Adams Conditioning and Likelihood Ratio Transfer Mediated Inference
This work addresses formal reasoning for forensic experts and legal decision-makers, but it appears incremental as it builds on existing concepts like Adams conditioning without introducing a new paradigm.
The paper tackles the problem of formalizing belief transfer in legal Bayesian inference among multiple agents, focusing on likelihood ratio communication and subsequent belief revision, and establishes logical principles using probabilistic arithmetic in a meadow with Adams conditioning.
Bayesian inference as applied in a legal setting is about belief transfer and involves a plurality of agents and communication protocols. A forensic expert (FE) may communicate to a trier of fact (TOF) first its value of a certain likelihood ratio with respect to FE's belief state as represented by a probability function on FE's proposition space. Subsequently FE communicates its recently acquired confirmation that a certain evidence proposition is true. Then TOF performs likelihood ratio transfer mediated reasoning thereby revising their own belief state. The logical principles involved in likelihood transfer mediated reasoning are discussed in a setting where probabilistic arithmetic is done within a meadow, and with Adams conditioning placed in a central role.