph aggregation module consisting of three distinct graph aggregators to obtain adjustment, confounder, and counterfactual confounder representations. Finally, a causal constraint module is employed to enforce the disentangled representations as true causal factors. The effectiveness of our proposed method is demonstrated by conducting comprehensive experiments on two networked datasets.

Jiapeng Wang, Changxin Tian, Kunlong Chen et al.

Reliable evaluation is fundamental to the progress of Large Language Models (LLMs), yet the evaluation process during pre-training is plagued by significant instability that obscures true learning dynamics. In this work, we systematically diagnose this instability, attributing it to two distinct sources: \textit{Parameter Instability} from training stochasticity and \textit{Evaluation Instability} from noisy measurement protocols. To counteract both sources of noise, we introduce \textbf{MaP}, a dual-pronged framework that synergistically integrates checkpoint \underline{M}erging \underline{a}nd the \underline{P}ass@k metric. Checkpoint merging smooths the parameter space by averaging recent model weights, while Pass@k provides a robust, low-variance statistical estimate of model capability. Extensive experiments show that MaP yields significantly smoother performance curves, reduces inter-run variance, and ensures more consistent model rankings. Ultimately, MaP provides a more reliable and faithful lens for observing LLM training dynamics, laying a crucial empirical foundation for LLM research.

Hao Qian, Hongting Zhou, Qian Zhao et al.

The stock market is a crucial component of the financial system, but predicting the movement of stock prices is challenging due to the dynamic and intricate relations arising from various aspects such as economic indicators, financial reports, global news, and investor sentiment. Traditional sequential methods and graph-based models have been applied in stock movement prediction, but they have limitations in capturing the multifaceted and temporal influences in stock price movements. To address these challenges, the Multi-relational Dynamic Graph Neural Network (MDGNN) framework is proposed, which utilizes a discrete dynamic graph to comprehensively capture multifaceted relations among stocks and their evolution over time. The representation generated from the graph offers a complete perspective on the interrelationships among stocks and associated entities. Additionally, the power of the Transformer structure is leveraged to encode the temporal evolution of multiplex relations, providing a dynamic and effective approach to predicting stock investment. Further, our proposed MDGNN framework achieves the best performance in public datasets compared with state-of-the-art (SOTA) stock investment methods.

Zhibo Zhu, Ziqi Liu, Ge Jin et al.

Time series forecasting is widely used in business intelligence, e.g., forecast stock market price, sales, and help the analysis of data trend. Most time series of interest are macroscopic time series that are aggregated from microscopic data. However, instead of directly modeling the macroscopic time series, rare literature studied the forecasting of macroscopic time series by leveraging data on the microscopic level. In this paper, we assume that the microscopic time series follow some unknown mixture probabilistic distributions. We theoretically show that as we identify the ground truth latent mixture components, the estimation of time series from each component could be improved because of lower variance, thus benefitting the estimation of macroscopic time series as well. Inspired by the power of Seq2seq and its variants on the modeling of time series data, we propose Mixture of Seq2seq (MixSeq), an end2end mixture model to cluster microscopic time series, where all the components come from a family of Seq2seq models parameterized by different parameters. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world data show the superiority of our approach.

Ziqi Liu, Wei Cai, Zhi-Qin John Xu

In this paper, we propose multi-scale deep neural networks (MscaleDNNs) using the idea of radial scaling in frequency domain and activation functions with compact support. The radial scaling converts the problem of approximation of high frequency contents of PDEs' solutions to a problem of learning about lower frequency functions, and the compact support activation functions facilitate the separation of frequency contents of the target function to be approximated by corresponding DNNs. As a result, the MscaleDNNs achieve fast uniform convergence over multiple scales. The proposed MscaleDNNs are shown to be superior to traditional fully connected DNNs and be an effective mesh-less numerical method for Poisson-Boltzmann equations with ample frequency contents over complex and singular domains.

Ziqi Liu, Dong Wang, Qianyu Yu et al.

Mobile payment such as Alipay has been widely used in our daily lives. To further promote the mobile payment activities, it is important to run marketing campaigns under a limited budget by providing incentives such as coupons, commissions to merchants. As a result, incentive optimization is the key to maximizing the commercial objective of the marketing campaign. With the analyses of online experiments, we found that the transaction network can subtly describe the similarity of merchants' responses to different incentives, which is of great use in the incentive optimization problem. In this paper, we present a graph representation learning method atop of transaction networks for merchant incentive optimization in mobile payment marketing. With limited samples collected from online experiments, our end-to-end method first learns merchant representations based on an attributed transaction networks, then effectively models the correlations between the commercial objectives each merchant may achieve and the incentives under varying treatments. Thus we are able to model the sensitivity to incentive for each merchant, and spend the most budgets on those merchants that show strong sensitivities in the marketing campaign. Extensive offline and online experimental results at Alipay demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach.

Chaochao Chen, Ziqi Liu, Jun Zhou et al.

Time-series forecasting is an important task in both academic and industry, which can be applied to solve many real forecasting problems like stock, water-supply, and sales predictions. In this paper, we study the case of retailers' sales forecasting on Tmall|the world's leading online B2C platform. By analyzing the data, we have two main observations, i.e., sales seasonality after we group different groups of retails and a Tweedie distribution after we transform the sales (target to forecast). Based on our observations, we design two mechanisms for sales forecasting, i.e., seasonality extraction and distribution transformation. First, we adopt Fourier decomposition to automatically extract the seasonalities for different categories of retailers, which can further be used as additional features for any established regression algorithms. Second, we propose to optimize the Tweedie loss of sales after logarithmic transformations. We apply these two mechanisms to classic regression models, i.e., neural network and Gradient Boosting Decision Tree, and the experimental results on Tmall dataset show that both mechanisms can significantly improve the forecasting results.

Ziqi Liu, Chaochao Chen, Longfei Li et al.

We present, GeniePath, a scalable approach for learning adaptive receptive fields of neural networks defined on permutation invariant graph data. In GeniePath, we propose an adaptive path layer consists of two complementary functions designed for breadth and depth exploration respectively, where the former learns the importance of different sized neighborhoods, while the latter extracts and filters signals aggregated from neighbors of different hops away. Our method works in both transductive and inductive settings, and extensive experiments compared with competitive methods show that our approaches yield state-of-the-art results on large graphs.