Optimistic Risk Perception in the Temporal Difference error Explains the Relation between Risk-taking, Gambling, Sensation-seeking and Low Fear
This research addresses risk-taking behaviors in psychology and neuroscience, with potential applications in treatment and environmental design, but it is incremental as it builds on existing computational models.
The study used Temporal Difference Reinforcement Learning to investigate how optimism in risk perception affects risk-taking behaviors, finding that overly optimistic perception leads to persistent gambling and high sensation-seeking, while healthy perception does not.
Understanding the affective, cognitive and behavioural processes involved in risk taking is essential for treatment and for setting environmental conditions to limit damage. Using Temporal Difference Reinforcement Learning (TDRL) we computationally investigated the effect of optimism in risk perception in a variety of goal-oriented tasks. Optimism in risk perception was studied by varying the calculation of the Temporal Difference error, i.e., delta, in three ways: realistic (stochastically correct), optimistic (assuming action control), and overly optimistic (assuming outcome control). We show that for the gambling task individuals with 'healthy' perception of control, i.e., action optimism, do not develop gambling behaviour while individuals with 'unhealthy' perception of control, i.e., outcome optimism, do. We show that high intensity of sensations and low levels of fear co-occur due to optimistic risk perception. We found that overly optimistic risk perception (outcome optimism) results in risk taking and in persistent gambling behaviour in addition to high intensity of sensations. We discuss how our results replicate risk-taking related phenomena.