Prediction in Cyber Security: Complications and Consolations
This work addresses the problem of integrating prediction methods into cyber security for researchers and practitioners, but it is incremental as it focuses on conceptual mapping rather than new empirical results.
The paper tackles the challenge of applying prediction methods from various disciplines to cyber security by presenting a five-element ontology of complications and mapping existing concepts to it through a malware analysis example.
Uncertainty, error, and similar complications add to the many challenges of cyber security. Various disciplines have developed methods for managing these complications, but applying these methods involves disambiguating overlapping terminology and determining a method's proper usage in the context of cyber security, which has unique properties. This process is here guided by the need for prediction, which is required for cyber security to become more like traditional sciences. A motivating malware analysis example is defined. A five-element ontology of complications for prediction is presented, and concepts from numerous disciplines are mapped to it in terms of the motivating example.