Yulin Huang

Jiaheng Yin, Zhengxin Shi, Jianshen Zhang et al.

In recent years, numerous Transformer-based models have been applied to long-term time-series forecasting (LTSF) tasks. However, recent studies with linear models have questioned their effectiveness, demonstrating that simple linear layers can outperform sophisticated Transformer-based models. In this work, we review and categorize existing Transformer-based models into two main types: (1) modifications to the model structure and (2) modifications to the input data. The former offers scalability but falls short in capturing inter-sequential information, while the latter preprocesses time-series data but is challenging to use as a scalable module. We propose $\textbf{sTransformer}$, which introduces the Sequence and Temporal Convolutional Network (STCN) to fully capture both sequential and temporal information. Additionally, we introduce a Sequence-guided Mask Attention mechanism to capture global feature information. Our approach ensures the capture of inter-sequential information while maintaining module scalability. We compare our model with linear models and existing forecasting models on long-term time-series forecasting, achieving new state-of-the-art results. We also conducted experiments on other time-series tasks, achieving strong performance. These demonstrate that Transformer-based structures remain effective and our model can serve as a viable baseline for time-series tasks.

Yongzhi Qi, Hao Hu, Dazhou Lei et al.

Time series neural networks perform exceptionally well in real-world applications but encounter challenges such as limited scalability, poor generalization, and suboptimal zero-shot performance. Inspired by large language models, there is interest in developing large time series models (LTM) to address these issues. However, current methods struggle with training complexity, adapting human feedback, and achieving high predictive accuracy. We introduce TimeHF, a novel pipeline for creating LTMs with 6 billion parameters, incorporating human feedback. We use patch convolutional embedding to capture long time series information and design a human feedback mechanism called time-series policy optimization. Deployed in JD.com's supply chain, TimeHF handles automated replenishment for over 20,000 products, improving prediction accuracy by 33.21% over existing methods. This work advances LTM technology and shows significant industrial benefits.