Behavior-Based Machine-Learning: A Hybrid Approach for Predicting Human Decision Making
This work addresses improving prediction accuracy for human decision behavior, which is incremental as it combines existing methods with behavioral theories.
The paper tackled predicting human decision making under risk and ambiguity by using machine learning with behavioral features, showing that their model captured 14 choice biases and outperformed other learning-based models in a competition.
A large body of work in behavioral fields attempts to develop models that describe the way people, as opposed to rational agents, make decisions. A recent Choice Prediction Competition (2015) challenged researchers to suggest a model that captures 14 classic choice biases and can predict human decisions under risk and ambiguity. The competition focused on simple decision problems, in which human subjects were asked to repeatedly choose between two gamble options. In this paper we present our approach for predicting human decision behavior: we suggest to use machine learning algorithms with features that are based on well-established behavioral theories. The basic idea is that these psychological features are essential for the representation of the data and are important for the success of the learning process. We implement a vanilla model in which we train SVM models using behavioral features that rely on the psychological properties underlying the competition baseline model. We show that this basic model captures the 14 choice biases and outperforms all the other learning-based models in the competition. The preliminary results suggest that such hybrid models can significantly improve the prediction of human decision making, and are a promising direction for future research.