A Data-Driven Framework for Assessing Cold Load Pick-up Demand in Service Restoration
This work addresses the practical challenge of CLPU demand estimation for utilities, offering a data-driven method that leverages smart meter data to improve restoration planning.
The paper proposes a data-driven framework using smart meter data to assess cold load pick-up (CLPU) demand in distribution system restoration, achieving accurate estimation of CLPU demand ratio and increase at both feeder and customer levels, validated with real data and outage cases.
Cold load pick-up (CLPU) has been a critical concern to utilities. Researchers and industry practitioners have underlined the impact of CLPU on distribution system design and service restoration. The recent large-scale deployment of smart meters has provided the industry with a huge amount of data that is highly granular, both temporally and spatially. In this paper, a data-driven framework is proposed for assessing CLPU demand of residential customers using smart meter data. The proposed framework consists of two interconnected layers: 1) At the feeder level, a nonlinear auto-regression model is applied to estimate the diversified demand during the system restoration and calculate the CLPU demand ratio. 2) At the customer level, Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM) and probabilistic reasoning are used to quantify the CLPU demand increase. The proposed methodology has been verified using real smart meter data and outage cases.