Ismail Vurankaya

I. Arda Vurankaya, Ufuk Topcu

Bayesian persuasion studies how an informed sender can influence the behavior of a receiver through strategic information disclosure. Standard models assume the sender is the receiver's only source of information, yet in many applications receivers also consult external sources the sender can neither observe nor control. We study an online Bayesian persuasion problem in which a binary-action receiver has access to a fixed signaling scheme that is unknown to the sender. Over $T$ rounds, the sender commits to a signaling scheme and sends a signal; the receiver combines it with its private signal and acts, while the sender observes only the action. We design a learning algorithm that achieves regret $\widetilde{O}(T^{3/4})$ relative to the optimal scheme of a sender who knows the private signaling scheme of the receiver, with polynomial dependence on the sizes of the state space and the receiver's signal alphabet. Our key insight is reducing the problem of learning the exponentially large belief-space partitioning induced by the private scheme to a one-dimensional change-point detection problem.

I. Arda Vurankaya, Mustafa O. Karabag, Wesley A. Suttle et al.

We consider a multi-armed bandit setting in which each arm has a public and a private reward distribution. An observer expects an agent to follow Thompson Sampling according to the public rewards, however, the deceptive agent aims to quickly identify the best private arm without being noticed. The observer can observe the public rewards and the pulled arms, but not the private rewards. The agent, on the other hand, observes both the public and private rewards. We formalize detectability as a stepwise Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence constraint between the actual pull probabilities used by the agent and the anticipated pull probabilities by the observer. We model successful pulling of public suboptimal arms as a % Bernoulli process where the success probability decreases with each successful pull, and show these pulls can happen at most at a $Θ(\sqrt{T}) $ rate under the KL constraint. We then formulate a maximin problem based on public and private means, whose solution characterizes the optimal error exponent for best private arm identification. We finally propose an algorithm inspired by top-two algorithms. This algorithm naturally adapts its exploration according to the hardness of pulling arms based on the public suboptimality gaps. We provide numerical examples illustrating the $Θ(\sqrt{T}) $ rate and the behavior of the proposed algorithm.