John Bencina

2papers

2 Papers

6.3LGAug 10
From Prediction to Incrementality: Causal Optimization for Large-Scale Targeting and Recommendation

Changshuai Wei, John Bencina, Phuc Nguyen et al.

Large-scale targeting and recommendation systems are typically built around predictive scores fed into heuristic or local allocation. When the business goal is incremental impact, as in marketing campaigns, incentives, and notifications, this paradigm systematically misallocates resources toward users who would have acted anyway. We present a decision-centric framework that instead optimizes causal effects under global constraints, aligning three components under a single objective: a causal neural network with a Transformer backbone for individual treatment-effect estimation, a Bayesian neural-bandit layer for uncertainty-aware exploration, and a dual-based large-scale linear-programming layer for constrained allocation. The framework also supports sequential context and multi-outcome, attribute-conditioned scoring through a Transformer encoder and outcome embeddings. We evaluate it with offline simulations on a public bandit dataset, targeted architectural ablations, and an online A/B test on LinkedIn Feed marketing traffic. We also distill production lessons on causal training-data construction and cost and delivery control, which were critical to successful deployment. The end-to-end treatment policy delivered a statistically significant $+7.20\%$ lift in the primary long-term-value metric, demonstrating the feasibility of production-scale causal optimization under business constraints.

9.4LGMay 14, 2025
LiDDA: Data Driven Attribution at LinkedIn

John Bencina, Erkut Aykutlug, Yue Chen et al.

Data Driven Attribution, which assigns conversion credits to marketing interactions based on causal patterns learned from data, is the foundation of modern marketing intelligence and vital to any marketing businesses and advertising platform. In this paper, we introduce a unified transformer-based attribution approach that can handle member-level data, aggregate-level data, and integration of external macro factors. We detail the large scale implementation of the approach at LinkedIn, showcasing significant impact. We also share learning and insights that are broadly applicable to the marketing and ad tech fields.