Xiao Kong

Tianyu Su, Zhiqiang Zou, Ali Luo et al.

Stellar flare forecasting, a critical research frontier in astronomy, offers profound insights into stellar activity. However, the field is constrained by both the sparsity of recorded flare events and the absence of domain-specific large-scale predictive models. To address these challenges, this study introduces StellarF (Stellar Flare Forecasting), a novel large model that leverages Low-Rank (LoRA) and Adapter techniques to parameter-efficient learning for stellar flare forecasting. At its core, StellarF integrates an flare statistical information module with a historical flare record module, enabling multi-scale pattern recognition from observational data. Extensive experiments on our self-constructed datasets (derived from Kepler and TESS light curves) demonstrate that StellarF achieves state-of-the-art performance compared to existing methods. The proposed prediction paradigm establishes a novel methodological framework for advancing astrophysical research and cross-disciplinary applications.

Bingke Zhu, Xiaoxiao Wang, Minghui Jia et al.

Stellar flare events are critical observational samples for astronomical research; however, recorded flare events remain limited. Stellar flare forecasting can provide additional flare event samples to support research efforts. Despite this potential, no specialized models for stellar flare forecasting have been proposed to date. In this paper, we present extensive experimental evidence demonstrating that both stellar physical properties and historical flare records are valuable inputs for flare forecasting tasks. We then introduce FLARE (Forecasting Light-curve-based Astronomical Records via features Ensemble), the first-of-its-kind large model specifically designed for stellar flare forecasting. FLARE integrates stellar physical properties and historical flare records through a novel Soft Prompt Module and Residual Record Fusion Module. Our experiments on the publicly available Kepler light curve dataset demonstrate that FLARE achieves superior performance compared to other methods across all evaluation metrics. Finally, we validate the forecast capability of our model through a comprehensive case study.