Yihong Wu

Fengran Mo, Chen Qu, Kelong Mao et al.

Conversational search supports multi-turn user-system interactions to solve complex information needs. Different from the traditional single-turn ad-hoc search, conversational search encounters a more challenging problem of context-dependent query understanding with the lengthy and long-tail conversational history context. While conversational query rewriting methods leverage explicit rewritten queries to train a rewriting model to transform the context-dependent query into a stand-stone search query, this is usually done without considering the quality of search results. Conversational dense retrieval methods use fine-tuning to improve a pre-trained ad-hoc query encoder, but they are limited by the conversational search data available for training. In this paper, we leverage both rewritten queries and relevance judgments in the conversational search data to train a better query representation model. The key idea is to align the query representation with those of rewritten queries and relevant documents. The proposed model -- Query Representation Alignment Conversational Dense Retriever, QRACDR, is tested on eight datasets, including various settings in conversational search and ad-hoc search. The results demonstrate the strong performance of QRACDR compared with state-of-the-art methods, and confirm the effectiveness of representation alignment.

Damai Dai, Chengqi Deng, Chenggang Zhao et al.

In the era of large language models, Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) is a promising architecture for managing computational costs when scaling up model parameters. However, conventional MoE architectures like GShard, which activate the top-$K$ out of $N$ experts, face challenges in ensuring expert specialization, i.e. each expert acquires non-overlapping and focused knowledge. In response, we propose the DeepSeekMoE architecture towards ultimate expert specialization. It involves two principal strategies: (1) finely segmenting the experts into $mN$ ones and activating $mK$ from them, allowing for a more flexible combination of activated experts; (2) isolating $K_s$ experts as shared ones, aiming at capturing common knowledge and mitigating redundancy in routed experts. Starting from a modest scale with 2B parameters, we demonstrate that DeepSeekMoE 2B achieves comparable performance with GShard 2.9B, which has 1.5 times the expert parameters and computation. In addition, DeepSeekMoE 2B nearly approaches the performance of its dense counterpart with the same number of total parameters, which set the upper bound of MoE models. Subsequently, we scale up DeepSeekMoE to 16B parameters and show that it achieves comparable performance with LLaMA2 7B, with only about 40% of computations. Further, our preliminary efforts to scale up DeepSeekMoE to 145B parameters consistently validate its substantial advantages over the GShard architecture, and show its performance comparable with DeepSeek 67B, using only 28.5% (maybe even 18.2%) of computations.

Yun Ma, Yihong Wu, Pengkun Yang

We consider the problem of approximating a general Gaussian location mixture by finite mixtures. The minimum order of finite mixtures that achieve a prescribed accuracy (measured by various $f$-divergences) is determined within constant factors for the family of mixing distributions with compactly support or appropriate assumptions on the tail probability including subgaussian and subexponential. While the upper bound is achieved using the technique of local moment matching, the lower bound is established by relating the best approximation error to the low-rank approximation of certain trigonometric moment matrices, followed by a refined spectral analysis of their minimum eigenvalue. In the case of Gaussian mixing distributions, this result corrects a previous lower bound in [Allerton Conference 48 (2010) 620-628].

Fengran Mo, Kelong Mao, Yutao Zhu et al.

In conversational search, the user's real search intent for the current turn is dependent on the previous conversation history. It is challenging to determine a good search query from the whole conversation context. To avoid the expensive re-training of the query encoder, most existing methods try to learn a rewriting model to de-contextualize the current query by mimicking the manual query rewriting. However, manually rewritten queries are not always the best search queries. Training a rewriting model on them would limit the model's ability to produce good search queries. Another useful hint is the potential answer to the question. In this paper, we propose ConvGQR, a new framework to reformulate conversational queries based on generative pre-trained language models (PLMs), one for query rewriting and another for generating potential answers. By combining both, ConvGQR can produce better search queries. In addition, to relate query reformulation to retrieval performance, we propose a knowledge infusion mechanism to optimize both query reformulation and retrieval. Extensive experiments on four conversational search datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of ConvGQR.

Haoyu Wang, Yihong Wu, Jiaming Xu et al.

This paper studies the problem of matching two complete graphs with edge weights correlated through latent geometries, extending a recent line of research on random graph matching with independent edge weights to geometric models. Specifically, given a random permutation $π^*$ on $[n]$ and $n$ iid pairs of correlated Gaussian vectors $\{X_{π^*(i)}, Y_i\}$ in $\mathbb{R}^d$ with noise parameter $σ$, the edge weights are given by $A_{ij}=κ(X_i,X_j)$ and $B_{ij}=κ(Y_i,Y_j)$ for some link function $κ$. The goal is to recover the hidden vertex correspondence $π^*$ based on the observation of $A$ and $B$. We focus on the dot-product model with $κ(x,y)=\langle x, y \rangle$ and Euclidean distance model with $κ(x,y)=\|x-y\|^2$, in the low-dimensional regime of $d=o(\log n)$ wherein the underlying geometric structures are most evident. We derive an approximate maximum likelihood estimator, which provably achieves, with high probability, perfect recovery of $π^*$ when $σ=o(n^{-2/d})$ and almost perfect recovery with a vanishing fraction of errors when $σ=o(n^{-1/d})$. Furthermore, these conditions are shown to be information-theoretically optimal even when the latent coordinates $\{X_i\}$ and $\{Y_i\}$ are observed, complementing the recent results of [DCK19] and [KNW22] in geometric models of the planted bipartite matching problem. As a side discovery, we show that the celebrated spectral algorithm of [Ume88] emerges as a further approximation to the maximum likelihood in the geometric model.

Cheng Mao, Yihong Wu, Jiaming Xu et al.

We propose a new procedure for testing whether two networks are edge-correlated through some latent vertex correspondence. The test statistic is based on counting the co-occurrences of signed trees for a family of non-isomorphic trees. When the two networks are Erdős-Rényi random graphs $\mathcal{G}(n,q)$ that are either independent or correlated with correlation coefficient $ρ$, our test runs in $n^{2+o(1)}$ time and succeeds with high probability as $n\to\infty$, provided that $n\min\{q,1-q\} \ge n^{-o(1)}$ and $ρ^2>α\approx 0.338$, where $α$ is Otter's constant so that the number of unlabeled trees with $K$ edges grows as $(1/α)^K$. This significantly improves the prior work in terms of statistical accuracy, running time, and graph sparsity.

Yury Polyanskiy, Yihong Wu

We consider the classical problems of estimating the mean of an $n$-dimensional normally (with identity covariance matrix) or Poisson distributed vector under the squared loss. In a Bayesian setting the optimal estimator is given by the prior-dependent conditional mean. In a frequentist setting various shrinkage methods were developed over the last century. The framework of empirical Bayes, put forth by Robbins (1956), combines Bayesian and frequentist mindsets by postulating that the parameters are independent but with an unknown prior and aims to use a fully data-driven estimator to compete with the Bayesian oracle that knows the true prior. The central figure of merit is the regret, namely, the total excess risk over the Bayes risk in the worst case (over the priors). Although this paradigm was introduced more than 60 years ago, little is known about the asymptotic scaling of the optimal regret in the nonparametric setting. We show that for the Poisson model with compactly supported and subexponential priors, the optimal regret scales as $Θ((\frac{\log n}{\log\log n})^2)$ and $Θ(\log^3 n)$, respectively, both attained by the original estimator of Robbins. For the normal mean model, the regret is shown to be at least $Ω((\frac{\log n}{\log\log n})^2)$ and $Ω(\log^2 n)$ for compactly supported and subgaussian priors, respectively, the former of which resolves the conjecture of Singh (1979) on the impossibility of achieving bounded regret; before this work, the best regret lower bound was $Ω(1)$. In addition to the empirical Bayes setting, these results are shown to hold in the compound setting where the parameters are deterministic. As a side application, the construction in this paper also leads to improved or new lower bounds for density estimation of Gaussian and Poisson mixtures.

Jian Ding, Yihong Wu, Jiaming Xu et al.

We study the problem of reconstructing a perfect matching $M^*$ hidden in a randomly weighted $n\times n$ bipartite graph. The edge set includes every node pair in $M^*$ and each of the $n(n-1)$ node pairs not in $M^*$ independently with probability $d/n$. The weight of each edge $e$ is independently drawn from the distribution $\mathcal{P}$ if $e \in M^*$ and from $\mathcal{Q}$ if $e \notin M^*$. We show that if $\sqrt{d} B(\mathcal{P},\mathcal{Q}) \le 1$, where $B(\mathcal{P},\mathcal{Q})$ stands for the Bhattacharyya coefficient, the reconstruction error (average fraction of misclassified edges) of the maximum likelihood estimator of $M^*$ converges to $0$ as $n\to \infty$. Conversely, if $\sqrt{d} B(\mathcal{P},\mathcal{Q}) \ge 1+ε$ for an arbitrarily small constant $ε>0$, the reconstruction error for any estimator is shown to be bounded away from $0$ under both the sparse and dense model, resolving the conjecture in [Moharrami et al. 2019, Semerjian et al. 2020]. Furthermore, in the special case of complete exponentially weighted graph with $d=n$, $\mathcal{P}=\exp(λ)$, and $\mathcal{Q}=\exp(1/n)$, for which the sharp threshold simplifies to $λ=4$, we prove that when $λ\le 4-ε$, the optimal reconstruction error is $\exp\left( - Θ(1/\sqrtε) \right)$, confirming the conjectured infinite-order phase transition in [Semerjian et al. 2020].

Yihong Wu, Jiaming Xu, Sophie H. Yu

This paper studies the problem of recovering the hidden vertex correspondence between two edge-correlated random graphs. We focus on the Gaussian model where the two graphs are complete graphs with correlated Gaussian weights and the Erdős-Rényi model where the two graphs are subsampled from a common parent Erdős-Rényi graph $\mathcal{G}(n,p)$. For dense graphs with $p=n^{-o(1)}$, we prove that there exists a sharp threshold, above which one can correctly match all but a vanishing fraction of vertices and below which correctly matching any positive fraction is impossible, a phenomenon known as the "all-or-nothing" phase transition. Even more strikingly, in the Gaussian setting, above the threshold all vertices can be exactly matched with high probability. In contrast, for sparse Erdős-Rényi graphs with $p=n^{-Θ(1)}$, we show that the all-or-nothing phenomenon no longer holds and we determine the thresholds up to a constant factor. Along the way, we also derive the sharp threshold for exact recovery, sharpening the existing results in Erdős-Rényi graphs. The proof of the negative results builds upon a tight characterization of the mutual information based on the truncated second-moment computation and an "area theorem" that relates the mutual information to the integral of the reconstruction error. The positive results follows from a tight analysis of the maximum likelihood estimator that takes into account the cycle structure of the induced permutation on the edges.

Cheng Mao, Yihong Wu

In applications such as rank aggregation, mixture models for permutations are frequently used when the population exhibits heterogeneity. In this work, we study the widely used Mallows mixture model. In the high-dimensional setting, we propose a polynomial-time algorithm that learns a Mallows mixture of permutations on $n$ elements with the optimal sample complexity that is proportional to $\log n$, improving upon previous results that scale polynomially with $n$. In the high-noise regime, we characterize the optimal dependency of the sample complexity on the noise parameter. Both objectives are accomplished by first studying demixing permutations under a noiseless query model using groups of pairwise comparisons, which can be viewed as moments of the mixing distribution, and then extending these results to the noisy Mallows model by simulating the noiseless oracle.

Yihong Wu, Jiaming Xu, Sophie H. Yu

We study the problem of detecting the edge correlation between two random graphs with $n$ unlabeled nodes. This is formalized as a hypothesis testing problem, where under the null hypothesis, the two graphs are independently generated; under the alternative, the two graphs are edge-correlated under some latent node correspondence, but have the same marginal distributions as the null. For both Gaussian-weighted complete graphs and dense Erdős-Rényi graphs (with edge probability $n^{-o(1)}$), we determine the sharp threshold at which the optimal testing error probability exhibits a phase transition from zero to one as $n\to \infty$. For sparse Erdős-Rényi graphs with edge probability $n^{-Ω(1)}$, we determine the threshold within a constant factor. The proof of the impossibility results is an application of the conditional second-moment method, where we bound the truncated second moment of the likelihood ratio by carefully conditioning on the typical behavior of the intersection graph (consisting of edges in both observed graphs) and taking into account the cycle structure of the induced random permutation on the edges. Notably, in the sparse regime, this is accomplished by leveraging the pseudoforest structure of subcritical Erdős-Rényi graphs and a careful enumeration of subpseudoforests that can be assembled from short orbits of the edge permutation.

Yury Polyanskiy, Yihong Wu

Introduced by Kiefer and Wolfowitz \cite{KW56}, the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) is a widely used methodology for learning mixture odels and empirical Bayes estimation. Sidestepping the non-convexity in mixture likelihood, the NPMLE estimates the mixing distribution by maximizing the total likelihood over the space of probability measures, which can be viewed as an extreme form of overparameterization. In this paper we discover a surprising property of the NPMLE solution. Consider, for example, a Gaussian mixture model on the real line with a subgaussian mixing distribution. Leveraging complex-analytic techniques, we show that with high probability the NPMLE based on a sample of size $n$ has $O(\log n)$ atoms (mass points), significantly improving the deterministic upper bound of $n$ due to Lindsay \cite{lindsay1983geometry1}. Notably, any such Gaussian mixture is statistically indistinguishable from a finite one with $O(\log n)$ components (and this is tight for certain mixtures). Thus, absent any explicit form of model selection, NPMLE automatically chooses the right model complexity, a property we term \emph{self-regularization}. Extensions to other exponential families are given. As a statistical application, we show that this structural property can be harnessed to bootstrap existing Hellinger risk bound of the (parametric) MLE for finite Gaussian mixtures to the NPMLE for general Gaussian mixtures, recovering a result of Zhang \cite{zhang2009generalized}.

Soham Jana, Yury Polyanskiy, Yihong Wu

We study a prototypical problem in empirical Bayes. Namely, consider a population consisting of $k$ individuals each belonging to one of $k$ types (some types can be empty). Without any structural restrictions, it is impossible to learn the composition of the full population having observed only a small (random) subsample of size $m = o(k)$. Nevertheless, we show that in the sublinear regime of $m =ω(k/\log k)$, it is possible to consistently estimate in total variation the \emph{profile} of the population, defined as the empirical distribution of the sizes of each type, which determines many symmetric properties of the population. We also prove that in the linear regime of $m=c k$ for any constant $c$ the optimal rate is $Θ(1/\log k)$. Our estimator is based on Wolfowitz's minimum distance method, which entails solving a linear program (LP) of size $k$. We show that there is a single infinite-dimensional LP whose value simultaneously characterizes the risk of the minimum distance estimator and certifies its minimax optimality. The sharp convergence rate is obtained by evaluating this LP using complex-analytic techniques.

Natalie Doss, Yihong Wu, Pengkun Yang et al.

This paper studies the optimal rate of estimation in a finite Gaussian location mixture model in high dimensions without separation conditions. We assume that the number of components $k$ is bounded and that the centers lie in a ball of bounded radius, while allowing the dimension $d$ to be as large as the sample size $n$. Extending the one-dimensional result of Heinrich and Kahn \cite{HK2015}, we show that the minimax rate of estimating the mixing distribution in Wasserstein distance is $Θ((d/n)^{1/4} + n^{-1/(4k-2)})$, achieved by an estimator computable in time $O(nd^2+n^{5/4})$. Furthermore, we show that the mixture density can be estimated at the optimal parametric rate $Θ(\sqrt{d/n})$ in Hellinger distance and provide a computationally efficient algorithm to achieve this rate in the special case of $k=2$. Both the theoretical and methodological development rely on a careful application of the method of moments. Central to our results is the observation that the information geometry of finite Gaussian mixtures is characterized by the moment tensors of the mixing distribution, whose low-rank structure can be exploited to obtain a sharp local entropy bound.

Jian Ding, Yihong Wu, Jiaming Xu et al.

Motivated by applications such as discovering strong ties in social networks and assembling genome subsequences in biology, we study the problem of recovering a hidden $2k$-nearest neighbor (NN) graph in an $n$-vertex complete graph, whose edge weights are independent and distributed according to $P_n$ for edges in the hidden $2k$-NN graph and $Q_n$ otherwise. The special case of Bernoulli distributions corresponds to a variant of the Watts-Strogatz small-world graph. We focus on two types of asymptotic recovery guarantees as $n\to \infty$: (1) exact recovery: all edges are classified correctly with probability tending to one; (2) almost exact recovery: the expected number of misclassified edges is $o(nk)$. We show that the maximum likelihood estimator achieves (1) exact recovery for $2 \le k \le n^{o(1)}$ if $ \liminf \frac{2α_n}{\log n}>1$; (2) almost exact recovery for $ 1 \le k \le o\left( \frac{\log n}{\log \log n} \right)$ if $\liminf \frac{kD(P_n||Q_n)}{\log n}>1$, where $α_n \triangleq -2 \log \int \sqrt{d P_n d Q_n}$ is the Rényi divergence of order $\frac{1}{2}$ and $D(P_n||Q_n)$ is the Kullback-Leibler divergence. Under mild distributional assumptions, these conditions are shown to be information-theoretically necessary for any algorithm to succeed. A key challenge in the analysis is the enumeration of $2k$-NN graphs that differ from the hidden one by a given number of edges.

Yihong Wu, Harrison H. Zhou

We analyze the classical EM algorithm for parameter estimation in the symmetric two-component Gaussian mixtures in $d$ dimensions. We show that, even in the absence of any separation between components, provided that the sample size satisfies $n=Ω(d \log^3 d)$, the randomly initialized EM algorithm converges to an estimate in at most $O(\sqrt{n})$ iterations with high probability, which is at most $O((\frac{d \log^3 n}{n})^{1/4})$ in Euclidean distance from the true parameter and within logarithmic factors of the minimax rate of $(\frac{d}{n})^{1/4}$. Both the nonparametric statistical rate and the sublinear convergence rate are direct consequences of the zero Fisher information in the worst case. Refined pointwise guarantees beyond worst-case analysis and convergence to the MLE are also shown under mild conditions. This improves the previous result of Balakrishnan et al \cite{BWY17} which requires strong conditions on both the separation of the components and the quality of the initialization, and that of Daskalakis et al \cite{DTZ17} which requires sample splitting and restarting the EM iteration.

Zhou Fan, Cheng Mao, Yihong Wu et al.

We analyze a new spectral graph matching algorithm, GRAph Matching by Pairwise eigen-Alignments (GRAMPA), for recovering the latent vertex correspondence between two unlabeled, edge-correlated weighted graphs. Extending the exact recovery guarantees established in the companion paper for Gaussian weights, in this work, we prove the universality of these guarantees for a general correlated Wigner model. In particular, for two Erdős-Rényi graphs with edge correlation coefficient $1-σ^2$ and average degree at least $\operatorname{polylog}(n)$, we show that GRAMPA exactly recovers the latent vertex correspondence with high probability when $σ\lesssim 1/\operatorname{polylog}(n)$. Moreover, we establish a similar guarantee for a variant of GRAMPA, corresponding to a tighter quadratic programming relaxation of the quadratic assignment problem. Our analysis exploits a resolvent representation of the GRAMPA similarity matrix and local laws for the resolvents of sparse Wigner matrices.

Zhou Fan, Cheng Mao, Yihong Wu et al.

Graph matching aims at finding the vertex correspondence between two unlabeled graphs that maximizes the total edge weight correlation. This amounts to solving a computationally intractable quadratic assignment problem. In this paper we propose a new spectral method, GRAph Matching by Pairwise eigen-Alignments (GRAMPA). Departing from prior spectral approaches that only compare top eigenvectors, or eigenvectors of the same order, GRAMPA first constructs a similarity matrix as a weighted sum of outer products between all pairs of eigenvectors of the two graphs, with weights given by a Cauchy kernel applied to the separation of the corresponding eigenvalues, then outputs a matching by a simple rounding procedure. The similarity matrix can also be interpreted as the solution to a regularized quadratic programming relaxation of the quadratic assignment problem. For the Gaussian Wigner model in which two complete graphs on $n$ vertices have Gaussian edge weights with correlation coefficient $1-σ^2$, we show that GRAMPA exactly recovers the correct vertex correspondence with high probability when $σ= O(\frac{1}{\log n})$. This matches the state of the art of polynomial-time algorithms, and significantly improves over existing spectral methods which require $σ$ to be polynomially small in $n$. The superiority of GRAMPA is also demonstrated on a variety of synthetic and real datasets, in terms of both statistical accuracy and computational efficiency. Universality results, including similar guarantees for dense and sparse Erdős-Rényi graphs, are deferred to the companion paper.

Yi Hao, Alon Orlitsky, Ananda T. Suresh et al.

Estimating properties of discrete distributions is a fundamental problem in statistical learning. We design the first unified, linear-time, competitive, property estimator that for a wide class of properties and for all underlying distributions uses just $2n$ samples to achieve the performance attained by the empirical estimator with $n\sqrt{\log n}$ samples. This provides off-the-shelf, distribution-independent, "amplification" of the amount of data available relative to common-practice estimators. We illustrate the estimator's practical advantages by comparing it to existing estimators for a wide variety of properties and distributions. In most cases, its performance with $n$ samples is even as good as that of the empirical estimator with $n\log n$ samples, and for essentially all properties, its performance is comparable to that of the best existing estimator designed specifically for that property.

Jian Ding, Zongming Ma, Yihong Wu et al.

Random graph matching refers to recovering the underlying vertex correspondence between two random graphs with correlated edges; a prominent example is when the two random graphs are given by Erdős-Rényi graphs $G(n,\frac{d}{n})$. This can be viewed as an average-case and noisy version of the graph isomorphism problem. Under this model, the maximum likelihood estimator is equivalent to solving the intractable quadratic assignment problem. This work develops an $\tilde{O}(n d^2+n^2)$-time algorithm which perfectly recovers the true vertex correspondence with high probability, provided that the average degree is at least $d = Ω(\log^2 n)$ and the two graphs differ by at most $δ= O( \log^{-2}(n) )$ fraction of edges. For dense graphs and sparse graphs, this can be improved to $δ= O( \log^{-2/3}(n) )$ and $δ= O( \log^{-2}(d) )$ respectively, both in polynomial time. The methodology is based on appropriately chosen distance statistics of the degree profiles (empirical distribution of the degrees of neighbors). Before this work, the best known result achieves $δ=O(1)$ and $n^{o(1)} \leq d \leq n^c$ for some constant $c$ with an $n^{O(\log n)}$-time algorithm \cite{barak2018nearly} and $δ=\tilde O((d/n)^4)$ and $d = \tildeΩ(n^{4/5})$ with a polynomial-time algorithm \cite{dai2018performance}.

Vivek Bagaria, Jian Ding, David Tse et al.

We introduce the problem of hidden Hamiltonian cycle recovery, where there is an unknown Hamiltonian cycle in an $n$-vertex complete graph that needs to be inferred from noisy edge measurements. The measurements are independent and distributed according to $\calP_n$ for edges in the cycle and $\calQ_n$ otherwise. This formulation is motivated by a problem in genome assembly, where the goal is to order a set of contigs (genome subsequences) according to their positions on the genome using long-range linking measurements between the contigs. Computing the maximum likelihood estimate in this model reduces to a Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP). Despite the NP-hardness of TSP, we show that a simple linear programming (LP) relaxation, namely the fractional $2$-factor (F2F) LP, recovers the hidden Hamiltonian cycle with high probability as $n \to \infty$ provided that $α_n - \log n \to \infty$, where $α_n \triangleq -2 \log \int \sqrt{d P_n d Q_n}$ is the Rényi divergence of order $\frac{1}{2}$. This condition is information-theoretically optimal in the sense that, under mild distributional assumptions, $α_n \geq (1+o(1)) \log n$ is necessary for any algorithm to succeed regardless of the computational cost. Departing from the usual proof techniques based on dual witness construction, the analysis relies on the combinatorial characterization (in particular, the half-integrality) of the extreme points of the F2F polytope. Represented as bicolored multi-graphs, these extreme points are further decomposed into simpler "blossom-type" structures for the large deviation analysis and counting arguments. Evaluation of the algorithm on real data shows improvements over existing approaches.

Yanjun Han, Jiantao Jiao, Chuan-Zheng Lee et al.

Estimating the entropy based on data is one of the prototypical problems in distribution property testing and estimation. For estimating the Shannon entropy of a distribution on $S$ elements with independent samples, [Paninski2004] showed that the sample complexity is sublinear in $S$, and [Valiant--Valiant2011] showed that consistent estimation of Shannon entropy is possible if and only if the sample size $n$ far exceeds $\frac{S}{\log S}$. In this paper we consider the problem of estimating the entropy rate of a stationary reversible Markov chain with $S$ states from a sample path of $n$ observations. We show that: (1) As long as the Markov chain mixes not too slowly, i.e., the relaxation time is at most $O(\frac{S}{\ln^3 S})$, consistent estimation is achievable when $n \gg \frac{S^2}{\log S}$. (2) As long as the Markov chain has some slight dependency, i.e., the relaxation time is at least $1+Ω(\frac{\ln^2 S}{\sqrt{S}})$, consistent estimation is impossible when $n \lesssim \frac{S^2}{\log S}$. Under both assumptions, the optimal estimation accuracy is shown to be $Θ(\frac{S^2}{n \log S})$. In comparison, the empirical entropy rate requires at least $Ω(S^2)$ samples to be consistent, even when the Markov chain is memoryless. In addition to synthetic experiments, we also apply the estimators that achieve the optimal sample complexity to estimate the entropy rate of the English language in the Penn Treebank and the Google One Billion Words corpora, which provides a natural benchmark for language modeling and relates it directly to the widely used perplexity measure.

Jason M. Klusowski, Yihong Wu

Applied researchers often construct a network from a random sample of nodes in order to infer properties of the parent network. Two of the most widely used sampling schemes are subgraph sampling, where we sample each vertex independently with probability $p$ and observe the subgraph induced by the sampled vertices, and neighborhood sampling, where we additionally observe the edges between the sampled vertices and their neighbors. In this paper, we study the problem of estimating the number of motifs as induced subgraphs under both models from a statistical perspective. We show that: for any connected $h$ on $k$ vertices, to estimate $s=\mathsf{s}(h,G)$, the number of copies of $h$ in the parent graph $G$ of maximum degree $d$, with a multiplicative error of $ε$, (a) For subgraph sampling, the optimal sampling ratio $p$ is $Θ_{k}(\max\{ (sε^2)^{-\frac{1}{k}}, \; \frac{d^{k-1}}{sε^{2}} \})$, achieved by Horvitz-Thompson type of estimators. (b) For neighborhood sampling, we propose a family of estimators, encompassing and outperforming the Horvitz-Thompson estimator and achieving the sampling ratio $O_{k}(\min\{ (\frac{d}{sε^2})^{\frac{1}{k-1}}, \; \sqrt{\frac{d^{k-2}}{sε^2}}\})$. This is shown to be optimal for all motifs with at most $4$ vertices and cliques of all sizes. The matching minimax lower bounds are established using certain algebraic properties of subgraph counts. These results quantify how much more informative neighborhood sampling is than subgraph sampling, as empirically verified by experiments on both synthetic and real-world data. We also address the issue of adaptation to the unknown maximum degree, and study specific problems for parent graphs with additional structures, e.g., trees or planar graphs.

Jason M. Klusowski, Yihong Wu

Learning properties of large graphs from samples has been an important problem in statistical network analysis since the early work of Goodman \cite{Goodman1949} and Frank \cite{Frank1978}. We revisit a problem formulated by Frank \cite{Frank1978} of estimating the number of connected components in a large graph based on the subgraph sampling model, in which we randomly sample a subset of the vertices and observe the induced subgraph. The key question is whether accurate estimation is achievable in the \emph{sublinear} regime where only a vanishing fraction of the vertices are sampled. We show that it is impossible if the parent graph is allowed to contain high-degree vertices or long induced cycles. For the class of chordal graphs, where induced cycles of length four or above are forbidden, we characterize the optimal sample complexity within constant factors and construct linear-time estimators that provably achieve these bounds. This significantly expands the scope of previous results which have focused on unbiased estimators and special classes of graphs such as forests or cliques. Both the construction and the analysis of the proposed methodology rely on combinatorial properties of chordal graphs and identities of induced subgraph counts. They, in turn, also play a key role in proving minimax lower bounds based on construction of random instances of graphs with matching structures of small subgraphs.

Yury Polyanskiy, Ananda Theertha Suresh, Yihong Wu

The problem of population recovery refers to estimating a distribution based on incomplete or corrupted samples. Consider a random poll of sample size $n$ conducted on a population of individuals, where each pollee is asked to answer $d$ binary questions. We consider one of the two polling impediments: (a) in lossy population recovery, a pollee may skip each question with probability $ε$, (b) in noisy population recovery, a pollee may lie on each question with probability $ε$. Given $n$ lossy or noisy samples, the goal is to estimate the probabilities of all $2^d$ binary vectors simultaneously within accuracy $δ$ with high probability. This paper settles the sample complexity of population recovery. For lossy model, the optimal sample complexity is $\tildeΘ(δ^{-2\max\{\fracε{1-ε},1\}})$, improving the state of the art by Moitra and Saks in several ways: a lower bound is established, the upper bound is improved and the result depends at most on the logarithm of the dimension. Surprisingly, the sample complexity undergoes a phase transition from parametric to nonparametric rate when $ε$ exceeds $1/2$. For noisy population recovery, the sharp sample complexity turns out to be more sensitive to dimension and scales as $\exp(Θ(d^{1/3} \log^{2/3}(1/δ)))$ except for the trivial cases of $ε=0,1/2$ or $1$. For both models, our estimators simply compute the empirical mean of a certain function, which is found by pre-solving a linear program (LP). Curiously, the dual LP can be understood as Le Cam's method for lower-bounding the minimax risk, thus establishing the statistical optimality of the proposed estimators. The value of the LP is determined by complex-analytic methods.

Bruce Hajek, Yihong Wu, Jiaming Xu

We study a semidefinite programming (SDP) relaxation of the maximum likelihood estimation for exactly recovering a hidden community of cardinality $K$ from an $n \times n$ symmetric data matrix $A$, where for distinct indices $i,j$, $A_{ij} \sim P$ if $i, j$ are both in the community and $A_{ij} \sim Q$ otherwise, for two known probability distributions $P$ and $Q$. We identify a sufficient condition and a necessary condition for the success of SDP for the general model. For both the Bernoulli case ($P={\rm Bern}(p)$ and $Q={\rm Bern}(q)$ with $p>q$) and the Gaussian case ($P=\mathcal{N}(μ,1)$ and $Q=\mathcal{N}(0,1)$ with $μ>0$), which correspond to the problem of planted dense subgraph recovery and submatrix localization respectively, the general results lead to the following findings: (1) If $K=ω( n /\log n)$, SDP attains the information-theoretic recovery limits with sharp constants; (2) If $K=Θ(n/\log n)$, SDP is order-wise optimal, but strictly suboptimal by a constant factor; (3) If $K=o(n/\log n)$ and $K \to \infty$, SDP is order-wise suboptimal. The same critical scaling for $K$ is found to hold, up to constant factors, for the performance of SDP on the stochastic block model of $n$ vertices partitioned into multiple communities of equal size $K$. A key ingredient in the proof of the necessary condition is a construction of a primal feasible solution based on random perturbation of the true cluster matrix.

Alon Orlitsky, Ananda Theertha Suresh, Yihong Wu

Estimating the number of unseen species is an important problem in many scientific endeavors. Its most popular formulation, introduced by Fisher, uses $n$ samples to predict the number $U$ of hitherto unseen species that would be observed if $t\cdot n$ new samples were collected. Of considerable interest is the largest ratio $t$ between the number of new and existing samples for which $U$ can be accurately predicted. In seminal works, Good and Toulmin constructed an intriguing estimator that predicts $U$ for all $t\le 1$, thereby showing that the number of species can be estimated for a population twice as large as that observed. Subsequently Efron and Thisted obtained a modified estimator that empirically predicts $U$ even for some $t>1$, but without provable guarantees. We derive a class of estimators that $\textit{provably}$ predict $U$ not just for constant $t>1$, but all the way up to $t$ proportional to $\log n$. This shows that the number of species can be estimated for a population $\log n$ times larger than that observed, a factor that grows arbitrarily large as $n$ increases. We also show that this range is the best possible and that the estimators' mean-square error is optimal up to constants for any $t$. Our approach yields the first provable guarantee for the Efron-Thisted estimator and, in addition, a variant which achieves stronger theoretical and experimental performance than existing methodologies on a variety of synthetic and real datasets. The estimators we derive are simple linear estimators that are computable in time proportional to $n$. The performance guarantees hold uniformly for all distributions, and apply to all four standard sampling models commonly used across various scientific disciplines: multinomial, Poisson, hypergeometric, and Bernoulli product.

Bruce Hajek, Yihong Wu, Jiaming Xu

The principal submatrix localization problem deals with recovering a $K\times K$ principal submatrix of elevated mean $μ$ in a large $n\times n$ symmetric matrix subject to additive standard Gaussian noise. This problem serves as a prototypical example for community detection, in which the community corresponds to the support of the submatrix. The main result of this paper is that in the regime $Ω(\sqrt{n}) \leq K \leq o(n)$, the support of the submatrix can be weakly recovered (with $o(K)$ misclassification errors on average) by an optimized message passing algorithm if $λ= μ^2K^2/n$, the signal-to-noise ratio, exceeds $1/e$. This extends a result by Deshpande and Montanari previously obtained for $K=Θ(\sqrt{n}).$ In addition, the algorithm can be extended to provide exact recovery whenever information-theoretically possible and achieve the information limit of exact recovery as long as $K \geq \frac{n}{\log n} (\frac{1}{8e} + o(1))$. The total running time of the algorithm is $O(n^2\log n)$. Another version of the submatrix localization problem, known as noisy biclustering, aims to recover a $K_1\times K_2$ submatrix of elevated mean $μ$ in a large $n_1\times n_2$ Gaussian matrix. The optimized message passing algorithm and its analysis are adapted to the bicluster problem assuming $Ω(\sqrt{n_i}) \leq K_i \leq o(n_i)$ and $K_1\asymp K_2.$ A sharp information-theoretic condition for the weak recovery of both clusters is also identified.

Bruce Hajek, Yihong Wu, Jiaming Xu

Community detection is considered for a stochastic block model graph of n vertices, with K vertices in the planted community, edge probability p for pairs of vertices both in the community, and edge probability q for other pairs of vertices. The main focus of the paper is on weak recovery of the community based on the graph G, with o(K) misclassified vertices on average, in the sublinear regime $n^{1-o(1)} \leq K \leq o(n).$ A critical parameter is the effective signal-to-noise ratio $λ=K^2(p-q)^2/((n-K)q)$, with $λ=1$ corresponding to the Kesten-Stigum threshold. We show that a belief propagation algorithm achieves weak recovery if $λ>1/e$, beyond the Kesten-Stigum threshold by a factor of $1/e.$ The belief propagation algorithm only needs to run for $\log^\ast n+O(1) $ iterations, with the total time complexity $O(|E| \log^*n)$, where $\log^*n$ is the iterated logarithm of $n.$ Conversely, if $λ\leq 1/e$, no local algorithm can asymptotically outperform trivial random guessing. Furthermore, a linear message-passing algorithm that corresponds to applying power iteration to the non-backtracking matrix of the graph is shown to attain weak recovery if and only if $λ>1$. In addition, the belief propagation algorithm can be combined with a linear-time voting procedure to achieve the information limit of exact recovery (correctly classify all vertices with high probability) for all $K \ge \frac{n}{\log n} \left( ρ_{\rm BP} +o(1) \right),$ where $ρ_{\rm BP}$ is a function of $p/q$.

Bruce Hajek, Yihong Wu, Jiaming Xu

We study the problem of recovering a hidden community of cardinality $K$ from an $n \times n$ symmetric data matrix $A$, where for distinct indices $i,j$, $A_{ij} \sim P$ if $i, j$ both belong to the community and $A_{ij} \sim Q$ otherwise, for two known probability distributions $P$ and $Q$ depending on $n$. If $P={\rm Bern}(p)$ and $Q={\rm Bern}(q)$ with $p>q$, it reduces to the problem of finding a densely-connected $K$-subgraph planted in a large Erdös-Rényi graph; if $P=\mathcal{N}(μ,1)$ and $Q=\mathcal{N}(0,1)$ with $μ>0$, it corresponds to the problem of locating a $K \times K$ principal submatrix of elevated means in a large Gaussian random matrix. We focus on two types of asymptotic recovery guarantees as $n \to \infty$: (1) weak recovery: expected number of classification errors is $o(K)$; (2) exact recovery: probability of classifying all indices correctly converges to one. Under mild assumptions on $P$ and $Q$, and allowing the community size to scale sublinearly with $n$, we derive a set of sufficient conditions and a set of necessary conditions for recovery, which are asymptotically tight with sharp constants. The results hold in particular for the Gaussian case, and for the case of bounded log likelihood ratio, including the Bernoulli case whenever $\frac{p}{q}$ and $\frac{1-p}{1-q}$ are bounded away from zero and infinity. An important algorithmic implication is that, whenever exact recovery is information theoretically possible, any algorithm that provides weak recovery when the community size is concentrated near $K$ can be upgraded to achieve exact recovery in linear additional time by a simple voting procedure.

Bruce Hajek, Yihong Wu, Jiaming Xu

Resolving a conjecture of Abbe, Bandeira and Hall, the authors have recently shown that the semidefinite programming (SDP) relaxation of the maximum likelihood estimator achieves the sharp threshold for exactly recovering the community structure under the binary stochastic block model of two equal-sized clusters. The same was shown for the case of a single cluster and outliers. Extending the proof techniques, in this paper it is shown that SDP relaxations also achieve the sharp recovery threshold in the following cases: (1) Binary stochastic block model with two clusters of sizes proportional to network size but not necessarily equal; (2) Stochastic block model with a fixed number of equal-sized clusters; (3) Binary censored block model with the background graph being Erdős-Rényi. Furthermore, a sufficient condition is given for an SDP procedure to achieve exact recovery for the general case of a fixed number of clusters plus outliers. These results demonstrate the versatility of SDP relaxation as a simple, general purpose, computationally feasible methodology for community detection.

Bruce Hajek, Yihong Wu, Jiaming Xu

The binary symmetric stochastic block model deals with a random graph of $n$ vertices partitioned into two equal-sized clusters, such that each pair of vertices is connected independently with probability $p$ within clusters and $q$ across clusters. In the asymptotic regime of $p=a \log n/n$ and $q=b \log n/n$ for fixed $a,b$ and $n \to \infty$, we show that the semidefinite programming relaxation of the maximum likelihood estimator achieves the optimal threshold for exactly recovering the partition from the graph with probability tending to one, resolving a conjecture of Abbe et al. \cite{Abbe14}. Furthermore, we show that the semidefinite programming relaxation also achieves the optimal recovery threshold in the planted dense subgraph model containing a single cluster of size proportional to $n$.

Bruce Hajek, Yihong Wu, Jiaming Xu

This paper studies the problem of detecting the presence of a small dense community planted in a large Erdős-Rényi random graph $\mathcal{G}(N,q)$, where the edge probability within the community exceeds $q$ by a constant factor. Assuming the hardness of the planted clique detection problem, we show that the computational complexity of detecting the community exhibits the following phase transition phenomenon: As the graph size $N$ grows and the graph becomes sparser according to $q=N^{-α}$, there exists a critical value of $α= \frac{2}{3}$, below which there exists a computationally intensive procedure that can detect far smaller communities than any computationally efficient procedure, and above which a linear-time procedure is statistically optimal. The results also lead to the average-case hardness results for recovering the dense community and approximating the densest $K$-subgraph.