An Unsupervised Method for Estimating the Global Horizontal Irradiance from Photovoltaic Power Measurements
This addresses the need for accurate solar irradiance assessment for forecasting PV power generation, particularly for small and medium-sized plants where on-ground measurements are costly, though it is incremental as it builds on existing physical models.
The paper tackles the problem of estimating global horizontal irradiance (GHI) from photovoltaic power measurements, presenting an unsupervised method that outperforms satellite-based services, especially at high temporal resolutions.
In this paper, we present a method to determine the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) from the power measurements of one or more PV systems, located in the same neighborhood. The method is completely unsupervised and is based on a physical model of a PV plant. The precise assessment of solar irradiance is pivotal for the forecast of the electric power generated by photovoltaic (PV) plants. However, on-ground measurements are expensive and are generally not performed for small and medium-sized PV plants. Satellite-based services represent a valid alternative to on site measurements, but their space-time resolution is limited. Results from two case studies located in Switzerland are presented. The performance of the proposed method at assessing GHI is compared with that of free and commercial satellite services. Our results show that the presented method is generally better than satellite-based services, especially at high temporal resolutions.