Numerical weather prediction or stochastic modeling: an objective criterion of choice for the global radiation forecasting
This work addresses the selection of forecasting methods for global radiation, which is incremental as it builds on existing NWP and stochastic approaches without introducing a new paradigm.
The authors tackled the problem of choosing between numerical weather prediction (NWP) and stochastic models for global radiation forecasting by proposing a parameter based on mutual information to objectively determine the more relevant method, but no concrete results or numbers are provided.
Numerous methods exist and were developed for global radiation forecasting. The two most popular types are the numerical weather predictions (NWP) and the predictions using stochastic approaches. We propose to compute a parameter noted constructed in part from the mutual information which is a quantity that measures the mutual dependence of two variables. Both of these are calculated with the objective to establish the more relevant method between NWP and stochastic models concerning the current problem.