Real Options for Project Schedules (ROPS)
For project managers, this provides a method to optimize schedules and assess risk, but the approach is incremental as it combines existing techniques.
The paper introduces ROPS, a framework with three recursive shells for optimizing project schedules under uncertainty, using Adaptive Simulated Annealing and PATHTREE for options on schedules, and applies TRD algorithms for relative risk analysis among projects.
Real Options for Project Schedules (ROPS) has three recursive sampling/optimization shells. An outer Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA) optimization shell optimizes parameters of strategic Plans containing multiple Projects containing ordered Tasks. A middle shell samples probability distributions of durations of Tasks. An inner shell samples probability distributions of costs of Tasks. PATHTREE is used to develop options on schedules.. Algorithms used for Trading in Risk Dimensions (TRD) are applied to develop a relative risk analysis among projects.