Multi-Level Deep Cascade Trees for Conversion Rate Prediction in Recommendation System
This work addresses conversion rate prediction for e-commerce platforms, presenting an incremental improvement with novel tree ensemble methods.
The paper tackles the challenge of conversion rate prediction in recommendation systems, which is difficult due to data sparsity, by proposing multi-Level Deep Cascade Trees (ldcTree) and its variants, achieving effectiveness demonstrated through experimental results on offline datasets and online deployment.
Developing effective and efficient recommendation methods is very challenging for modern e-commerce platforms. Generally speaking, two essential modules named "Click-Through Rate Prediction" (\textit{CTR}) and "Conversion Rate Prediction" (\textit{CVR}) are included, where \textit{CVR} module is a crucial factor that affects the final purchasing volume directly. However, it is indeed very challenging due to its sparseness nature. In this paper, we tackle this problem by proposing multi-Level Deep Cascade Trees (\textit{ldcTree}), which is a novel decision tree ensemble approach. It leverages deep cascade structures by stacking Gradient Boosting Decision Trees (\textit{GBDT}) to effectively learn feature representation. In addition, we propose to utilize the cross-entropy in each tree of the preceding \textit{GBDT} as the input feature representation for next level \textit{GBDT}, which has a clear explanation, i.e., a traversal from root to leaf nodes in the next level \textit{GBDT} corresponds to the combination of certain traversals in the preceding \textit{GBDT}. The deep cascade structure and the combination rule enable the proposed \textit{ldcTree} to have a stronger distributed feature representation ability. Moreover, inspired by ensemble learning, we propose an Ensemble \textit{ldcTree} (\textit{E-ldcTree}) to encourage the model's diversity and enhance the representation ability further. Finally, we propose an improved Feature learning method based on \textit{EldcTree} (\textit{F-EldcTree}) for taking adequate use of weak and strong correlation features identified by pre-trained \textit{GBDT} models. Experimental results on off-line data set and online deployment demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.