Hannah State-Davey

R. O. Lane, W. J. Holmes, C. J. Taylor et al.

This paper proposes an approach for automatically analysing and tracking statements in material gathered online and detecting whether the authors of the statements are likely to be involved in extremism or terrorism. The proposed system comprises: online collation of statements that are then encoded in a form amenable to machine learning (ML), an ML component to classify the encoded text, a tracker, and a visualisation system for analysis of results. The detection and tracking concept has been tested using quotes made by terrorists, extremists, campaigners, and politicians, obtained from wikiquote.org. A set of features was extracted for each quote using the state-of-the-art Universal Sentence Encoder (Cer et al. 2018), which produces 512-dimensional vectors. The data were used to train and test a support vector machine (SVM) classifier using 10-fold cross-validation. The system was able to correctly detect intentions and attitudes associated with extremism 81% of the time and terrorism 97% of the time, using a dataset of 839 quotes. This accuracy was higher than that which was achieved for a simple baseline system based on n-gram text features. Tracking techniques were also used to perform a temporal analysis of the data, with each quote considered to be a noisy measurement of a person's state of mind. It was demonstrated that the tracking algorithms were able to detect both trends over time and sharp changes in attitude that could be attributed to major events.

Richard Lane, Hannah State-Davey, Claire Taylor et al.

Behavioural analytics provides insights into individual and crowd behaviour, enabling analysis of what previously happened and predictions for how people may be likely to act in the future. In defence and security, this analysis allows organisations to achieve tactical and strategic advantage through influence campaigns, a key counterpart to physical activities. Before action can be taken, online and real-world behaviour must be analysed to determine the level of threat. Huge data volumes mean that automated processes are required to attain an accurate understanding of risk. We describe the mathematical basis of technologies to analyse quotes in multiple languages. These include a Bayesian network to understand behavioural factors, state estimation algorithms for time series analysis, and machine learning algorithms for classification. We present results from studies of quotes in English, French, and Arabic, from anti-violence campaigners, politicians, extremists, and terrorists. The algorithms correctly identify extreme statements; and analysis at individual, group, and population levels detects both trends over time and sharp changes attributed to major geopolitical events. Group analysis shows that additional population characteristics can be determined, such as polarisation over particular issues and large-scale shifts in attitude. Finally, MP voting behaviour and statements from publicly-available records are analysed to determine the level of correlation between what people say and what they do.