Review of state-of-the-arts in artificial intelligence with application to AI safety problem
It addresses the problem of forecasting AI progress for researchers and policymakers, but is incremental as a review.
The paper reviews current AI state-of-the-arts to estimate timelines for human-level AI development, noting predictions vary widely from pessimistic to optimistic, and discusses AI safety implications.
Here, I review current state-of-the-arts in many areas of AI to estimate when it's reasonable to expect human level AI development. Predictions of prominent AI researchers vary broadly from very pessimistic predictions of Andrew Ng to much more moderate predictions of Geoffrey Hinton and optimistic predictions of Shane Legg, DeepMind cofounder. Given huge rate of progress in recent years and this broad range of predictions of AI experts, AI safety questions are also discussed.