When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts
This informs public policy and researchers by providing evidence-based timelines for AI progress, though it is incremental as it aggregates existing expert opinions without new technical breakthroughs.
The paper tackles the problem of anticipating AI advances by surveying machine learning experts on when AI will outperform humans in various tasks, finding predictions such as language translation by 2024 and a 50% chance of AI outperforming humans in all tasks in 45 years.
Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) will transform modern life by reshaping transportation, health, science, finance, and the military. To adapt public policy, we need to better anticipate these advances. Here we report the results from a large survey of machine learning researchers on their beliefs about progress in AI. Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a truck (by 2027), working in retail (by 2031), writing a bestselling book (by 2049), and working as a surgeon (by 2053). Researchers believe there is a 50% chance of AI outperforming humans in all tasks in 45 years and of automating all human jobs in 120 years, with Asian respondents expecting these dates much sooner than North Americans. These results will inform discussion amongst researchers and policymakers about anticipating and managing trends in AI.