Modeling Weather Conditions Consequences on Road Trafficking Behaviors
This work addresses traffic management challenges for urban planners and transportation systems by offering a domain-specific incremental improvement in modeling weather impacts on road behavior.
The paper tackles the problem of how adverse weather conditions affect traffic flow dynamics by developing a thresholded linear model based on MARS that adapts locally to road networks, providing accurate and unbiased forecasted speed using live or short-term weather data.
We provide a model to understand how adverse weather conditions modify traffic flow dynamic. We first prove that the microscopic Free Flow Speed of the vehicles is changed and then provide a rule to model this change. For this, we consider a thresholded linear model, corresponding to an application of a MARS model to road trafficking. This model adapts itself locally to the whole road network and provides accurate unbiased forecasted speed using live or short term forecasted weather data information.