Kun Zhang

Erdun Gao, Ignavier Ng, Mingming Gong et al.

State-of-the-art causal discovery methods usually assume that the observational data is complete. However, the missing data problem is pervasive in many practical scenarios such as clinical trials, economics, and biology. One straightforward way to address the missing data problem is first to impute the data using off-the-shelf imputation methods and then apply existing causal discovery methods. However, such a two-step method may suffer from suboptimality, as the imputation algorithm may introduce bias for modeling the underlying data distribution. In this paper, we develop a general method, which we call MissDAG, to perform causal discovery from data with incomplete observations. Focusing mainly on the assumptions of ignorable missingness and the identifiable additive noise models (ANMs), MissDAG maximizes the expected likelihood of the visible part of observations under the expectation-maximization (EM) framework. In the E-step, in cases where computing the posterior distributions of parameters in closed-form is not feasible, Monte Carlo EM is leveraged to approximate the likelihood. In the M-step, MissDAG leverages the density transformation to model the noise distributions with simpler and specific formulations by virtue of the ANMs and uses a likelihood-based causal discovery algorithm with directed acyclic graph constraint. We demonstrate the flexibility of MissDAG for incorporating various causal discovery algorithms and its efficacy through extensive simulations and real data experiments.

Boyang Sun, Ignavier Ng, Guangyi Chen et al.

Identifying the causal relations between interested variables plays a pivotal role in representation learning as it provides deep insights into the dataset. Identifiability, as the central theme of this approach, normally hinges on leveraging data from multiple distributions (intervention, distribution shift, time series, etc.). Despite the exciting development in this field, a practical but often overlooked problem is: what if those distribution shifts happen sequentially? In contrast, any intelligence possesses the capacity to abstract and refine learned knowledge sequentially -- lifelong learning. In this paper, with a particular focus on the nonlinear independent component analysis (ICA) framework, we move one step forward toward the question of enabling models to learn meaningful (identifiable) representations in a sequential manner, termed continual causal representation learning. We theoretically demonstrate that model identifiability progresses from a subspace level to a component-wise level as the number of distributions increases. Empirically, we show that our method achieves performance comparable to nonlinear ICA methods trained jointly on multiple offline distributions and, surprisingly, the incoming new distribution does not necessarily benefit the identification of all latent variables.

Kun Zhang, Heng Peng, Laiwan Chan et al.

Model selection based on classical information criteria, such as BIC, is generally computationally demanding, but its properties are well studied. On the other hand, model selection based on parameter shrinkage by $\ell_1$-type penalties is computationally efficient. In this paper we make an attempt to combine their strengths, and propose a simple approach that penalizes the likelihood with data-dependent $\ell_1$ penalties as in adaptive Lasso and exploits a fixed penalization parameter. Even for finite samples, its model selection results approximately coincide with those based on information criteria; in particular, we show that in some special cases, this approach and the corresponding information criterion produce exactly the same model. One can also consider this approach as a way to directly determine the penalization parameter in adaptive Lasso to achieve information criteria-like model selection. As extensions, we apply this idea to complex models including Gaussian mixture model and mixture of factor analyzers, whose model selection is traditionally difficult to do; by adopting suitable penalties, we provide continuous approximators to the corresponding information criteria, which are easy to optimize and enable efficient model selection.